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Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

davebugs 70 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 9:28 AM Member since: Feb 17, 2000
  • davebugs davebugs Jan 30, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Actually I forget. But must be one of the handful of folks that have earned the rare ignore from me.

    But it looks like they love you too!

    It is kinda childish. Infact perhaps they only show up after school hours?

    Zacks has come late to two of my small stocks that had great earnings this week.

    In past cycles when the fundamental investors and the press has started to like KLIC it was time to lighten up.

    As I've stated though KLIC is a different and better company in product and finances and as such have likely removed part of their cyclicality(that I have traded and done well for many years).

    So "this time may be different". I still expect cyclicality just perhaps not as wide(and profitable) swings as in the past.

    A friday with futures way down after a couple of outstanding days may be interesting.

  • If history is any indicator.

    Other than the one who gives every one of my posts a thumbs down...

  • April 16's today 500, 114 had been open
    July 17's 625 today, 20 had been open

  • Look at all those Mar 17.50 calls that are open - MAXPAIN I'd think.

  • I see HOD 16.04 but now down to 15.80.

    They had stopped it at 15.99 yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Sold a little

    by storagelh Jan 26, 2015 3:20 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 28, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Just got home.

    Sold just a little at 15.61 that I just received at last options OE at 14.00 strike.

    If we hold well about 15 - excellent! I have lots of common left.

    If not I'll buy these back.

    Doing well in a bad market.

  • Reply to

    So Christmas came late...

    by davebugs Jan 27, 2015 11:25 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 28, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Day after Cmas looking pretty good too!

    Over 17.20 for 52 week high.

    Up .75 to 16.86 and 4.66% as I type.

    And if you eve rthought Zacks had any value, well, if they had valuie they woul dhave changed IIVI's rating BEFORE the ER.

    But the bump is nice in a bad market.

    Good luck folks!

  • Heck of a move up in a down market to close at 16.11 up 2.15 or 15.40% on 4.5 times normal volume.

    I'm still underwater on the shares that I still hold (luckily I sold most some time ago much higher).

    It's very good to see, but I'd be booking some profits if I had any! Not necessarily all profits, but I'd have taken some of the table today.

  • Reply to

    Sold a little

    by storagelh Jan 26, 2015 3:20 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 26, 2015 11:34 PM Flag

    Can't go wrong booking some profit.

    I've booked a lot of profits with KLIC again this cycle.

    I thought about writing some calls against 1/4 of remaining position but have so far decided not to.

    I believe I'll likely stay positioned exactly as I am thru the ER.

    That 15 has been the barrier for a while, and I've usually taken some off the table when it gets close or just over 15. So far that has worked very well. But i"ll be even happier when it breaks thru 15 and stays above it!

  • Reply to

    What will ER bring - looking good today so far.

    by davebugs Jan 26, 2015 2:56 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 26, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    To the naked eye MAXPAIN next expiry looks liek 18, and a few have traded today.

    Look at the simply finviz chart and see how many times KLIC HASN'T been able to really break 15.

    Again I am not a chart guy, but I think this means if we finally get decisively above it that theoretically 15 will be support.

  • Unsure if I"ll make a specific/timely ER play.

    I'm so busy and distracted that I remembered after OE that I forgot to sell my calls and had a margin call in the making in a retirement account last tuesday that I got sorted out in time(Monday was a holiday).

    This snow is Beautiful. About to hit NYC and I've been there when they get storms - it isn't pretty!

    I'm off to watch level 2 and options to observe when I get a few minutes.

  • davebugs davebugs Jan 22, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    One of the RARE useful tools here at Yahoo is the IGNORE feature.

    Most other "enhancements" really leave a lot to be desired.

    But the IGNORE feature works very well, and makes some MB's much easier to read.. I suggest you try it.

  • Reply to

    somebody thinks or knows a beat is coming

    by usa_republic52 Jan 20, 2015 2:48 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 20, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    They usually REALLY tip their hand with options when someone knows something - even better returns with calls.

    I haven't looked yet - but today's volume (and close in dates) would be interesting!

  • Reply to


    by rossanthony48236 Jan 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 17, 2015 1:06 AM Flag

    Post too long, and it's late and I'm tired.

    But we each make our own decisions.

    I'm very happy overall with my decisions trading KLIC for over 15 years. I wish I had near those returns on any other holding. But I still refuse to let KLIC become too large in my portfolio even though it's been all the houses money every cycle since 2000.


  • Reply to


    by rossanthony48236 Jan 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 17, 2015 1:02 AM Flag

    I've done very well over many cycles.

    When I was buying under 2 I had no idea of how long it would take to hit 14 - if it ever was even going to get there.

    That cycle I started buying under 8 the whole way down to 1.25 on 11/26/08.

    KLIC has historically been very cyclical. As I stated above it may be less cyclical(and more quality) going forward.

    To me KLIC isn't purely a buy and hold stock like my remaining BRKB, AWK, DVA, etc.

    So I have scaled in and out, written covered calls, and used calls to replace stock.

    True at this point looking back I would have done better holding all that common. But it could have almost as easily gone to zero.

    So I've booked profits all along the way.

    I'm very happy with my returns on KLIC this cycle and every cycle since the late 90's. I've always been afraid to bet really big on KLIC. From time to time it has gotten to over 25% of my portfolio before I paired it back.

    I'd have to look but basically I believe I've atleast doubled my money(often tripled or more) every cycle (thats roughly every 3-4 years) since the late 90's. Had I held KLIC for over 15 years without trading those results wouldn't have been nearly as good.

    I've never claimed to be able to pick the top or bottom of any stock including KLIC.

    So I wasn't smart enough to buy under 2 a few years ago and hold it all until it went over 14.

    Overall for many years I've done very well - thank you!

    We aren't back to the highs of 95 to 2002 if you look at the chart. Infact the high was almost 40 in early 2000 - and yes I missed like the last 10 points of that move because I had totally sold out.

    We all have different styles. And I have different styles for different kinds of companies. KLIC has always been a cyclical trading stock for me. Part of that cyclicality may be less going forward. But to me I doubt it will ever be simply a buy and hold stock.

    Congratulations on your timing and buying and holding it all f

    I'm simply not that smart(or lucky) so

  • Reply to


    by rossanthony48236 Jan 16, 2015 10:51 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 16, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    I assume you're talking to me.

    I have never been big on KLIC being bought out. Infact I'm not in favor of it.

    I've made WAY more money cyclically trading KLIC than I'd get from a one time buyout.

    They have shed bad decisions(flip, Gold wire, test) since then (I still reserve judgement on wedge) improved the financials drastically(ALL the converts are gone), Scott retired, they actually have cash, and Bruno has been slow to buy anything (a good thing), didn't institute a dividend(a good thing).

    Their product line is better than it's ever been too.

    In short they are much higher quality company than when I started trading them in the late 90's. This may remove some of the returns from cyclically trading them every few years and thus less profitable to trade. But I still prefer to have the ability to trade KLIC than just get a one time premium on a buyout.

    Now I'm talking my book for sure. But I prefer KLIC stay independent because I'll likely make way better returns over many years than cashing in on a one time premium from a buyout.

    I do like this company. My opinion(and positions) are that it's about fairly valued here. I have sold near 15 a few times, some then I bought calls with the profits.

    I have never bought/held KLIC looking for a buyout with the exception of when Scott announced his retirement I held onto more shares at the top of that cycle than normal(I didn't get totally out that cycle). To me at that time the financials had been dramatically cleaned up and they had taken the beating on their bad attempts at diversification. And they had moved the headquarters by then also I believe.

    Bruno came in at an excellent time. And we'll see about this aquisition but he's been slow to put his stamp on this company a nd I see that as a very good thing.

    So - I don't want or expect a buyout. But I believe still plenty of money to be made here.

    I still have less than 10% of the shares that I held when we were under 2.00 share a few years back

  • Reply to

    OT - Fly

    by davebugs Jan 2, 2015 10:04 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 16, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    Currency and Minerals are beyond my expertise - glad you are doing well but it's looking like the major part of this drop should be over soon.

    Closest I come to minerals was owning a Gold and Silver producer in the past and looking at the GLD seemingly a year or two at when Gold was 1,200 and Greece, the EU, the US, etc were having a race to devalue the most. I didn't buy then but watch it and we're basically back to 1,200 now. So I watch but no investment yet.

    I have had little time last night and today but wondering how INTC may effect everything chip related today.

    If KLIC falls below 14 it's still too soon for me to nibble (due to cost basis of what I already own) but I may speculate with buying a few calls.

  • Reply to

    OT - Fly

    by davebugs Jan 2, 2015 10:04 AM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 14, 2015 10:50 PM Flag

    I may sell of my JCP purchased on 12/26/14 for 6.4299 never got a chance for a further dip to add more.

    Today it closed at 8.14 up 26.6% in lets call it almost 3 weeks?

    Had I not had issues with Yahoo it is what I would have entered in the contest(seriousely) as it is fitting with the "spirit" of the contest. A #$%$ stock, and what I mention every year about tax loss selling candidates that often then have the "January effect". The January effect is usually small caps though and they are my favorite by far and JCP isn't a small cap.

    But JCP was my only buy since 12/18 in my main trading account (on 12/17 I replaced some AP stock with a buy at 17.08).

    JCP was a new buy for me - never owned it before and don' t plan to own it long...

    Strickly a tax loss selling play and January effect play.

    I expect to sell atleast half, but likely all within the next 7 days.

    I am watching the contest as usual with interest(if not the time to follow closely) and appreciate DCX sponsoring this annual event.

  • Since Flip Chip, Testing, and Gold wire all cost KLIC and shareholders plenty in the past.

    Bruno appeared to be taking his time. So I have my fingers crossed that this won't be ugly...

  • Reply to

    Cree at Home Depot

    by inthegameformoney Dec 17, 2014 2:50 PM
    davebugs davebugs Jan 2, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    I share your thoughts on mgmt.

    But they know they are incompetent and have spent much time and effort on entrenching themselves.

    I would expect them to make an aquisition to spend the cash if someone got serious about buying CREE so they can continue to bleed the shareholders.

    The cash is a main reason someone would buy them. Becasue competent mgmt could have this company be even better postioned and wildly profitable compared to what these folks can accomplish.

    Discolsure: I still have some shares long - but they are long ago with the houses money. I haven't added to common or written calls in a while.

17.89-0.58(-3.14%)Jan 30 4:00 PMEST

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