The states don't care about the environment, and they would love to see that money go to themselves instead of to mechanics. The states also don't want to put VW out of business because that will mean lost job, and thus lost money for themselves. All GTIs will be granted permanent waivers once the politicians have fed at the VW trough.
Here in MD if you spend $450 in an attempt to repair your vehicle's emissions you are granted and emissions waiver for two years.
Now let's assume the average life of a vehicle is 10 years, or five tests, or a total of $2,250 in waivers. I predict that the states will band together to form one multi-state lawsuit and that the states will each receive $3,000 for each vehicle registered in their state. With only 500,000 of these cars on the road at $3k each that would put the US damages at $1.5b. I believe a judge would find this reasonable. Even if you doubled the fine you are still only looking at $3b here in the states.