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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

davegras 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 30, 2014 9:49 AM Member since: May 22, 2003
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  • Reply to

    OT: new article

    by jaretwilson Aug 26, 2014 6:04 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 30, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    JW, just read your TSEM report. Great article. Even if investors won't eventually value the company on the EV/EBITDA mertric, and I'm not saying they won't, it still looks cheap based on p/e. Reading some of the comments on SA it seems management is akin to MU's in that it has a history of mediocrity with potential for great success due to one or two recent smart moves. It's also similar to IMOS in that more casual investors may overlook the company while nuts and bolts types like you have identified significant value. I think this one will be a winner (even more so). I'd like to buy it below $10 because I'm a thief and that means I'll probably miss out. Regardless, it's a nice find on your part. Good luck.

  • davegras by davegras Aug 19, 2014 12:30 AM Flag

    I bought SAN last year around $7 and sold at $10 a few months ago. I like this bank. Good management and fundamentals. Nice dividend. I'm thinking about getting back in but my sole concern is valuation. If SAN is projected to earn $0.80/share in 2016, that's a 12 p/e. Doesn't seem cheap to me compared to other banks' p/e multiples. Not expensive, just not that cheap for earnings that far out. Plus, banks have always sold at a meaningful discount to the market. Because the share dilution is making it harder to increase EPS, I wonder how much investors are willing to pay for SAN a year from now. I'd like to hear any counter-arguments regarding the valuation.

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    davegras davegras Aug 16, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Joe, I don't on this board! If I can come to the next get-together, I'm going to try and sponge a steak dinner off the regulars. Including you. :-D

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    davegras davegras Aug 16, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Joe, I believe that 20% is the marginal rate for the highest tax bracket (39.6%). The typical shareholder is not in that bracket.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    davegras davegras Aug 16, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Joe, no one knows yet the cash component but if the plan is for 25% of IMOS we are talking about $200mm assuming a 15% premium. Still a chunk of change, I admit, and you make a good point about taxes although that 23% as an effective tax rate seems a little high to me for the average long-term shareholder. Although unlikely to occur I'd like them to revist the idea of a dutch auction. They should be able to generate a lot of interest in the $25-$30 range and those investors who don't want to sell can keep their shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One way to close the gap

    by jamcracker25 Aug 14, 2014 10:07 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 15, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Roy, so you're saying "Chippy" is in the public domain? Ok, fair enough!

    Caff, thanks for the clarification. Kind of what I thought....

    I have IMOS at parity in the $24.50-$24.75 range...came close today. 8150 will rebound. Low volume is due in part to summer holidays. According to Reuters there are now six analysts in Taiwan covering IMOS; Chipbond has around 15 or so.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DLS Capital's exit

    by merryhottday Aug 15, 2014 3:10 AM
    davegras davegras Aug 15, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Caff, I'm not quite sure what you mean when you say 8150 price is not meaningful. It is meaningful in terms of price action, for example. If 8150 rises, IMOS will follow suit though not in lockstep. Also, SK said market conditions are part of the equation. As for the deal, do you mean the conversion proposal is 4-5 months away? If so, what do you base that on?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPIL Repurchase

    by davegras Aug 14, 2014 6:31 AM
    davegras davegras Aug 15, 2014 2:19 AM Flag

    Jay, I think the pecking order has been 8150, Imos, Spil, and then Thailin, so I agree with your sentiment. I feel a better price could've been obtained through the secondary last year and we should've been buying back stock all along. Plus, IMOS owns 8% less of 8150 than I expected, a portion not satisfactorily offset by cash. Given this history I got a little concerned and a few months ago had a cc with SK who assured me we wouldn't get short-changed by the imminent proposal. I believe him. Still, I do believe the company has been too conservative or methodical when taking steps to return shareholder value. I'm just glad we're in the 8th inning of this process and for all intents and purposes our fate is tied to the performance of 8150.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • davegras davegras Aug 14, 2014 10:57 PM Flag

    jmzab....Caff showed up on Seeking Alpha today where another positive article came out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One way to close the gap

    by jamcracker25 Aug 14, 2014 10:07 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 14, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    jam...we know that but we're not supposed to talk about it. j/k. Don't know why 8150 is going down again today...and before options expiration here...grrrr...but we've seen it before. By the way, I noticed you often use the term of endearment, Chippy. I'll have you know I was the first on this board to use that so you owe me royalties.

    John/Sean...I knew DLS had a large client in IMOS but I didn't think it constituted almost all their position. Wonder why they didn't put more clients in the stock.

    Roy...agree 100%.

    Bob...you make a good point and may be right. My thinking was a proposal is just that, a proposal, and the SPIL repurchase is a small adjustment. Also I had received indications that by the end of August or by the end of September but as they said on the cc the situation is fluid.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • davegras by davegras Aug 14, 2014 6:31 AM Flag

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipmos-enters-share-purchase-agreement-100000733.html

    A 7 % discount like we got from Thailin. If, for example, the arithmetic mean is $23.82 (today's closing price) over the stipulated period, the price paid will be $22.15. Sean, Jay, et al...ya happy?

    I also don't see why we still can't be on track for a second half of September conversion proposal (time will tell).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150/IMOS arbitrage review

    by hat_trick Aug 12, 2014 6:22 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 13, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    jay...we got a good deal from Thailin ($16.75/share last fall...7% discount). And SPIL and Thailin sold shares cheaply two years ago ($10.10) so I expect a below market price. What puzzles me is why SPIL needs to sell a million shares now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150/IMOS arbitrage review

    by hat_trick Aug 12, 2014 6:22 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 13, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    buy...just speculation on my part but maybe the conservative guidance caused a knee-jerk reaction. I expect analysts to reiterate their buy recs and this will be short-term I believe.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150/IMOS arbitrage review

    by hat_trick Aug 12, 2014 6:22 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 13, 2014 4:55 AM Flag

    JW, I agree. I just listened to the cc and when they weren't explicit, I think they clearly telegraphed that business is rock solid for the remainder of the year. IMOS will probably be down today due to 8150 and because the uncertainty of the timing of the conversion remains an overhang. Short-term trading. IMOS worth ~$25 now but expected to increase due to business conditions. Plus, any cash-for-stock premium still not baked into the price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OT: GILD

    by hat_trick Aug 2, 2014 9:22 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 3, 2014 7:00 AM Flag

    GILD has tripled the past two years. Still looks reasonable but no longer a home run, I think. As such I've been thinking about doing a Jan 16 strangle. For example, sell a $90 put and buy a $92.5 call for $15.5 each. The proceeds (before commissions) from the put pays for the call. For each contract (100 shares), you make a profit anything above $92.5. If the stock closes at $100 in 18 months and you own 10 contracts, your profit is $7,500. I would not do this with the large majority of stocks because the downside is large if the stock craters but GILD is selling at under 10x forward earnings and no one disputes the fact Sovaldi will bring in billions. For protection you could have a mental stop if the stock gets to $80 (depending on how much time value is left the loss may not be so bad) or buy a protective put. If you do the latter (e.g. $80 strike for $9), your downside is limited to $19,000 if the stock declines past $71. The above example is if you acted on Friday and I don't plan to act anytime soon. But I think the stock can eventually get to $110-$120 in 18 months.

  • Reply to

    If you guys were wondering....

    by foggyswamp Jul 25, 2014 4:07 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 26, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Turt, I think the best we'll get is some idea when the conversion proposal may be introduced (e.g. "In 1 or 2 months"). Beyond that, I expect they'll say legal is advising them not to talk about it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If you guys were wondering....

    by foggyswamp Jul 25, 2014 4:07 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 25, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    Since we're all sharing....Marnis, Turt...chances of them announcing a conversion formula at the cc...1%, in my opinion. Caff said earlier that mid-September is likely. I would take that to heart.

    SPIL, AMKR, etc. all down today. For those who do options, you could've sold the August 25 calls and 22.5 puts and received a dollar. With only three weeks left to expiry anything between ~21.5 to ~26.0 would be profitable. The time premium is still fairly high.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 18, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    buy...I sold mostly September but some August.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sandisk? Really?

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2014 4:12 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 18, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    turt, bob...I didn't exactly buy yesterday but I sold more puts when it got to around $23.80. I'm near certain that IMOS will be offered $25-$30 per share if cash becomes a component. So why not sell the $25 puts? No guarantees of course but if biz is buzzing I think buying the stock or selling puts at this level is a good bet. JMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ChipMOS Earnings Release 8/12 PM

    by buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 18, 2014 7:55 AM
    davegras davegras Jul 18, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    buy....it's always been the same time (in Taiwan) as far as I can remember. Maybe they're switching now for the Taiwanese investors and analysts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

IMOS
22.69-0.73(-3.12%)Sep 15 4:00 PMEDT

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