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Apple Inc. Message Board

davionprince 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2014 7:03 PM Member since: Aug 1, 2006
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  • Reply to

    One-year high close

    by stevecallihan1947 Jul 1, 2014 6:40 PM
    davionprince davionprince Jul 2, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    I would have been in a similar boat as you, but timely selling and buying back has helped me to short circuit that. Now up 0.68 cents! May not seem much but with 38,800 shares, that is some pretty pennies! Still under performed what I had (Vanguard Tech fund) at the end of 12/2012. Spent a whole year and a half chasing this waterfall.

    .dp

  • Reply to

    Im Out

    by culleyjc52 Jun 18, 2014 10:41 AM
    davionprince davionprince Jun 20, 2014 12:00 AM Flag

    Selling at the low is probably a pretty close second.

  • davionprince by davionprince Jun 19, 2014 6:39 AM Flag

    BNP penalty highlights the abusive power of the USD and will prompt nations and entities to look for alternatives to the USD as the main reserve currency. This is good at many level for VGPMX.

    1) Gold as a potential reserve
    2) people ditching USD as the sole transactional currency will weaken the USD (and increase the value of commodities relative to the USD).

    .dp

  • I'll start: 2000 shares at 1.48 (long). Likelihood of bankruptcy at 50% (just fear more than anything else). If I know the lenders are comfortable with them and won't force other covenant conditions, and they have the positive cash flow to weather the china downturn, then risk goes down to zero. Once I get better clarity on their covenant situation and the convertible note repurchase solution and bankruptcy is not coming, then I'm willing to buy a lot more.

    .dp

  • davionprince davionprince Jun 13, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    This shouldn't be the investment thesis. This scandal is dropping copper and iron ore prices. Any uptick to gold is lost by the base metal weakness. Instead the investment thesis should be that the world is growing again and the supply excesses will be soaked up by aggregate demand improvement.

    .dp

  • davionprince by davionprince Jun 13, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    After a year of (mis)adventures with this fund, I am finally just... BREAK EVEN!

    I am happy if I just ignore the opportunity cost of missing out on the S&P's 35-40% rise.

    Lost 33/34 cents from my first attack. Lost 14 cents in my second attempt. Made 14 cents in my third and finally am at (paper wise) up 33 cents. Well, it's above the 50 DMA, 100 DMA, and 200 DMA. The world banks are worried about deflation and the economies are finally moving back along in an upward trajectory.... It looks like it'll be a very profitable trade. If only there's more M&A and production by the weak miners are taken out of the market place.

    Good luck all.

    .dp

  • davionprince by davionprince Jun 3, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    Took the round trip, "bad boy" warning from the fund. Oh well, see the fund skimming on the 200 DMA and in deep oversold territory. ECB should be accommodative and I think China will also pull out the stops to support their economy. US continues to hum along, just waiting for the rest of the world to grow up.

    Looking to ride this (for real this time, and besides, the next warning will force me out of this fund for a quarter of a year). Seeing the cup and handle forming... Looking for $13. Good luck all.

    .dp

  • davionprince davionprince May 20, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    Easy, Tiger... Look at the EBITDA to Enterprise value. It's over 12x so, not "cheap". 6x would be cheap. We probably want to see how they manage with the debt covenant and stuff. And the "investors" at the call are all from (undisclosed), so they are probably poor saps like you and I hoping to get management to do the right thing. Likely no angel investor anytime soon.

    I do fantasize about quitting my job, buying $500k worth of MEA, and then going to Carlos to work at Metalico to fix this scrap metal junkyard. He could probably use someone like me,..

    .dp

  • Reply to

    Hedge against exactly what

    by atwood407 May 16, 2014 9:01 AM
    davionprince davionprince May 16, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    VGPMX will outperform the SPY when:
    Economic activity picks up more than the supply of commodities. And, this has to be such that the rest of the world grows more rapidly than the US. Preferably, there is inflation in the US and the USD falls relative to other currencies. Also, it would be helpful if the commodities companies start to shut down production to limit supply.

    Right now, however, the economic activity is not strong enough to soak up the commodities. And the uS is stronger than the rest of the world so the USD is uncharacteristically stronger.

    So we will slog along until the rest of the world catches up. The encouraging thing is EMG economies are improving. Give it another 2 quarters to see how they improve.

    .dp

  • Reply to

    I'm out

    by davionprince Feb 24, 2014 8:09 PM
    davionprince davionprince May 15, 2014 9:31 PM Flag

    Sorry, not getting good vibes from the market. I left yesterday. Sold at 11.11, ironically made back 0.14 cents. Oh well, will be back in the future. Just not sensing the global economies are moving fast enough to soak up the excess anytime soon. Will revisit towards the end of June.

    .dp

  • Reply to

    A day to celebrate!!

    by magkandler May 15, 2014 5:19 AM
    davionprince davionprince May 15, 2014 7:00 AM Flag

    You know, it is so f'ed up when he "died" before his sentencing... He and his estate never had to make any restitution for the fraud. Justice unserved, please #$%$ one for me as well. Have fun.

  • davionprince by davionprince May 11, 2014 11:47 PM Flag

    Is it so hard for the CEO and CFO to project financial impact if milk prices stay elevated?

    Why do people think milk prices will actually come back down?

    Thanks,

  • Reply to

    Predicting End of Day price changes

    by davionprince Apr 23, 2014 8:02 AM
    davionprince davionprince May 2, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    I must say I am not satisfied w the price movement today. I was thinking 1%+ today with AEM over 9%. I hope the fund's price movements move up more quickly. I do not want a repeat of 2013.

    .dp

  • Reply to

    Back in full @10.97

    by davionprince Apr 17, 2014 6:21 PM
    davionprince davionprince Apr 27, 2014 6:54 AM Flag

    Thanks. I think in the past the fund was more into these smaller more volatile plays and resembled more GDXJ. I suspect that the fund managers are now buying less precious and more economically sensitive companies (which is what I like anyways). Also, I am following the top 10 more for an indication of price movements. So AEM, JMAT, UMI, DDC, ILU, ACO, BHP, NSU, POT, etc. From those I was able to sense that the past two days were possibly up days before the end of day price.

    If it was based on GdXJ, the fund may have been up another 5%. Oh well, like I said, I would rather put my fortunes on more economic activity growth than safe haven gold speculation. So I like this fund's current composition (I just want this confirmed through an examinations of the funds current holdings).

    .dp

  • davionprince by davionprince Apr 26, 2014 9:15 PM Flag

    Seems like the current Ukraine/ Russia conflict will be a net positive for this fund. Absent that we are still in an over supply market. But, you know what? I'll take whatever form positive returns come in. Profits are to be loved nonetheless.

    Good luck and be well,
    .dp

  • I used to know this fund and was able to predict price changes based on some of the underlying investments but I have since gone cold. Does anyone have a clue? It's very disconcerting not knowing what moves this thing. Is the fund consistent w my investment thesis?

    .dp

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