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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

davidbdc2001 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 6:38 PM Member since: Nov 12, 2008
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  • davidbdc2001 by davidbdc2001 Jan 3, 2015 3:28 AM Flag

    Given the BBEP announcement this evening and doing some back of the envelope I'd expect that we'll soon be getting .0833 to .10 a month going forward.

    For those of us that hold APL, ATLS and ARP - much lower payouts over the next few years than what was expected this time last year.

  • Reply to

    What is Driving MHG down?

    by robcrowley126 Dec 12, 2014 7:15 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 19, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    We sell a commodity. All you need to do is look at a chart of salmon prices and we will basically move in concert with occasional divergence based on company news.

  • davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 15, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    What financials are you looking at?

    The margins on the drilling program are huge - its fee based and flows to the bottom line.

  • Reply to

    spinco now valued under $1

    by marklibera Dec 12, 2014 10:08 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 15, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    I agree with the PXD statement completely and its the reason this unitholder was so upset about the purchase price (especially for ATLS since they basically owned the future growth).

    The whole issue about buying ATLS now is that TRGP only pays about 3% in dividends. So your truly betting on capital gains. Given the environment, TRGP could fall a lot more.

  • davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 15, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    I think you should read the whole filing.

    Do you believe they will raise $275MM through the partnership program in 2015? I don't.

    The biggest single financial news piece over the past month is oil price going straight down. Even folks that don't pay much attention are aware of the doom/gloom. Now think about who they raise money from through this program - doctors, dentists, attorneys, small business owners, etc. Think those folks want to fork over their hard earned money to drill for oil in 2015?

    They would do ARP a world of good if they would release a sensitivity analysis that went out 5 years at different prices of oil AND confirmed their debt covenants.

    At this point, a supply disruption somewhere in the world is about the only thing that is likely to trigger oil regaining some of the 40%+ loss from the past month.

  • Reply to

    The Way Out

    by bosox_pats Dec 6, 2014 9:20 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 8, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Because in the short history of ARP - we've had about three different strategies - 1st we were NG producer - then we switched to oil and liquids - then we became "opportunistic", whatever that is.

    We don't specialize in a commodity. We don't specialize in a process. We don't specialize in a geography. We just seem to specialize in chasing deals - and too often those deals are proving to be drastically overpriced (which I've noted more than once when the deals were done). The simple reality is that Cohen isn't the smartest guy in the room - he just thinks he is.

    And absolutely no one is willing to invest real money in a firm that can't even tell you what the legal structure will be next year! I can't even think of a similar occurrence by any company in any industry. Who thinks they can just say that some type of entity will be ARP's GP but they'll let us know in 6 months exactly what that entity will look like?

    The reason we are thrown onto the junk pile is self-induced IMO through management's constantly changing strategies and total lack of transparency. Are all oil related companies down - yes - are the all down about 50%? No!

  • Reply to

    The Way Out

    by bosox_pats Dec 6, 2014 9:20 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 8, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Bosox,

    Down but not a disaster? What do you call an $11 unit price?

    We are so far away from a unit price that would allow any type of flexibility and/or deal that its not even funny. $20 minimum. We are at 11 BUCKS!!

    Oil down 2.5% today and we go down 9%? At this rate when oil hits $60 we'll be at 3 bucks.

    I hate to say it because I lose too - but this has the look/feel of a total disaster. We are well beyond amateur hour into the simply sad territory. This is gross negligence. You didn't address my questions. Can you think of any example that is similar to our selling half of ATLS and telling folks that we'll figure something out for the other half of the business.... IN SIX MONTHS!

    Regards,

  • Reply to

    The Way Out

    by bosox_pats Dec 6, 2014 9:20 AM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 7, 2014 2:57 AM Flag

    Bosox,

    Way way too optimistic and you totally ignore the self-induced part of this collapse.

    No one is willing to hear management say that "they will figure something out" in SIX MONTHS TIME!

    Can you think of another example of a business basically selling half of itself FOR NO PREMIUM. And telling its shareholders that they will figure out a way to make the other half of the business into something valuable?? Oh, and they will also let shareholders know what legal structure will exist in about 6 months?

    This whole thing is amateur hour. A stated strategy of "we will be opportunistic" is laughable.

    Where is the sensitivity analysis showing cash flows over the next 4-5 years at different oil price levels?

    I could go on and on - I've been told a deal to refinance and extend about 150-200 million of debt fell apart this week. The way out is to get someone like Dubay to agree to come and run the firm and send the Cohen's off to one of their other entities to play monopoly.

  • davidbdc2001 by davidbdc2001 Dec 7, 2014 2:50 AM Flag

    I was told today by someone that I respect as knowledgeable, that ARP was working on a 150-200 million dollar loan to extend debt and the deal fell apart this past week. Supposedly this was fairly well known in the hedge fund world and the main reason for the fall from $15 down to $12.

  • Reply to

    Well

    by islandboy379 Dec 5, 2014 4:11 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 6, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Wow - I bought 5000 units at 13.50. And ARP doesn't pay me 250K or so to attend a few meetings a year and approve Cohen and son pay packages.

  • Reply to

    Insider buy

    by jbcguy Dec 3, 2014 5:43 PM
    davidbdc2001 davidbdc2001 Dec 4, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    BFD.

    I bought 5,000 units at $13.50. Who cares.

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