There is more likelihood of the US exporting oil than importing more oil, regardless of Iran or the rig count. We just have so much oil already.
So the real issue is how would exporting oil affect tanker rates and NAT?
Numerous t.v. commentators saying Saudis are continuing to flood the world in oil, leaving few places to store the excess. This of course is good for tanker rates and NAT stock price.
I don't recall any of any connection between the spread and tanker rates. the spread does affect refiner profits, but that's a different matter.
so what happens when the price of oil goes up after production is cut? the same reasoning says that will be a negative of tanke rates.
World oil supply continues to grow despite China. Chinese economy and oil demand continue grow, just at a slower rate. Also, China uses more VLCCs than Suzies.
very superficial and speculative analysis. start-up biotechs are almost always cash flow negative, so nothing explanatory there.
The oil sector is volatile and the tanker industry is leveraged to it. It does not change the fundamentals which are favorable for NAT. i.e. supply of tankers is weaker than demand.
Nat moves on other drivers than just rates. Geopolitical oil concerns do it too, like Russian bombing inm Syria.