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Dole Food Company, Inc Common S Message Board

datamatters2003 129 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 12:16 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2002
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  • Here is a long quote from OptionMonster's article originating yesterday and re-published today. It indicates a development bullish for FCX. Note also the heavy insider buying at SSCO, which, while a different company, presumably indicates SCCO's CEO is not bearish on overall copper mining stocks' future.

    "optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker program detected heavy call buying, with a big focus on contracts expiring this Friday. It first appeared in the September 35s for $0.16 to $0.30, followed by prints later in the day for as much as $0.48. Some 23,800 contracts traded overall, more than twice the previous open interest in the strike, indicating that new positions were initiated.

    The buying continued with the September 34.50s, which traded almost 14,000 contracts mostly for $0.36 to $0.63 in volume far above that strike's open interest of 1,833 contracts. The September 35.50 calls saw volume of more than 4,400 as well.

    Long calls lock in the price where a stock can be purchased, letting investors position for a rally with limited cost. They carry less risk because the most that can be lost is the price of the options, no matter how far shares may fall. (See our Education section)

    FCX surged with the option trades and ended the session up 1.66 percent to $34.89. The mining and energy company rebounded after holding support at $34 for a week and as sentiment turned in favor of global-growth stocks and commodities. Shares peaked around $39 two months ago and have been sliding since.

    Total option volume in the name was 5 times greater than average in the session, with calls outnumbering puts by a bullish 6-to-1 ratio."

    Best wishes,
    Data

  • Nice to see FCX rise decently the last 45 minutes of each of the last three days. Also, note early July 10, 2014, The Street reported HSBC initiated coverage on FXC with a "buy" rating and a $44 price target.

    Combine the price target with the dividend, and FCX's prospects must look quite good to HSBC.

  • According to Yahoo Finance, FCX after hours jumped to $33.53. I would not base an investment or trading decision on that data point, of course, but FYI.
    What do people think of Mr. Moffett? He still has sold nothing per the SEC insider trading filings and acquired more than $5.4 million at more than $31 per share 1/31/14, according to Yahoo Finance. Is he more knowledgeable or a better predictor of future FCX share price and financial results than is Mr. Adkerson?
    Second, has the stock of any alternative copper supplier to China/Japan/Korea increased dramatically the last few weeks? Thank you. --Data

  • Nice to see MarketWatch on 11/18/13 at 11:29 a.m. reporting UGP as among its top picks for 2014. HSBC likes the energy sector for 2014, which also bodes well for UGP's sector. Within energy, HSBC likes Latin American energy.

    Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that emerging markets stock look like a better valuation than the U.S. stock market. Although of course emerging markets is a wide area, maybe the Middle East and Russia can be ruled out (HSBC is among those not favoring Russia in 2014), which narrows it somewhat. Then ask yourself, would you rather be in Asia with North Korea and China so potentially volatile or in Latin America? However that may be, the company specific recommendation of HSBC is notable.

    If you profit with UGP, consider donating some to a worthy charity. It's the season of joy and hope!
    Data

  • datamatters2003 by datamatters2003 Aug 16, 2013 11:26 AM Flag

    I am not a weekly/daily trader and more a long-term investor, but CNBC contributor Brian Kelly before the market began today advised selling FCX. Here are his posted credentials:
    "Brian Kelly is Founder of Brian Kelly Capital. Brian has over 17 years investment experience trading US & international equities, forex, options, futures, metals, and commodities. He has traded for some of the largest hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds. Mr. Kelly is a CNBC contributor and can be seen regularly on the show Fast Money. Mr. Kelly is a graduate of the University of Vermont where he received a BS in Finance. He also holds an MBA from Babson Graduate School of Business with a concentration in finance and econometrics. "

    Here are gross margin and operating margin data for FCX and three other miners, per Yahoo Finance:
    FCX 0.39 gross, 0.27 operating
    SCCO 0.55, 0.47
    NEM 0.51, 0.03
    VALE 0.43, 0.29
    SCCO would be the closest competitor to FCX among the three.
    Best wishes. ---Data

  • Reply to

    insider selling

    by racehorse9 Feb 13, 2013 1:29 PM
    datamatters2003 datamatters2003 Mar 4, 2013 2:00 PM Flag

    Racehorse,

    To what insider selling do your refer?
    Also, of the insiders, whose buying or selling do you believe is the most astute?
    Finally, what are the competitors of MUR with which you like to compare financial / operating ratios? The ratios looked good to me compared with the industry on P/S and PEG and gross profit margin, though admittedly the free cash flow was difficult to evaluate (not uncommon for entities that include drilling).
    I am new to following MUR.
    Anyone else on this board is of course free to inform, also. Thank you,
    Data

  • Seeking Alpha reports 1/18/13 that Jim Cramer on Mad Money likes DOLE and would buy now rather than sell.

    Separately, Yahoo Finance reports DOLE's price/sales ratio is 0.13, versus 0.74 for the industry average, 1.39 for the S & P 500, and 1.07 for Vanguard's mid-cap ETF (ticker symbol VO). DOLE's PEG ratio is reportedly 1.39 versus 1.78 for the industry average. Those ratios strike me as significant good news for DOLE.

    True, you get a very small operating margin in this industry. But that is nothing new. And you get DOLE's realty holdings, which combined with the fact people need to eat gives DOLE a very reasonable inflation hedge, in my view.

  • datamatters2003 datamatters2003 Oct 11, 2012 11:14 AM Flag

    Many do believe that consumer staples, such as stocks in the food industry, will hold up better if the economy stays flat or drops than the typical stock.
    As for Zoomlik's comment about his book value calculation, I appreciate Zoomlik's humility in stating his calcuation could be wrong. First, Zoomlik reports he/she excluded intangibles. It is unwise to exclude all intangibles on a brand so well-known as Dole. Dole's name has significant value in the fruit industry and, IMHO, also in the veg industry. One associates Dole with a clean, safe product rather than a bargain basement product that might be sold by a less easily-located company that didn't care much about tort claims ever filed against it or about its reputation being sullied. Second, Jim Cramer's research, led by a Harvard honors graduate with Wall St. experience, suggests a much higher value, definitely at least $15/share. It reflects the Cramer team's view after the spin off announced in Sept. Read it if you wish, freely available via hyperlinks at Yahoo Finance under "News" if you type in the ticker symbol DOLE. Third, S & P recently evaluated Dole financially. Although S & P did not raise Dole's credit rating post-spin off, S & P did change the outlook to positive from its basic neutral category.

    If you profit from buying DOLE, please consider sharing some of the profit with a charity. Best wishes,
    Data

  • datamatters2003 by datamatters2003 Apr 13, 2012 1:15 PM Flag

    Although I hope to buy RSU or SSO on a dip, I am not ready at current level and plan to wait till lower. Consider:

    ---Chinese GDP data. At first the business e-journalist spin was it was just a little below expectations, basically consistent with expectations. But it was actually more than 3.5% below the expectations Bloomberg reported yesterday. SPY isn't down anywhere close to 3.5% yet from yesterday and of course RSU isn't down anywhere close to 7% from yesterday. I recognize China is not the U.S. stock market and that an exact correlation won't occur and shouldn't occur due to US corporate earnings, etc. (which could be better or worse than 3.5% below the true whisper numbers rather than the published expectations). But you see my point on the significance of China's disappointment not yet being fully absorbed in the U.S.

    ---Historically, there is a little upward trading bump in the US stock markets the week after Good Friday, but not a medium-term bump or a bump of interest to investors as distinguished from traders. See Stock Traders' Almanac. This trader-type updraft has not occurred this week, overall, if you compare RSU or SPY closings to the 4/5/12 closing prices. This suggests to me next week may be lower, because it won't have the benefit of any calendar updraft.

    ---Increased government regulation and even prosecutions are in the news extensively. This reminds us that under a Democratic Executive Branch, more corporate expense will occur complying with regulations and less corporate nimbleness will be allowed. I recognize there are many good bureaucrats of both parties, and that the Democrats won the White House and thus deserve to implement their agenda of more red tape (at until November). But it is not a positive things for April stock prices.

    Best wishes,
    Data

  • datamatters2003 by datamatters2003 Apr 13, 2012 12:32 PM Flag

    Although I hope to buy RSU on a dip, I am not ready at the $47.85 level and plan to wait till lower. Consider:

    ---At last look, SPY was down 0.84%, SSO was down 1.73%, but RSU was only down 1.34%. A precise correlation rarely occurs, but this suggests RSU is the odd man out and should be down more than 1.6% to track SPY more closely.

    ---Chinese GDP data. At first the business e-journalist spin was it was just a little below expectations, basically consistent with expectations. But it was actually more than 3.5% below the expectations Bloomberg reported yesterday. SPY isn't down anywhere close to 3.5% yet from yesterday and of course RSU isn't down anywhere close to 7% from yesterday. I recognize China is not the U.S. stock market and that an exact correlation won't occur and shouldn't occur due to US corporate earnings, etc. (which could be better or worse than 3.5% below the true whisper numbers rather than the published expectations). But you see my point on the significance of China's disappointment not yet being fully absorbed in the U.S.

    ---Historically, there is a little upward trading bump in the US stock markets the week after Good Friday, but not a medium-term bump or a bump of interest to investors as distinguished from traders. See Stock Traders' Almanac. This trader-type updraft has not occurred this week, overall, if you compare RSU or SPY closings to the 4/5/12 closing prices. This suggests to me next week may be lower, because it won't have the benefit of any calendar updraft.

    ---Increased government regulation and even prosecutions are in the news extensively. This reminds us that under a Democratic Executive Branch, more corporate expense will occur complying with regulations and less corporate nimbleness will be allowed. I recognize there are many good bureaucrats of both parties, and that the Democrats won the White House and thus deserve to implement their agenda of more red tape (at until November). But it is not a positive things for April stock prices.

    Best wishes,
    Data

  • datamatters2003 by datamatters2003 Mar 13, 2012 1:15 PM Flag

    Kinder Morgan is a competitor of ETP and offers several publicly-traded securities, including KMP. KMP is favored over ETP by the securities analyst firm Valentum in an article posted 3/12/12 in Seeking Alpha.

    Here is some background on Valentum:
    "We think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy." Brian Nelson is chief analyst and founder of Valentum. According to his bio, previously "Mr. Nelson worked as a director at Morningstar, where he was responsible for training and methodology development within the firm's equity and credit research department."

    According to Reuters Securities (media source, not itself an analyst), ETP remains better rated by the mean score of the aggregation of analysts than KMP. But Reuters reports ETP's mean score has worsened in the last month while KMP's has improved.

  • datamatters2003 datamatters2003 Feb 27, 2012 2:17 PM Flag

    Good detail point. I rated your post 5 stars.

    However, if my first factor is correct, it will tend to exert much more upward pressure on KMR's share price than on KMI's. This is because all investors, taxable account or not, can continue to consider KMR but some investors in a taxed account will wish to reduce holdings in high cash dividend payors like KMI if it appears Pres. Obama has a decent chance to win re-election.

    Thus, I still strongly favor KMR. Again, thanks for the post.

  • As most readers will know, KMI has an affiliated entity that pays stock dividends rather than cash. That sister entity is KMR. My KMR message board post on no insider selling and tax advantages was 12/7/11. At today's last check by me, KMR was down today at $81.05, KMR is still up over 12.96% since the 12/7/11 closing price.

    I bought some more KMR today on the dip, to replace some shares I donated to a charity on 2/24/12. Although I haven't had time to analyze insider trading, I note:

    ---Pres. Obama's push to tax cash dividends at a higher rate will make KMR's advantage of stock dividends even nicer (compared with KMI's or KMP's distributions, which are either dividends or return of capital and thus either way eventually increase the shareholder's tax liability if the KMP shares have appreciated in price). Although I oppose many of Pres. Obama's policies and will vote against him this fall, the fall election could be a win-win situation for KMR: If Pres. Obama wins, the uncertainty around high cash dividend companies will increase and KMR's advantages likely lead to marketplace outperformance. If a Republican wins, KMR investors would still has a 15% tax advantage over investors in companies that pay cash dividends and the tendency of Republicans to favor businesses that help U.S. energy production would be a plus for MLPs (and presumably even more so for U.S. o & g drillers and/or integrated oil companies).

    ---The (I believe unwise) decision of the Obama administration to delay approval, if any, of the Keystone XL pipeline will favor Kinder Morgan entities, including KMI and KMR, somewhat. The Keystone XL pipeline is spearheaded by a Kinder Morgan competitor.

    Best,
    Data

  • My post on no insider selling and tax advantages was 12/7/11. Thanks for your comments on that post. At today's most recent (down) price of $81.05, KMR is still up over 12.96% since the 12/7/11 closing price.

    I bought some more KMR today on the dip, to replace some shares I donated to a charity on 2/24/12. Although I haven't had time to analyze insider trading, I note:

    ---Pres. Obama's push to tax cash dividends at a higher rate will make KMR's advantage of stock dividends even nicer. Although I oppose many of Pres. Obama's policies and will vote against him this fall, the fall election could be a win-win situation for KMR: If Pres. Obama wins, the uncertainty around high cash dividend companies will increase and KMR's advantages likely lead to marketplace outperformance. If a Republican wins, KMR investors would still has a 15% tax advantage over investors in companies that pay cash dividends and the tendency of Republicans to favor businesses that help U.S. energy production would be a plus for MLPs (and presumably even more so for U.S. o & g drillers and/or integrated oil companies).

    ---The (I believe unwise) decision of the Obama administration to delay approval, if any, of the Keystone XL pipeline will favor Kinder Morgan entities, including KMR, somewhat. The Keystone XL pipeline is spearheaded by a Kinder Morgan competitor.

    If you profit handsomely on KMR, consider donating some appreciated stock to charity! Best,
    Data

  • Here is an excerpt from a Forbes magazine article today. I added the bracketed language for context of the overall article:

    "Some markets [such as Europe] may have been oversold, and the rebound appears to be a reversion to the mean. Further opportunities for appreciation are there, assuming that the euro zone successfully navigates its way to some form of central fiscal authority and hints of economic growth return to the continent.

    "There are a large number of non-financial European companies trading well below their 52-week highs even following the recent rebound, in some cases 30% or lower than their highs. Valuations appear compelling with many companies having P/E ratios below 10, although this may also signal weaker profit expectations in coming quarters.

    Several of these reasonably valued names fall within what we consider the high quality category, that is companies possessing good brands, a global footprint, a strong balance sheet, and excellent cash flow even in difficult times, and there’s often the added bonus of a generous dividend yield. Income oriented investors might consider taking note of some of the dividend plays coming out of Europe.

    Investors, mindful of the risks, can participate in an eventual sustained recovery in Europe using either individual stocks or exchange traded funds (ETFs). There is an ETF specific to nearly every European country, examples include the EWG for Germany, and iShares MSCI France (EWQ)."

    The Forbes author specifically mentions Daimler and Siemens, which, at last report, make up more than 15.5% of EWG.

  • datamatters2003 by datamatters2003 Jan 17, 2012 11:48 AM Flag

    This is from a 1/6/12 post on the UL message board. UL is the American Depository Receipt stock for the largest component of EWN.
    "Bought some UL today. Even if it appreciates back to $33.16 per share, the dividend yield would still be large at 3.71%. No foreign tax is withheld on UL dividends, making UL appropriate for IRA or regular investment accounts. According to Yahoo Finance, UL's operating margin is 13.2% compared with 6.21% for the industry. Per Yahoo Finance: UL's Return on Equity is 33.14% versus 9% for the industry, 13.65% for Del Monte, 9.07% for Kraft, 15.91% for Danone, 19.38% for Agro Tech Foods (Indian entity of similar market cap), 35.87% for Heinz, and 20.73% for Lancaster Colony."

    If you seek a higher dividend than EWN, a lower Beta than EWN and also like exposure to emerging markets, you might wish to consider directly investing in UL.

    --Data

    P.S.: We have a modest long position in UL (less than $7500).

  • UL has done well since my post on 1/6/12, rising about 1.99%. It has risen above its 50-day moving average. Although I am usually a longer-term investory than those who pay much heed to the 50-day, enough short-term investors exist that this crossing would seem significantly bullish for UL.

    Also, note European ETFs such as EWN (Netherlands) and VGK are doing great today. The fact they are up even more than UL suggests UL still has room to rise today, even.

    Data

  • Bought some UL today. Even if it appreciates back to $33.16 per share, the dividend yield would still be large at 3.71%. No foreign tax is withheld on UL dividends, making UL appropriate for IRA or regular investment accounts. According to Yahoo Finance, UL's operating margin is 13.2% compared with 6.21% for the industry. Per Yahoo Finance: UL's Return on Equity is 33.14% versus 9% for the industry, 13.65% for Del Monte, 9.07% for Kraft, 15.91% for Danone, 19.38% for Agro Tech Foods (Indian entity of similar market cap), 35.87% for Heinz, and 20.73% for Lancaster Colony.

    If you profit from UL, please consider sharing some of the profit with an honorable charity. Happy new year.

  • Medium- and long-term prospects for Kinder Morgan and other MLPs are likely improved, everything else equal, by the news of a new ETF being formed. Here is an excerpt of the news from ETF Trends, as published yesterday through Yahoo Finance's website:
    "According to a recent Securities and Exchange Commission exemptive relief filing , Exchange Traded Concepts will help money managers Yorkville ETF Advisors market the new Yorkville High Income MLP ETF . The new fund will invest in MLPs engaged in oil exploration and production, natural gas exploration and production; the sale, marketing, extraction and transportation of other resources."
    This should increase demand, everything else equal, for KMR, KMP, and other master limited partnership securities.

    Happy new year,
    Data

  • Medium- and long-term prospects for MLPs are likely improved, everything else equal, by the news of a new ETF being formed. Here is an excerpt of the news from ETF Trends, as published yesterday through Yahoo Finance's website:
    "According to a recent Securities and Exchange Commission exemptive relief filing , Exchange Traded Concepts will help money managers Yorkville ETF Advisors market the new Yorkville High Income MLP ETF . The new fund will invest in MLPs engaged in oil exploration and production, natural gas exploration and production; the sale, marketing, extraction and transportation of other resources."
    This should increase demand, everything else equal, for KMR, KMP, and other master limited partnership securities.

    Happy new year,
    Data

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