Will be interesting to see what happens next now that all these hopes and dreams have been dashed,
I have not covered although I'm considering taking the gain in this tax year rather than next for personal reasons.
As you say, I'm sure we'll have plenty of volatility. Many millions of short shares will need to be purchased on the buy side.
And on the sell side, along with Jcoolaid and other folks curled up in the fetal position,
we have Paulson who has already dumped shares recently before the Bad News, and Chandler owning 9? million shares holding the proverbial bag. Both of these guys apparently have been misled, and I'm sure are quite unhappy with any chance of a positive outlook far into the future.
Throw in Phil, who now has no connections with the present company, and possibly holding 8% of the stock.
My guess is that there will be slightly more sell side pressure than buy side over the next few months.
OK paid pumper.
Anything you say.
Say hi to Getit who probably sits in the cubicle next to you.
They may defend their previous viewpoint, or maybe how they were misled, but not necessarily the current stock price or current P:V.
I've covered some of my short position, but I won't be going long this biz.
Good luck to you and Eric though.
Maybe I'll be wrong, (and I'll be happy to apologize if I am)
But if no deal by end of month,
I fully expect you to be among those who continue to preach the viability of the resource, and patience to long suffering shareholders well into January, or 2015, or 2016, or....
It appears to me that you consider "Managing Expectations" to be your primary duty here...no?
I heard Tilson say not long ago he hasn't used message boards in many years,
Both guys are brilliant investors and more importantly honorable, decent people, and like it or not have been 100% correct on Interoil.
I say next week we start to see the cracks develop...
We start to see Hottubber and others,
wring their hands with impatience, complain a little,
all in the effort to make the REAL pawns feel they are ALSO unhappy with a 2014 deal............
but............in the end, and ultimately,
They will tell us, they "believe in the resource".
So THEY will continue to soldier on.
And of course the implied message, YOU should as well !
Great logic Sail.
It looks like a great deal, because it neeeeeeds to be a great deal.
If IOC was NOT going to get uber loads of up front cashola to keep them solvent.....then they would never have AGREED to a bank loan that would require a call back upon sale or partnership.
Yes, we know.
IOC calls the shots, always and everywhere,
when it comes to bank loans,
when it comes to XOM, Total, Shell,
Just keep spewing it till it makes sense.
Yes, IOC will force XOM's hand here and crack the long awaited...Deal,, and by end of month which happens to be HESSIONS preferred timing.
If some of that doesn't sound right, just keep re-reading it, and repeating it until it does
The Final Pumpola........just isn't working too well.
Originally I was thinking they'd get this pig to 100 before the Crashola.
Now I'm not so sure.
The fact that we are now 10 months from "Final and Binding" screams that the BEST bid received at that time, and up to today, would have crushed the stock price of this ~4B (with a B!) market cap company.
Apparently, it was neither "Final" nor "Binding".
Which is the simple reason why we haven't seen "A Deal" in many years,
and in the mean time, a shelf has been registered and more expensive leverage added.
Now go and tell us that past and current management is just hanging out there to put the screws to XOM to get the last nickel......nyuk
I expect an announcement this month or early next that PNG has not renewed licenses per the news release in June. After all, they are in exclusive and "confidential" lease negotiations per the latest CC.
Shareholder owners don't need to be kept up to date by their fiduciary minded managers under their hire.
Please buy more,
sell the wheels off your crib
get another share or 2.
Thanks for your insight and advice.
What would YOU conclude ...IF... there is no deal by end of month ?
or by end of January ?
or by our 1 year anniversary of "Final and Binding"...March 1 ?
Bring out the crickets.
Why do they care ? You'd think the time and energy would be much better spent discussing the fundamentals of THEIR business and the management they have entrusted AND PAID, to manage THEIR assets.
So this is very telling.
And a very common theme running with good short opportunities.
I would like to comfort these folks and let them know that imo, the weak handed shorts have long been gone.
It's time to lay the cards down folks.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Geezus, this has been drawn out long enough.
Time to lay our cards down, collectively.
We can all agree on that.
Sentiment: Strong Sell