Actually I believe NG had surged past $4 - around 4.30 when the pulled the trigger.
Irregardless, we need $4.50 + to really see cash flowing through from the last deal (at least when I did my back of the envelope). We could use a few more Artic blasts through the Northeast.
Hope everyone enjoys their Christmas - Merry Christmas!
Well, some of the coldest weather in the past couple of years is on its way! Hopefully it will put a dent in inventories and help sustain the recent price increase. We could use a cold couple of months.
well it could have been worse - Exton Square Mall JCP will soon close. We'll see how long it takes to fill the space. This mall has seen a lot of change in the past few years so perhaps there will be some demand from other retailers.
The foot traffic at all malls was down over 10% this CMAS from everything I've read - I'm interested to hear if PEI addresses this in the conference call.
Don't know if anyone has posted about this yet. CVX announced they are working with Jeffrey's to sell the West Texas LPG Pipeline that we own 20% of. I would think that if they are selling their 80% APL might go ahead and divest if the price was decent.
Highest close in about three years I think. With cold weather going through the weekend in much of the country demand/supply should stay in our favor. We need about three more big winter storms between now and the end of February to keep prices strong.
It closed today at $4.689 per million British thermal units.
You have to look at futures and those haven't moved nearly as much - we need a strong finish to this cold winter. And by strong I mean at least three or four more big snow storms along with week long cold blasts.
Pioneer has some issues this quarter at some of their sites due to weather, so I wouldn't hold my breath for any blowout type numbers.
The best news for APL is that NGL pricing has strengthened.
That's likely the case.
I'm totally not in favor of the switch to monthly distributions. Just another example of the company wasting its time and effort on something other than execution. And it may signal that distribution growth is over.
Glad we are getting the .46 and we'll see what they give as guidance for next year.
That's the spot price. What ARP really needs to see is sustained prices above $4.50 to move the future prices (and help with our latest acquisition which is really only accretive at prices over $4.50 IMO).
We need one more big Artic blast in early Feb and a sustained winter with three or four more snowstorms and we might make enough of a dent in inventories to see a sustained $4.50+ price heading through spring.
I disagree that its about time for this move.
For those that have owned atlas entities for a long time this just smells of yet another "lets be smarter" type move that does nothing for the actual execution of the business. Too much financial engineering and not enough improving operations!
I don't care if I get money once a month or once every three months. What I do care about is a sustainable payout that grows over time. We don't need to keep doing financial engineering - we need to be expanding our production and improving operating costs!!!!!!!!!
Pioneer reported this evening and while they are forecasting about 15% growth next year - they didn't report the kind of increased guidance many thought they might.
I'd just point out that expectations kind of keep creeping downward. I'll be happy if we hit .60 a quarter by year end. APL hasn't executed the plan that was laid out and we haven't seen the increased DCF promised - did some unexpected things happen - yes. If Pioneer starts to slow and we still rely on SD drilling plans - that's a lot of risk. And keep in mind the CVX pipeline is for sale - I hope we aren't the buyers unless its a gift.
ARP - we overpaid for coal methane instead of sticking to the slow and steady small acquisition and have paid the price in terms of lower unit price and that greatly restricts the deals available to us.
I see slower growth that what has been promised. NG futures above $4.50 would cure a lot of ills at ARP but we are a ways away from that. But the recent surge of NG demand should begin to impact futures if inventories continue to be below normal. NGL pricing has been stronger which is a plus us over time. Time will tell.
I don't know any of the details but the headlines certainly suggest the type of deal we should be doing.
Small, close to other production, and accretive immediately.
That is news. Cooperman kept saying that ARP assets were on sale. This would indicate that perhaps he no longer views the assets in the same light - and I have to assume that the continued "next quarter" promises probably wear on him.
My guestimate was about .06 in the next year.
But I don't want to purchase the CVX pipeline unless its a firesale. Without CVX being involved supply might become less stable. It they get a decent price I'd rather divest.
Something is just not right.
All the expansions are on-line. Big acquisition.
And we have DCF coverage of .92? And we are short of where they promised a year ago. And now they promise less for this year.
Is anyone surprised that winter came?
Lot of risk with SD. This may simply be about as good as it gets.
Well hate to say I'm right. APL growth is basically done. Don't know the particulars that are not meeting expectations but all the expansions are fully on-line and we are not close to what they indicated the results would be.
APL coverage ratio this quarter - .92
And that folks, is dangerous territory to be in.
I agree Dubay is a winner. But he's not the one doing deals. Its really bad that we've already written down 5% of an acquisition that is one year old.
Keep in mind that Dubay is now 63?? How much longer do you continue when your handed overpriced assets? It appears that we would have had higher DCF if we didn't do the last large acquisition - that's not a good situation. Continued reliance on SD is a major risk in terms of expected volumes.
Its the boy that cried wolf. We are now in 2014. We have continuously been promised more than what has been delivered. Throw SD risk on top of that and you have the makings of a sell-off.
We waited for the expansion projects - they came on-line a little late - growth is coming - Big acquisition - have to sacrifice for a short period of time and then we'll see additional DCF/unit - Then some unexpected things happen - now we are writing off some of the Cardinal acquisition (if you read between the lines because we can't provide the needed capital to the business unit - as we are already heavily in debt - which was the mantra for about a year about how low our leverage was!) - and WINTER came!! And that's the latest reason for not hitting projections.
A coverage ratio of .92 is bad. Depending on SD for volume growth (and lets face it just for ongoing business) is risky. It appears we'll be at this level of DCF for the next two years - and yes I'm sure they will raise the payout by a penny or two a couple of times. Throw in the history of APL and you've got a lot of reasons for concern.
If you like the current yield and can stomach the risk then that's great - but realize that were we are is not where many unit holders believe they were told we'd be.
The cash has already been paid!
Basically, they are saying that in 2012 this part of the business was worth 47 Million. Today its worthless.
Its just simply not acceptable. Either the purchase price should have been lower, or the unit should have not been part of the purchase, or they should have lined up someone else to purchase it.
They are basically letting unit holders know they burned 47 Million of their dollars in a year. Sorry.