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Atlas Energy Group, LLC Message Board

davidbdc2001 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 16, 2015 2:05 PM Member since: Nov 12, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Weakness

    by jbcguy Mar 16, 2015 10:04 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Mar 16, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Well, I'm sure you are partially correct.

    But for those that have been investors in various Atlas entities for a while - we've seen this play before. This has the look and feel of 2008 all over again. Just keep in mind that in 2008 we lucked out with our Marcellus holdings. I don't see another pot of gold at the end of this rainbow.

    In 2008 it was screwing up the hedges twice - the second move from a panic at the worst possible time. That cost us two operating systems sold for about 400 million in 2009 - today those would be worth more than double (not to mention the cash flow).

    Sort of similar today - buying two oil acquisitions at the top - not properly hedging that production (claiming we were being "counter cyclical" or something to that effect). Now borrowing from a BCD to stay afloat. And basically praying that energy prices rebound. It certainly appears every producer is playing the same game - drill only your best - production still increases - and everyone is at the ready to boost it even more when the expected rebound happens..... which just ensures there won't be a rebound.

    Who knows, maybe some of our land will turn out to hold gold!!! And we'll become gold miners. But short of that type of luck, this may be just the early part of the decline. I hope otherwise, but all new holders should educate themselves to what has happened here previously.

  • Reply to

    Anyone get their ARP K1?

    by stockboardloser Mar 16, 2015 10:53 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Mar 16, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Yes I've received mine. If your having problems with the website might be worth a call. It should be available to you - and if you ever lost the hard copy or wanted to reference it while away from home its convenient to be able to pull up.

  • Reply to

    Series A Preferred

    by bosox_pats Mar 4, 2015 5:03 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Mar 4, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Hi Bosox,

    This is similar to an convertible they issued in 2009 for APL and was mysteriously bought by an unknown equity fund. Owners were not offered the ability to participate (I called and asked to). It was an outright give away and I'm sure Cohen or his family benefited greatly. If I recall correctly the conversion price was something like 6.50 and when issued the units were trading at $8.50!!!

    Its just more of the same and the longer your an owner the more you'll shake your head.

    Personally, if oil/NG remain depressed I think we could see this new Atlas get down to the $2-$3 range. There is little reason to believe that operations will improve to the point that the IDR's hold great value. Given the recent performance and sale of APL, I would expect this should yield over 10% in exchange for the executive office risk.

  • davidbdc2001 by davidbdc2001 Feb 26, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    But, they expect MORE production next year from those 7 rigs!

    For those that bet on SD I'd say you have to feel good about their ability to lower costs and increase efficiency.

    Good news for ARP that we got the covenants changed, though basically lost our liquidity along with it. Not a huge fan of borrowing from a BCD but I guess that was all that is left. Kind of concerning to hear that we borrow 250 MM and then have liquidity of 225MM - means we were in dire straits.

    Best news I've heard lately though is that Nigeria is agitating for an earlier OPEC meeting. Means that they are really feeling the pain of lower prices. Though I don't expect an early meeting, there is a possibility that perhaps in June OPEC announces small cuts or perhaps commits to a freeze of current production for next year.

  • davidbdc2001 by davidbdc2001 Feb 13, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    I was hoping we'd get two cents but we get - I'll take it.

  • They did similar to SD and went from something like 91 to 27 (I read the report last night so my memory is foggy). They are the second E&P to severely cut back and have to believe others will follow. In a way its good as the sooner there is a perceived tightening in the market the sooner prices recover.

  • Reply to

    drop this morning~~

    by jamollamaman Feb 10, 2015 10:12 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 11, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    No its not. Its a reverse split to meet NYSE listing standards. Since the remaining piece of ATLS is currently being valued under $5 they are going to issue new units on a 1 for 2 basis. Commonly referred to a reverse split.

  • Reply to

    covenant comments

    by cash.flowguy Feb 5, 2015 12:40 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 10, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Mark,
    Do you believe it? Did you see any announcement saying that Atlas was exploring their options? That they are taking bids?

    If your going to sell, you generally announce your going to look how best to maximize shareholder value going forward and hire a firm to assist you. Unless I missed that announcement, I take all that as after the fact window dressing.

    Unfortunately, Cohen has made his own bed. For long time holders we have been through so many different screw-ups that its tough to remember them all. And most of them result from Cohen believing he's the smartest guy in the room. So it wouldn't surprise me at all that instead of trying to get the best price using the normal route - that he'd go around and ask some folks what they might pay for APL and then - after its done and he's been fleeced - put together some information and say "Hey I got the best deal possible".

    At this point - its moot. ATLS holders will soon be receiving much lower distributions. ARP holders are basically screwed (courtesy of his "counter cyclical" approach - which means buying oil property at the top and not hedging it I guess!) . And APL was sold for peanuts. Just another typical Cohen situation.

    We got VERY LUCKY with our Marcellus holdings and the advent of horizontal fracking. It could have made APL/ATLS a powerhouse HAD WE NOT HAD TO SELL OUR BEST TWO OPERATING SYSTEMS in 2009 as a result of atrocious hedging - a hedging approach TAKEN BY NO OTHER FIRM.

    If only I had invested in MWE years and years ago instead (I almost did). Dumbest move I ever made.

  • davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 10, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    This is total BS. Doing a reverse split simply means they KNOW the ARP distributions are going to be cut and as a result ATLS distributions will not be anything close to $1.10 (which was already down from 1.25).

    Cohen's act is beyond tiresome. For someone that knows how to raise money as well as he does, he has never learned that keeping information from the market punishes unit holders.

    They should simply announced the ARP cut and announce the ATLS cut. Then the new entity might actually be valued on the basis of whatever yield exists. Instead, he plays games and the market will assume the worst.

    Its laughable how just a couple of years ago ATLS holders were being told that $4 or $5 distributions were likely by now.

  • davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 10, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    You will have 1000 units.

  • Reply to

    drop this morning~~

    by jamollamaman Feb 10, 2015 10:12 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 10, 2015 10:43 AM Flag

    You don't see any news?

    Do you look at the SEC filings of ARP and ATLS?

    ATLS basically announced a reverse split this morning. AND they don't mention the distribution at all - which means its going lower. So that means ARP distribution is going to be cut - which everyone basically already knew. BUT as usual, THEY DON'T provide us with information.

    So given the lack of information, selling ensues. Its just more self-inflicted damage. And its the status quo for Cohen. Expecting that the rest of the world will know that he has a plan and everything will be ok and on and on and on. 2009 all over again.

  • Reply to

    covenant comments

    by cash.flowguy Feb 5, 2015 12:40 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 7, 2015 1:42 PM Flag

    Of course the banks will be flexible. On their terms.

    No different than in 2008/09. They forced the sale of two Atlas operating systems and the suspension of the distribution and a change in leadership.

    The banks are going to act in their best interest. They don't care one bit about unit holders. As long as ARP can pay the interest, they will amend the covenants FOR A PRICE. Whether that price is as severe as it was in 2009 remains to be seen.

    It is not a good sign that Cohen was not able to get 150MM loan for the new entity. That should tell you how banks are viewing the situation at ARP.

    For those not around back then, the two operating systems were sold at the depth of the crisis (I think in April/May 2009) for about 500 million dollars - which should give you an idea of just how good those systems were. The banks shed no tears for unit holders - they just wanted their money!

  • Reply to

    covenant comments

    by cash.flowguy Feb 5, 2015 12:40 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Feb 7, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    You realize your showing the same DCF for both price levels? That is mathematically impossible.

  • Reply to

    Another tip

    by jbcguy Jan 30, 2015 2:30 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 30, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    ISIS is on the outskirt of Kirkut - I think that's why oil has risen.

    It reminds people that it only takes one geopolitical event to suddenly put the supply/demand balance right back to even.

    If Kirkut fell that has the potential of halving Iraq oil production. I don't believe it will, but then again yesterday no one thought ISIS would launch a new offensive.

    Throw on some Russian Nuclear capable planes entering GB airspace, likely full drawn out civil war in Yemen, Oil Rebels making demands in Nigeria, Libya in total collapse, Venezuela near total economic collapse and it all makes your head hurt.

    But changes in SA may be the biggest potential for better oil pricing. I think they are now seeing if they can talk the market into creating a floor - should it not happen then I fully expect the conversations are already started within OPEC on how to get concessions from non-OPEC producers in June to enact a production cut. For all their bravado - Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc - all have tons of unemployed youths that they don't want on the street protesting. The drop in oil is hurting these countries today - SA and some of the other Arab producers see it will hurt them tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Merger Question

    by oilngas124 Jan 29, 2015 11:28 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 30, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    If you are comfortable holding TRGP then it will probably work out well.

    Just keep in mind that your using 125K to end up with 4423 units of a GP that owns basically an MLP that is currently "yielding" 20+%. If TRGP goes down 10% your suddenly not paying $3 for that stub anymore.

    Personally, I avoid arbitrage situations. I've lost due to transactions going bad, unknown tax consequences, etc. If the stub trades at $2.50 post transaction then I'll think about picking some up. Keep in mind that ARP is going to either have to get their debt covenants revised (which usually doesn't come for free) or severely reduce the distribution - or BOTH! When that happens that's when the stub will take a hit and the time for buying will be right.

  • davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 15, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Dino,
    The best advice you can receive if you haven't previously invested in oil and gas companies is to simply wait.

    There are no "no brainers". There is no known bottom in regards to the price of any commodity. One of the most experienced and knowledgeable oilmen of our generation - Hamm - sold his companies hedges expecting $60 would be the floor and that was obviously not correct (I bought more ARP at $13.50 thinking something similar).

    The idea that anyone knows what the price will be in 12 months is a fallacy. No one knows.

    Wait until the price of oil stabilizes for several months. Short of a major geo-political event its not going back to $90 tomorrow. Better to invest when oil has spent several months back at $50-$60 and it is clear that the demand/supply balance is more in line. Buying prior to that is a bet - if you have money you can afford to lose ok. But realize that's what it is. So if you want to bet - then buy the most beaten down names - and buy calls as far out in the future you can.

  • Reply to

    Today 3:pm Jan 14 , Nat Gas up 10%, Gas up 5%

    by banach64 Jan 14, 2015 3:07 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 14, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    With the unexpected inventory buildup a lot of traders decided it might be time to take some of their profits on the short side - it was several times larger than predicted - along with bad retail numbers - so some folks think this could be the kind of "terrible news" that would mean there just isn't too much more "bad news" that could keep sending it down.

    Not a popular thing to say - but we need some type of geopolitical event to move the price upwards a lot.

  • Reply to

    Would like see

    by jbcguy Jan 14, 2015 1:28 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 14, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    JBC - Ok, so what do you project as our leverage with $50 Oil and $3 NG? I don't disagree that some drilling and operating costs will be reduced due to less demand, but I'd guess 10-15% in the short term. Even with those savings, we'll still be in violation of the debt covenants in late 2015 if pricing continues to fall.

    Short of another artic blast coming it appears $3 NG may be coming and stick around for a while.

    The issue we'll face in the drilling program is that the collapse of oil pricing has been all over the news for more than a month - the primary folks that put up money are small business owners, lawyers, doctors, etc - Yes, the tax write-off is nice but its going to be a much tougher sell this year. I'll bet a large chocolate milkshake that we don't hit 275 MM.

    As soon as its obvious that those debt covenants kick in, there have to be modifications and that will mean further restrictions on the business. I don't expect that there will be any purchasing of units by ARP.

    The earlier it gets addressed the better. We don't need a repeat of the 2008 conference call meltdown where Cohen blamed the whole world for the unit price decline..... when the whole world knew they had totally botched the hedges - twice. A quicker addressing of that issue might have meant we only had to sell one operating system instead of two!

    Rather see the distribution get drastically reduced for the next year and pay down debt and be in good position for a price rebound in NG and Oil, than to continue to send cash out and find ourselves between a rock and a hard place late in the year.

  • Reply to

    Land and Building take

    by andrew_wert Jan 9, 2015 3:29 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 14, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Yeah, Management should tell the clown to pound sand.

    I'm very disappointed to read the release that we are selling 5 more malls. You can't cut your way to growth and frankly, some of these malls have helped to build the company and are still generating positive returns for PREIT. The idea that hypothetically we can invest the money elsewhere and earn more money is just hedge fund BS. The guy only cares about boosting the share price THIS YEAR - he will sell and he couldn't care less about the company in 4 or 5 years.

    That's my comment.

  • Reply to

    Mis Information & Exposure

    by breakem1 Jan 14, 2015 7:11 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jan 14, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    Hate to break it to you but what posted is just incorrect. I summarized the last management projections for 2015 in another post - if you choose to not believe it that's certainly your right. Good Luck.

ATLS
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