In regards to your parents just keep in mind that while ATLS has the higher upside (assuming all goes as planned), that it also has the possibility of not attaining that upside.
APL looks at least solid to continue the current payout level even if you look forward over the next 3-4 years and assume some negative developments. ATLS still needs a lot to happen to get to $3 a share - right now we're in the 1.25 range.
Obviously you know the personal situation best, but sometimes a bird in hand........
I'm hoping that with the investment grade rating they will be more likely to devote FFO increases to dividend increases in the coming years. We'll see.
Hard to believe this traded at sub $2 back in March 2009. I remember when they did the cash/stock dividend and I chose part cash/stock instead of all stock :)
This is good news, even if its a one-time event.
I'd really like to see us up our borrowings. We keep issuing stock at basically 12% cost and we are clearing 13-14% currently. Thats like being in the grocery store business. Borrowing at 5% and earning 13% is much better.
And if all they are doing is looking at potential future options in case tax law changes that is fine. BUT, We simply don't need to try to show that we are smarter than everyone else.
This firm (AHD/APL) was almost destroyed by that very type of thinking and absolutely pitiful execution of some very simple things.
We will do far better by slowly developing a larger organization that can properly execute. Thats the best way to "monetize" 17 years worth of assets - turn 17 into 11 over time.
I expect we'll see another acquisition before the summer is out. And hopefully that can be joined up with an expanded drilling investment program and continue to expand DCF for the next several years.
Mike, don't know if your still around/checking in, but after a long wait we have finally gotten back to $25. With low payout ratio, no reason we can't see dividends increased each year for the next several - and I could see CBL back into the $30's in a couple of years.
CAPEX was ridiculous. Throw on top of that the potential for an increased tax bill down the line and this was not a positive report.
I'd also add that we are not seeing the revenue increases that they believed we'd see from all the investments made. Its not a total failure but seems we've spent to maintain rather than to grow.
Bottom line. If we don't see overall revenue growth in the next couple of quarters then mathematics will start to loom large.
Someone should get fired over the CAPEX number.
Well, the call sounded good. And from their comments another acquisition is definitely in the works for ARP. Sounds like we could see a big jump in the distribution in the 3rd/4th quarters with successful wells coming on-line. With the increased price in NG, ARP should really start printing money as they expand and that should roll over into the drilling program as investors there see higher returns. They weren't quite clear on the Marble Falls drilling but indicated that the wells drilled will return about 50% IRR so that sounds good.
The one thing that concerned me was their coments about trying to move back into Southwestern PA. I'd worry about over paying - prices there have really risen and while there are still some small producers with acreage that might need cash - much of that type of thing has already played out.
All in all a good solid report and looking forward to seeing these many wells get into production later this year.
I apologize. I was not a shareholder in 1999. But I've owned for a long time and haven't seen anything from the spin-offs while being a shareholder. The most recent being GOV which had the impact of losing 1/2 of the cash flow from the buildings spun off (as I believe they sold 50% interest in GOV and held the rest) and giving these clown cash to buy class B real estate to boost the management fee.
Well the top line numbers look decent and will wait to hear/read the call tomorrow. When these new wells come on-line 2nd half of the year we should see a lot more cash flowing through - good to see we own 35% - lots of NG in those wells.
Total and complete BS. Today's conference call only allowed analysts to participate and ask questions - two selected questions below.
Why didn't they just stick with selling assets to improve the balance sheet? Real answer - because RMR would see lower fees. Better to screw the shareholders.
Why doesn't CWH provide the same data set as other REITs? Real Answer - Because if we did it would be obvious to all that we have spent years selling any and all assets that appreciate in value and buying anything at a higher price that will increase RMR fees - irregardless of the impact to long term cash flow, tenant quality, location, etc.
The recent moves are simply unethical. Designed to protect the Portney's family cash cow that is RMR and screw shareholders.
Exhibit A of why our corporate governance system is hopelessly outdated and in dire need of change.
How many shares of all the spin offs did shareholders receive? I can answer that because I've been a shareholder - ZERO. They sell off anything that appreciates so they can buy more assets and pump up the RMR management fees. Plain and simple. RMR wins, shareholders lose.
I was and am fairly ambivalent about it. I can understand that setting it up as a seperate entity makes that segment of the business easier to understand. It also allows them to issue equity against just that part of the business. And finally, it allowed them to promote one of their executives to the position of president - assuming he's good that would perhaps enable them to hold to him long term.
In terms of the 17 years of drilling sites - I say good! I want to be alive and receiving distributions from ARP and ATLS in 17 years. And what is wrong with organic growth - slowly building a solid organization that expands gradually and turns that 17 years into 10 years over time (combined with increased cash flows). I strongly prefer doing that hard work and seeing gradual increases versus trying to be smarter than everyone else and financially engineering a better short term outcome.
Remember, the disastrous hedging fiasco almost destroyed the firm. Why revisit that? Lets do the hard work of selling investments in the drilling program - drilling the wells, developing the knowledge and people to expand every year and bring in the cash. And if we make a few more good acquisitions then perhaps we'll have 25 or 30 or 35 years of solid prospects.
I'll pick hard work over financial hocus pocus every time.
I took it to mean they would simply be directly listed on the NYSE - and the ADR's would be switched for shares under the new ticker symbol.
Well getting .51 and .61 would be very nice.
I vote absolutely NO on financial engineering. There is no such thing as excess reserves. Those are just reserves that we will develop in the future to support distributions for many years. Lets forget about fancy dancy thing and focus on execution .
I'd remind people that this is the same crowd that hedged our way into almost bankrupting the company the last time they tried fancy financial engineering. When they got the fancy bet terribly wrong - and I mean it was the laughing stock of the industry wrong, we had to sell off two very solid systems just to stay afloat. NO MORE! Just drill and raise money through the drilling program and keep expanding year after year. If we can do a good acquisition (I'd prefer they stick to acretive acquisitions) thats fine. BUT NO MORE TRYING TO BE SMARTER THAN EVERYONE ELSE!!!!!
Its available at seeking alpha. Call seemed pretty positive. A lot more moving pieces going forwards. Execution will be key. Looks like ethane rejection may continue through end of the year at some systems. They did sound a cautionary note about CHK and SD (I've been pointing out SD could be a problem at some point in time) plans for drilling. Otherwise, just need to keep executing.
Hopefully, we'll see NGL pricing start to firm up. NG pricing has been a positive the past few months.
APL should start to see cash from the expansion this quarter and even more the second half. With the acquisition it appears we won't start to see growth until 2nd half of 2014. Hopefully they will lay out a timeline in terms of how they intend to grow this new system.
Saw that also - Only way around it would have been to announce distributions before the offering with an immediate record date.
Well its been a long long time but we did pass through $20. Looks like FFO definitely will be over $2 this year and that leaves room for continued dividend increases. I get the feeling that future growth comes down to the three blocks in Philly. My guess is that some sort of mix of high end condos, restaurants and more office space will be the plan. Given the government involvement it could take 2-3 years to actually see something through.
With the reduced leverage we should see a higher P/FFO in the future. Its not tough to see a $25 price in another 2 years with a .22 quarterly dividend (they proved me wrong with my penny a year increase, so now I'm guess 2 cents a year). Overall good news.