Not by me.
This is one of my favorite current ideas,
- management keen on buybacks,
- trading at a discount to book,
- large established franchise
- long warrant time duration to let this thing simmer
I doubt either Buffett or Allen would buy FNMA........Allen ?
However, other sharp guys like Kyle Bass, Loeb, Tepper, etc......wouldn't be surprised if they do.
Sure agree with that.
500 index should be option #1 on every plan.
Why wouldn't he try to do the same deal he did with GS and GE and basically just take the market value of the warrants in stock which would be independent of the preferred 6% gig ?
Whatever happens, this is a very nice deal.
How do you ever rationalize going long a biz at ANY price where margins and operating cash flow continue to erode as revenue is scaled up? The going strategy is what, to make up for the losses, in volume?
I challenge you to publicly reason through a $50/share valuation ......take in consideration any level of growth you think makes sense, and the corresponding share dilution that goes with it.
Eliminating cash received from share dilution from operating cash flow show the stark reality that this thing is seriously BRO-KEN!
Graham Smith, current CFO that is retiring, is selling every chance he can and has been for years, he clearly knows this. Marketing costs as a % of revenue have continually climbed for years and now sit at 56% of Revenue!! To a degree, they are subsidizing (and artificializing) revenue growth with marketing cost.
At a market cap of 30B - they need to legitimately *EARN* 3B for an investor to expect 10% annually. And if they earn zero this year, they need to earn 3.3B the following year. In this case, the math is compounded even worse that they have negative earnings and these negative earnings are in growth mode.
But,....... they DO appear to have a great product and their customers love them.
They should have stayed small and been ACQUIRED rather than go on an acquisition spree and destroy shareholder INTRINSIC value.
In this case, the Growth-or-Bust appears to be heading toward the Bust in ever-accelerating speed.
2nd time in 10 years we agree on something....just thought I'd point that out.
FNMA and FMCC up 10 & 12% today.....This keeps up they will soon be my largest position.
Nader (my fellow business partner in the GSE's) came out today and stated he thinks this thing won't get resolved for a number of more years........I would certainly agree.
A lot more water needs to go under the bridge.
Yea, those BAC warrants were Buffett's biggest coup since I became a shareholder 10 years ago.
Tho to me, I value their "worth" or book value by subtracting the liabilities, 12B-5B=7B
The GS and GE warrants would have worked out much better had his timing been 6 months slower on the strike price, or maybe negotiated a longer expiration date at the expense of the interest rate.
Hindsight is always 20/20
I forgot about the Dow issues, thanks for the reminder.
"In terms a third grader can understand:"
Well Beach, goes without saying bro......
No, of course charities and shareholders looking to get out would always like to see higher prices.
Did I mention, it sure raises my hope for human nature seeing you and Hman sincerely looking out for the best interests of the Buffett's beneficiaries like you do.
Btw, why not tell the board what good works these charities you care so deeply about are currently doing and where, and what the effect that lower share prices have on their work. And then tell us how much money YOU gave to these charities last year.
Now, (and only), for the benefit of the newer people on this board who have not had the experience of watching soooo many people, explain a not-very-complicated point to you, sooooo many times,
Only to see you get soooo more confused.
I'll say it one more time,
Berkshire management IS run,
HAS always been run,
and hopefully WILL always be run with the primary interests in mind, of the shareholders that are STAYING, not for those that are leaving.....nor for the charities that you are so fond of protecting.
Bought around June of 2012 I think.
BP really screwed themselves on their "blank check", fill-in-the-amount we owe you, agreement.
It's difficult to believe they could be THIS incompetent.
“In light of our reading of the settlement agreement,” U.S. Circuit Judge Leslie Southwick wrote in the panel’s 2-1 ruling, “we conclude the settlement agreement does not require a claimant to submit evidence that the claim arose as a result of the oil spill.”
An amazing show of incompetence and lunacy.
"I'm getting old"
You can't hit the curve anymore bro,
No I'm not going on any errands to dig up misc statistics for you.
You can (attempt) to make a point on your own.
Yes I own Brkb and lower is still gooder.
Is Greensharts still here ?
I'd like an update on that WFC vs 10 yr treasury bet he had with Todd.
Any comment on what you think of BRK's purchase of BNI for 26B, today ?
When UNP now has a market cap of 80B.
I remember you 2 wishing you could, enlighten, the Man on that one.
You 2 could be wrong 10,000 times in a row........and you'd be just as confident in yourselves on the 10,001st time. I find that fascinating.
Congratulations on getting WEB to address your.....Errrr...concerns RE the stock price.
Asked if "activist investors" are really acting in the best interest of targeted companies and their shareholders, Buffett replied, "Generally speaking, they are interested in making a quick profit and there's no law against making quick profits. But our whole attitude in our own business and what we like to see with the businesses we own stock in is we want to run them for the people who are going to stay in rather than the people who are going to get out. At any given time, you can make more money, usually, selling the company. ... The answer isn't to sell the company. The answer is to keep running the company well. ... I could do certain things to jiggle up the price of Berkshire in the short run. It would not be good for the company over five or 10 years."
I also bought both fnma and fmcc last year and added more this year, and recently.
It is now a significant % of my assets. I plan to see this one all the way out, maybe Clarence Thomas will even decide to chime in on this one.
Wonder what my siblings would think if I offered to put my moms estate under my "conservatorship" rather than receivership.
Starting with 10% dividends and 80% free warrants, then when things look economically nicer a few years later.....we'll elect to sweep it, and not make a big fuss over it.
I'll tactfully add to them, and btw, this "conservatorship" is perpetual, and I plan to wind it down asap.
I think Ackman is right, the Guv's case doesn't look that good to me.
Sure that would be very interesting.
But why would he not follow precedent and sweep it?
I think it's safe to assume he won't stick up for the shareholders - he wouldn't have gotten the job if he had had that mindset, imo.
To me it doesn't matter what he does,
What's far more interesting is what comes out of discovery in terms of emails, conversations, uncanny timing, etc.
I have yet to read (but I'd love to pointed to it) a good reasonable argument in the governments favor for justifying the 3rd amendment in Aug 2012.
wow H. 10 years of these type of silly posts, almost daily, no one can say you don't persevere.
It's unfortunate that you didn't, or couldn't, funnel this energy into something more meaningful.
Sure, you're looking out for the "foundations"........how pathetic.
Take a look at the "FT Global 500"
You can download a PDF that shows the largest companies in the world by market cap, earnings, etc
Very interesting to stick salesforce into that list today to see how amazingly bloated this thing really is.
At even a 30B market cap, for a rational investor to expect 10% return over time, the company musts make 3 BILLION in earnings TODAY.
And if that company forgoes these earnings today in order to increase revenue and/or their market position within an industry, (which can occasionally be a very reasonable thing to do)..........then this company must legitimately earn 3.3 BILLION next year.
If they again forgo earnings, the hurdle is 3.63 BILLION the year after.
This is reality folks.
And this does not include any consideration for dilution, etc
"The Market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves,
But unlike the Lord, the Market does not forgive those who know not what they do."