I'd be surprised at any irate increase before Q4. The REIT market and big bank stocks say so too. Emerging makes are getting pounded by the strong USD as well, . You can count on 2015 fixed income yields to plummet too while stocks go full #$%$ on volatility.
Rspen the Fed is responsible for the largest, most controversial, experimental, and unprecedented monetary policy decisions since forever. Markets have been so distorted and disclocated by it that for a long while equities rallied on #$%$ job numbers in expectation of more QE juice. My only hope is it unwinds some way, somehow, someday. Make no mistake, I have my doomsday stack (worst case) or valuable mementos for my kids (best case).
Its just naive to write off everything but "hard money" when there's money to be made elsewhere in this BS of an economy.
Sorry Golbugger, it just isnt so. Yes we export inflation and yes the dollar is asymmetrically related to other currencies, but there will be no "PetroYuan or PetroRuble anytime soon.
Tell me something good about the accessibility of China's bond market compared to the U.S. ? Yup, silence. FYI only about 10% of Chinese hold savings in bonds...it's all in the banks. They may never get to where we are this decade. How about currency controls, non-transparency, and pricing inefficiency. And a fixed interest rate policy ? Forget a viable bond market until they fix all that.
As for Russia, look at what the mere drop in oil price has done. They are not developed and diversified enough to withstand it. They are selling foreign reserves to prop up the ruble. They may sell gold. Yes, they are trading with the Chinese and "bypassing" the dollar but that's just to stay afloat. One might think that the U.S. and Saudis PLANNED this oil thingy to hurt poor Vlad over Ukraine. Hmmm.
Look, the USA took over world financial leadership after WWII. Freedom, democracy, and multilateralism keep us here. Look at these other fools. They are barely catching up after decades of communism and backwardness. Yeah, we're an oligarchy, one-percenters, and I hate that. So vote for Ron Paul, he's from down here in H-town, loves silver and hates the Fed.
"The only sector thriving is financial" Really? Look at GS, WFC, BAC. The only bumps they get are with I-rate talk. All exWFC had a #$%$ year.
Oil here (and not those leveraged easy-come easy go shale plays) will do fine if you sit tight and collect your divvies. Good MLPs like VNRAP (which is UP from lows in spite of oil drop because they are hedged) can still make you money.
And those who cant afford houses, or "kids" who dont want one ? They rent apartments or condos. Check out AVB, WRI, and EQR and let me know how the latest "crises" and "market shocks" have hurt them.
Not busting yer balls, Fitz just keepin it real.
For sure they called "BS" on Super Mario, because those dudes know how to run a clean house. Yes, they inflicted some devastating pain on some FX traders, and they hammered their own exporters and tourism industry but that's nothing compared to whats down the road for those who do not heed the lesson.
"There's no inflation" as long as you don't eat, drive, use medical care, etc. But the Fed has the only opinion that matters, and its "by their measure" that decision are made. I believe we cant afford and wont see a rate hike anytime soon, so PMs will be safe from that standpoint. Fear and volatility are the main plays now, and outweigh the strong dollars effect on the metals for now.
"The dollar is TOAST" compared to what ? Its been on multimonth unstoppable surge, and none of the usual suspects threaten it. EUR weakness is upon us, the ruble is kaput, and we lead the world with our anemic "recovery." Prettiest pig, buddy
Precipice of what ? Maybe the central banks credibility. Since SNB pre-empted Draghi's move on QE (hence telling the world in no uncertain terms that they were expecting a huge amount of QE and wanted no part of the euro) it will be interesting to see if Draghi fires, and what it's effect will be. If markets it's a dud, we have our answer.
Just like FXCM and I'm sure many other FX brokers, their clients traded francs highly levered. Can't really blame them since EUR:CHF never changes more than a few tenths of a percentage point every day. Until it doesn't.