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Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

davebugs 6078 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 2, 2016 7:12 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2000
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  • Reply to

    About Yahoo

    by cabrilo4826 Feb 2, 2016 5:06 PM
    davebugs davebugs Feb 2, 2016 7:12 PM Flag

    I don't think I can handle more "improvements" dreamed up by clueless folks.

    And items like the inability to stop pennystock folks but block real links from being posted.

    Last week they took away the "local" tab for news. Which wasn't always local - lots of adds and international stuff too.

    Sure wish Google would improve offerings in these area's.

  • Reply to

    15th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcx_one Dec 18, 2015 8:32 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 30, 2016 11:16 PM Flag

    dcx,

    Always look forward to it!

    Thanks for doing this another year.

  • Reply to

    Covered Calls

    by stormfront2020 Jan 25, 2016 1:57 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 29, 2016 5:37 PM Flag

    Well, I have more shares than that, nothing outrageous though. But roughly scattered evenly over 4 accounts.

    I'd likely write against all shares in a specific account.

    The account that I'm up 169% is my best candidate. First lot was on 7/1/2010 at 20.50. Second lot was on 3/4/2011 for 27.65. That's basically a 5.6% dividend too if you look at it that way.

    So I am still thinking about doing this to lets say 1/4 of my holdings. I never write against more than 1/2 of my holdings no matter what as a personal rule.

    AWK may be due for a pullback soon because of the nice run, if the overall market tanks I'm not sure what effect it will have.

    I'd likely use the simple finviz chart to try and write when I think we're close to the top after a nice run, and it looks like we may be close.

    I'm not much of a chart guy but often use this simple chart to tweak buy/sell common, write/buy options. Chart looks different today than the other day (which is part of why I didn't write) now it looks like around 66 may be this short term high. Next question will be how far out to go in time.

  • Reply to

    Covered Calls

    by stormfront2020 Jan 25, 2016 1:57 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 29, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    I tried to reply to your post the other night but Yahoo lost it.

    I have looked at doing this twice in the past, and was glad that I didn't. Just about the time you think this is a sleepy stock it gets a spike it seems.

    I looked again the other night when I saw your post and I believe they closed at 1.00/1.25 that night (or atleast the night I looked - maybe last night or the night before) and decided that 65 was gonna happen.

    I will look again soon. I'm up an average of 100% with todays move (I started buying shortly after they became a public company again). I did sell some trading shares that I caught a quick 15 or 20% on over the past several years.

    AWK is up to 15% of my portfolio but I'm really hardly worried about that. But often when I have doubled my money(and thus doubled my dividend rate) I'll write some calls. This one I'm hesitant to do that with though.

    Don't how much is due to safe stock while the markets are crazy.

    Don't know if Michigan in headlines is helping?

    My reason for owning is still the same. The only utility that you can't shop rates for and you have no choice in who supplies it to your home or business (unlike electricity or gas).

    As a result AWK should always have atleast a "normal return" as an Economist would say. And when folks/markets become irrational I believe some incremental money may come here. And when that money leaves I'm still not real concerned. I hate to call it a "widows and orphans stock" but I think it is the modern day best pick that I have run across.

  • Reply to

    For Dave

    by dcx_one Jan 26, 2016 9:06 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 28, 2016 5:06 PM Flag

    yahoo strikes again! My "local" selection has disappeared for local news.

    At first I thought maybe firefox did it so I launched IE and same thing.

    Local (which wasn't always local anyways) and these MB's are the 2 things I used Yahoo for.

    I believe they will drive even more users away.

    Hey - what happened to our resident "one star" poster?

    I just noticed they haven't been showing up - like on this thread for instance.

  • Reply to

    For Dave

    by dcx_one Jan 26, 2016 9:06 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 26, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    Thanks! I found it that way!

    I had been backing into it by clicking on you, then going to your posts(most current) but that didn't want to work the other night.

    Hey - Yahoo's crack team must be working for my bank now. They took away the ability to sort by check number in account activity. Kinda makes it hard to reconcile a checkbook. And their "internet guru's" don't talk with or take suggestions from the public. I was even going to be nice.... Instead I'm switching banks, they have been getting worse anyways.

    When development and marketing folks think they know more than the users this is what happens. After all what could users possibly know?

    I was a computer guy for 30 years. Why some tech kid takes away functionality, and why anyone lets them get away with it I simply don't understand. If you must impress us with the fancy stuff we won't use but you think is great, your mother will be proud(unless she actually uses the software), but just leave what actually works in place.

    These folks who know nothing but Microsoft products aren't playing with a full deck so I guess it's not all their fault. But I get tired of paying the price.

    Heck these MB's can stop legitimate links but the penny stock guys constantly get thru - amazing, incompetent, really wish there was a viable alternative. I believe Google is missing a huge opportunity here. SI I haven't been to in a while.

    o.k. I feel better now....

  • Reply to

    15th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcx_one Dec 18, 2015 8:32 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 25, 2016 9:16 PM Flag

    o.k. today's update is so buried that I can't find it either following this thread or looking by your posts.

    Would you consider a new/clean thread?

    Also while I'm not winning the contest my stock AP did go ex-dividend in January and will be paid in January. Due to the nature of the contest I doubt that dividends have ever needed to be considered in the past.

  • Reply to

    15th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcx_one Dec 18, 2015 8:32 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 30, 2015 10:41 PM Flag

    I don't have time for new research so I'll pick AP.

    A small heavy industry cyclical stock I've owned and traded for almost as long as KLIC.

    A few years ago the really old fella that still came into work everyday passed on. The family trusts were selling like crazy. I'm guessing a year ago Mario Gabelli started investing heavily. I believe he has atleast one seat on the board. Some officer changes, etc.

    A recent acquisition (time will tell how wise it was) reflects possible new beginnings at this historically sleepy heavy industrial cyclical. In the past the large shareholders used the dividend as a private piggy bank. I would not be shocked if they cut the dividend - that would be prudent after spending a bunch of cash by this micro cap.

    It's dividend is currently 7%. Market cap just over 100million. Trading at half what the years high was.

    Didn't take as bad of a beating as I though after the acquisition in tax loss selling season.

    So while not a #$%$ stock. The acquisition at this time of the year may cause an updraft next year. If they cut the dividend it'll drop 20-30% I'd guess. No cut it may go up 20-30%. VERY thinly traded.

    Not a "#$%$" stock, but perhaps a "transitional" stock. Just hoping the transition is recognized in January!

    I'm long a bunch of trading lots (it's cyclical don't be afraid to sell as it rises) all down from 2% to over 40% as I type. (Just like KLIC it's been with the house's money for years).

    Large spreads, thinly traded. It's nothing to get a 100 share fill with 70 1 lot shares in the detail. Not sure what that game is.

    "scale in, scale out, online commissions are cheap"

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha

    by storagelh Dec 23, 2015 12:19 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 23, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Hadn't been to SA in a while. Was it written yesterday by Martin?

  • Reply to

    12.10

    by storagelh Dec 22, 2015 1:24 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 23, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    I own some Jan 12's (had some expire worthless last OE).

    I'm watching options as well. When we were recently below 11 the JAN 12's were still relatively expensive but I did not add to common or options.

    End of year/January is looking pretty good at the present time. Almost makes a fella just want to buy some SPY's...

    But i"m setting on my hands. I expect to lighten up in January on several stocks. I didn't do much tax loss buying this year (when others were selling), just been too busy.

    Gotta watch the #$%$ stock picking contest this year too - often good speculative idea's there.

  • Reply to

    15th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcx_one Dec 18, 2015 8:32 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 22, 2015 1:18 AM Flag

    Thanks for hosting this annual event.

    Often some very interesting choices.

    A lot of years an ETF with these posters pics would have beat the market by a decent margin.

  • davebugs davebugs Dec 17, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    I'd LOVE to see it!

    I'm not much of a chart guy - I just use the simple one at finviz and based on the free 1 year chart there 19.50 is likely gonna cause problems.

    I missed my second annual meeting in like a dozen years this year so I don't know what was said. Or if any tough questions were asked.

    So I don't have much feel for if Fran is ever gonna make us money like the founder did.

  • Reply to

    The guy who said $9 target price was right

    by apollo567 Dec 17, 2015 11:47 AM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 17, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    Thinly traded micro-cap stock with little following in a cyclical industry that should have likely already cut it's dividend.

    Double normal volume.

    Then they spend a bunch on an acquisition. During a down cycle(which IS the time to buy - if one feels the need).

    Tax loss selling season less than a month after acquisition is announced. As of today AP is less than half of it's yearly high.

    General down market.

    Yesterday a tiny interest rate increase - but the first raise in 9 years?

    I think they have to address the dividend now, and that could send AP lower in addition to less cash.

    Where will AP be in 3 years? Atleast Mario has board representation and you have to believe rubber stamped this acquisition. I'm still thinking Mario being around is a good thing.

    I have all invested here that I want to commit to.

    If you believe this acquisition and IMO the likely dividend cut that's coming will make this a much better company in a year or two now is the time to add shares.

    I may pick up just a few to sell on any January bounce.

    I have cyclically traded this stock for many years. At the present time the shares I do own average out to an over 40% loss - not good. Never even been close to this underwater.

    And I can't think of anyone who would want to buy AP.

    So the only play here is the obvious. They gotta make this acquisition work.

    A foundry they purchased is actually close to me.

  • Reply to

    In the day

    by lost_my_shorts Dec 10, 2015 2:52 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 17, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    Not meant as an insult at all.

    I am not an industry insoder.

    Bonderbill, Vlad, cool evening, forget ended up 3 handles the fella that had the chip stock trader website for a while his name was John.

    The fella that literally wrote a book on options trading - ironically I think I forget his real ID and occasionally he'd accidentally post under his wife's ID Joan9999 or something.

    And others including the fella that would give us parking lot capacity reports when they were in Pennsylvania.

    And I have a very bad memory.

    We don't even get many mindless shorts anymore. We do have a resident troll it seems now - gotta be a very shallow life to just onestar any comment or poster you don't agree with.

    But no real industry insiders, no parking lot reports, I'd say no employees seem to post.

    And as KLIC becomes less cyclical(profitable to trade) and the fact that I now have 3 businesses and still suffering effects from a car accident almost 5 years ago I post less and trade less.

    KLIC still has the best financials and best product lineup in over 15 years. The Bonder business (the industry demise has been professed as right around the corned since 1999) is still alive and relatively well, thank you very much. The Copper innovations likely helped that life cycle a lot.

    Gotta run...

  • Was flirting with 12, now under 11 (10.74 as I type).

  • Reply to

    In the day

    by lost_my_shorts Dec 10, 2015 2:52 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 10, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Much different company in almost every way.

    Which ironically makes the swings less and less profitable to cyclically trade unlike back then.

    Company improved greatly with products, financial conditions(converts long gone), changein Mgmt (Scott retired),
    moved closer to their customers(Not a wild positive for me), no bad acquisitions lately(wedge still questionable to me) and a fresh acquisition that I just don't know enough about. Last CEO seemed to do little to no harm, new CEO too soon to tell.

    Definately NOT the old days here with KLIC.

    And most quality posters are long gone too.

  • Reply to

    Here we go again!

    by crosscourtforehand Dec 2, 2015 1:41 PM
    davebugs davebugs Dec 7, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    today was a chance!

    Almost 3 times normal volume down .76 to 11.21(6.35%) after flirting with 12 for a few days.

  • davebugs davebugs Dec 7, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    I'll have to go looking for replay info. Not sure when I'll get to it. I'm swamped with business stuff until teh week of thanksgiving. Occasionally while on the phone I can look here for any useful info.

    What did you hear of significance?

    I'm doubting that anyone has a transcript of the call since AP is so small.

    Down a few percent on hardly any volume today - like 1/4 of normal.

  • Still on slide down from 24 over the past 2 years, was over 18 for the first few months of this year and now under 12, negative EPS, and announced a sizable acquisition of multiple plants.

    If we stay above 11 I'd consider that a win!

    Perhaps this long sleeping stock is coming to life. What that new future holds for us shareholders may be interesting.

    A side note. the market cap may get above some levels where it may be included in more baskets (like ETF's) and have higher visibility that other firms may be able to make an investment without being concerned about running the price (up or down) when getting in or out. I consider this a microcap myself.

    Before this acquisition there was still over 8.00 in cash per share.

    The past 5 years haven't been kind to AP or X. But AP has half the loss of X (35% vs 70% in round numbers). And there is always a good chance that AP could be sold, not X.

    I'd love to see a transcript of the call, but this little stock likely doesn't have one - atleast not yet.

    Wondering if dividend was discussed at all too.

NXTM
18.00-1.16(-6.05%)Feb 5 4:00 PMEST