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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

davidbdc2001 3762 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2014 2:12 AM Member since: Nov 12, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Current stock price

    by lamboman_48 Apr 28, 2014 10:12 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jul 15, 2014 2:12 AM Flag

    Well I have a mixed opinion. I was happy we can finally fully develop the gallery and surrounding area and was hoping we'd swing for the fences. Instead they have indicated that we'll look for a partner.

    Then we bought that mall in Northern Virginia - an area we don't really have a presence - and we gave away 1/2 of the gains through 2017 (that's off the top of my head). I really don't understand that - we paid a strong cap rate and then further agree to split any of the near term gains. That doesn't make sense to me. I really felt we overpaid for that property. The selling firm has publicly stated they wanted to move properties - given that I would have liked to see a better cap rate and no way sharing of the gains.

    Outside of that I think we are pretty much fully valued. Not expecting a lot to change going forward and the dividend seems fairly secure at this level. Would have much rather spent some of the No. Virginia money on the Gallery and own that outright. But that's just my opinion of course.

  • Just released Q2 earnings and it was strong. Slightly higher production. Will be interesting to see what dividend is paid out. Also refinanced bank line at lower rates. So should be further strong cash flow as we move forward - looking forward to hearing what they have to say.

  • davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Jun 26, 2014 1:45 AM Flag

    Its too soon to know. But it is a little worrying. If larger firms like Pioneer are allowed to export more than just condensate it might move them to bypass firms like APL and just build their own distillation processing facilities. Currently there is little incentive for them to do this and in their interest to allow other firms to process and transport. That equation could change.

    In the short term probably doesn't mean much - and if larger changes are in store the possibility of acquisition would also be in play. APL/ATLS is small potatoes for some of the larger companies.

  • Reply to

    NAPTP MLP conference

    by bosox_pats May 21, 2014 6:32 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 May 22, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    Is that 8 cents per quarter or annual?

  • Reply to

    NAPTP MLP conference

    by bosox_pats May 21, 2014 6:32 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 May 22, 2014 4:48 AM Flag

    Most Bullish presentation????

    Come on - when have we had one that wasn't bullish???

    So accretive means.... not really accretive after all. I mean we've been promised 1.1 coverage since inception.

    Seeing is believing. This time last year we were being promised $2.80 this year. I'll be happy with any increase later this year in the distribution.

  • Reply to

    ATLS Conference Call

    by bosox_pats May 9, 2014 7:02 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 May 9, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    The last thing we need is more financial engineering.

    We need to integrate all the pieces from all these acquisitions - improve efficiency - and do our best to grow organically. These calls are tiring - its a different story - with different emphasis every call or two.

    Growing DCF will grow the unit price. The reason our unit price is down is that no one can figure out what the heck is going on. There is no consistency to the approach - and while you want management to be able/willing to change when needed - its like its a disease.

    I couldn't believe the call yesterday and its past time for Cohen to remove himself as CEO and just hold a place on the board. And his son needs to be sent packing.

  • davidbdc2001 by davidbdc2001 May 8, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    Not good at all. Period. I don't care that winter came. It came last year and the year before and year before that and will be here next year - surprise surprise.

    Even if you "exclude winter", we would have only had a coverage of 1.0.

    In case anyone forgot - it was just a year ago.... blah blah blah - we'll have solid coverage of at least 1.1 - 1.15.

    Its tiring.

  • Reply to

    Last 3Q's behind ATLS

    by bosox_pats May 3, 2014 3:11 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 May 7, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Well, as I said time will tell. But you should be aware of the history that exists here.

    You say that the expansions funded by the converts will increase DCF by 20% - well it better because the converts will increase units by 20% - not much room for error there.

    Cohen owns ATLS shares. And IMO he is too focused on getting to high splits and we have made some poor choices recently (I have no issue with the smaller ARP purchases). At a time where management said they had the "pick of the litter" in terms of buying assets larger companies were looking to divest - they sure made some interesting picks!!

    As an owner - I hope for the best - but I expect that the distributions we currently receive may be what we're going to be receiving. At one point in time some of the firms you mention were projecting $5 distributions for Atlas in 2015-16 timeframe. We are nowhere near that and I'm expecting sub $3 next year. Now that's not the end of the world but I would not be expecting units to be over $60 anytime soon. Just my two cents worth.

  • Reply to

    Last 3Q's behind ATLS

    by bosox_pats May 3, 2014 3:11 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 May 6, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Like the optimism but I hope you realize that its likely that "we have what we have". Keep in mind that to purchase TEAK we issued convertibles - that means that soon there will be another 16 million units? with a claim on DCF. That's about a 20% increase in units for APL. We've already written off $50 million - and I suspect there will be more to come. In essence, we have a situation where all our organic growth is being consumed by the acquisition. We will struggle to growth distributions on the APL side.

    ARP time will tell. Nothing more on those promised Marcellus wells. Didn't have a big raise in the partnership program. So I don't see huge growth.

    But time will tell. We may not see $3 distributions on ATLS. Obviously I hope we do.

  • Reply to

    Sale of pipeline

    by jberns2421 May 5, 2014 5:02 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 May 5, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    I don't know - if its just the pipeline then I think its a decent price and about as good as could be expected. Keep in mind that with CVX no longer involved there is more risk associated with ensuring volumes going forward.

    The announcement said a division - as long as its really just the pipeline then I'm ok with it.

  • Reply to

    Always love a liar - Hedgeye

    by arbtrdr Apr 26, 2014 1:22 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Apr 27, 2014 1:15 AM Flag

    Yeah I'm pretty much in agreement. I've got no issues with folks selling stocks short, nor with publishing negative reports on a company. But this reeks of short term manipulation.

    They did a report on LINE and basically challenged their accounting practices as it relates to expensing hedging costs. Fair enough. I guess they did some type of report on KMI - I'm not familiar with it.

    Now they seem to have looked for a smaller MLP that they determine negative news could have a short term impact on stock price. Now, I'm fine with them having negative opinions - but when you promise the negative news "in three days" - that already seems a bit shady..... then after those three days........ NOTHING????

    As a unit holder I'm not worried about the unit price over the short term - and actually not really worried over the long term (other than it would mean a growing distribution - which is what I care about). If APL and ARP execute then everything will take care of itself. But this type of activity is why retail investors are leery of the stock market. Its seems that those connected with money, power, and media are able to manipulate things so that they win - always.

    Take Ackmann's purchase of this latest company - a CEO of a large pharmaceutical company tells him they want to buy it and want him to go in with them - so he knows the acquisition price is going to be higher and he buys a billion of options and shares - and magically in a month or two has made a billion dollars??????? #$%$??????

    Its nonsense - I'd like to see the SEC actually investigate and PROSECUTE some of these clowns - might serve to scare a few people straight. Paying $20 million and neither confirm nor deny the charges that you cheated to make $200 million just doesn't have any type of value.

  • Reply to

    Hedgeye report

    by youcanpickum Apr 24, 2014 10:23 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Apr 24, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Is it posted somewhere on the internet? I'd like to read it. If that is the summation then this was a quick hit and run on a smaller company.

    I agree that distribution growth will be tempered in coming years - we made an acquisition at an inflated price and that is offsetting some of our organic growth.

    But that is a far far cry from claiming that capital raises are what is funding distributions. That claim would mean that there are accounting irregularities that overstate or our outright fraudulently stating cash flow in some way, shape or form.

    We expense our hedging costs (which was the big point of contention with LINE). We use a known accounting firm. As far as I'm aware we use accepted standards on reserves. While I've had issues with some of the companies decisions, there has never been a hint of improper dealings.

  • Reply to

    ATLS & ARP distributions

    by bosox_pats Apr 23, 2014 7:17 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Apr 24, 2014 12:48 AM Flag

    Yeah, I was shocked. Usually they wait until about 10PM the day they promise to report. Undoubtedly it is in response to the coming report and meant to sooth unit holders - which is a good thing.

    There is little doubt that the Cardinal acquisition isn't going as planned APL has had organic growth which should have upped the distribution by maybe 10 cents a unit and its simply covering up the dilution from buying Cardinal - hate to say that but I think that's the hard truth of the situation.

    I hope that the 1.09 coverage is ACTUAL coverage - not some - "if it weren't for xyz, we would have had 1.09".

  • Reply to

    Setting up for big 1Q at ATLS

    by bosox_pats Jan 31, 2014 7:33 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Apr 23, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Well, we got .46 and that's pretty much expected.

    APL isn't really going to increase distributions this year (yes I know they are basically promising a penny a quarter increase). ARP has potential for increases but we'll have to see how they have done operationally this quarter to get a feel for whether or not that will take place. I would expect that as they roll forwards with NG futures contracts we'll see some increase in DCF as stockpiles are about 50% of where they were a year ago.

    We really need some Ethane demand. I read that there is a new planned export facility being built but that won't come online until 2016 at the earliest - even then it would only absorb about 50% of the overproduction that exists today.

    We'll wait for the calls.

  • Reply to

    Well it will be interesting to read......

    by davidbdc2001 Apr 21, 2014 7:48 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Apr 22, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    Well APL announced .62 distribution - so same as last quarter - and they expect to get to .65 by the 4th quarter (their 4th quarter). So that is what they said last quarter.

    Pretty much shows that the expansions last year have generated strong cash flow but that is being offset by shortfalls from the Cardinal acquisition.

  • I have no issue with folks publishing whatever research they want on a publicly traded company - and their opinion of whether or not to buy the stock.

    I do have some issue with the ability of this firm to use their name to put out a small press release with no information other than they will release news in three days - that just seems like they use the press to ensure they can get short term gain from a short position.

    I suspect that the research will focus on recent acquisitions, resulting debt level, ethane, our contract risk, and the perpetual preferred that was recently issued.

    ONE THING that is totally different from LINE is that we expense our hedging costs, and our capital maintenance is in line with most peers. So unless they have something fraudulent this reeks of piling on by using the same template they used on LINE with a smaller company - knowing they can drive short term unit price using the "threat" of coming news.

    I'm not buying nor selling - ultimately the DCF growth or lack thereof will drive unit prices. And as I've stated previously the Cardinal acquisition was misplaced and we overpaid. However, that doesn't take away from the fact that we have some well positioned assets and future growth potential with PXD - along with risks due to our exposure to SD drilling decisions.

    Will be interesting to see what they actually publish. But this is one owner that will sleep ok this evening.

  • Reply to

    Deleveraging SHO Style

    by thunderingherdny Feb 21, 2014 3:27 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Apr 20, 2014 1:46 AM Flag

    Why would this surprise you? In 2009 they used about half the cash on the books to retire 4% notes.... when for the same amount of money they could have bought back more than half of outstanding shares.

    This group is an example of overpaid management and board looking out for each other while shareholders aren't even in the equation. If the law didn't require them to pay out a dividend they'd pay Zero - and have admitted as much!

  • Reply to

    APL looking to sell its JV interest in pipeline

    by bjfcpainc Mar 11, 2014 6:35 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Mar 14, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    Bosox - I'd just point out that unless the buyer can purchase 100% both pieces are worth less than the sum.

    No buyer is going to enter into a partnership like the current situation. CVX/APL transaction in Marcellus is how this all came about and its time for APL to move on. Lets hope we get at least the $85 million its on the books for. That's half a new plant.

  • Reply to

    2014 Guidance now 1.95 to 2.45 per unit

    by davidbdc2001 Feb 27, 2014 7:23 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Mar 14, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    Well I think we are selling the pipeline along with CVX - its a good thing IMO - I can't see how CVX could get top dollar without APL selling their share - not too many buyers want to end up with an asset that has joint decisions even though they supposedly own 80%. And with CVX exiting volumes would become more risky over time.

    I'll be thrilled if we saw $5 distributions by 2017. But I really don't see that type of growth. Keep in mind that a year ago projections were in the $4-$5 range for 2015-2016. The Cardinal assets might (hopefully not) end up being dilutive to unit holders. With $50 million already written off, we've got a lot of work to do.

    I expect $2-$3 in distributions over the next couple of years. APL has taken on a lot of organizational change - obviously there are some things not going as well as initially anticipated - that needs to get fixed and we could really use stronger NGL pricing - and obviously see some increased demand for ethane.

  • Reply to

    ATLS vs ARP

    by xocy713 Mar 4, 2014 12:27 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Mar 14, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Growth. If you believe that both ARP and APL will see above average Distribution growth then buy ATLS. If you don't foresee that happening then ARP is a better play (as you know that your getting 10% today with potential for future increased distributions (along with the risks associated with all E&P companies).

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