At some point the blood bath ends and the stock being so oversold rockets back up. I think we get the first big spikes a few days just before earnings, which is early next week. JMHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think it will definitely happen after approval. All the financial requirements will have been met.
I agree. Every time there was a slight dip and a little profit taking buyers rushed in and gobbled up the ASK. Very cool.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I really have not been following any other stock except CLSN. I was totally into it. I must have been putting in all my spare time plus learning everything I could about ThermoDox. Until the last few days I thought we had a winner.
Now I will start looking at the stocks you suggested plus several others ISIS, TTNP, EDAP, IMUC, IND, RNN, DCTH, RPTP, TSRX, SRTP EXEL, TEAR, BLRX, APPA, VKMO, NWBO, OREX, PEIX, ETC
My tendency is to eventually focus on the one that has both the most potential and most promising chance of approval. After I make a choice I learn everything there is to know about the company, its drug, management, its competition, funding issues, milestones, catalysts, potential pitfalls etc. Once I get locked-in I will relentlessly follow track it and keep on top of all issues as it moves closer and closer to approval along with its increasing pps.
I know others like to invest in several biotechs. However, with so many moving parts and issues with each one of these companies I find it difficult to be all knowledgeable in more than one. It is just the way I invest and trade.
Thanks for the list. I will include those in my search for another company.
I am sorry you lost money; however, your post is not telling the whole story.
Was I a fan of CLSN over the last 6 months? Absolutely. So were 149 out of a 149 posters on this message board. They all thought CLSN would be successful. Not just successful but wildly successful with a 13.6 vs 30.3 average for results. That represents over a two-hundred percent improvement.
And it wasn't just the message board posters that thought it would be successful. So did every single officer on Celsion management team and the board of directors. So did many analysts, some had price targets of $18 per share.
I put in over a hundred hours building a quantitative model to test whether or not management's confidence could be justified. I did not hide any of the variables or assumptions. I let everyone know exactly how I constructed the model, and performed my calculations for all to see. I posted the particulars of the model on the board. Over four pages long. The model was scrutinized by hundreds and I implemented the concerns that many message board posters raised.
I also posted that people should not invest more than they could afford to lose!
Two days before the results were released I voiced my concerns about the Cowen Healthcare conference cancellation. Most people ridiculed my concerns. I related a similar experience regarding BioSante and how that company pulled out of their Oppenheimer Healthcare conference and the stock dropped by 90 percent.
Finally, I told the board 4 hours before the end of trading, not 20 minutes before the end, that I had sold. Many ridiculed my reasons and said the Cowen Healthcare conference was an insignificant detail. It turns out it was not.
You made a decision to buy Celsion. You made a decision to hold through results. It did not turn out the way we would have liked. But in the end it was your decision to sell or not to sell.
Nobody makes money on every company. I have been burned many times on trades. It never feels good to lose money. Fortunately I have also made some good trades. However in all cases it was me who had to bear the consequences for my trades.
Hey, where are those .50 shares you promised by January 31st. Oh wait, did you mean January 31, 2014? Sorry, I thought you were talking about yesterday.
By the way, congratulations on the correct call. All longs were wrong, including management.
So when do you think the Hedge Funds will reverse the algorithm and start buying to cover?
I posted the winning thread all day yesterday. I will repost it. Look for it at the top in a minute.
I would say they knew when they cancelled the Cowen Healthcare conference. When they cancelled I have no idea. With so many eyes watching, remember it was a client of Cowen that tweeted the news initially on twitter, I cannot imagine they cancelled very early.
I actually think the bear raid would have happened under any circumstances. Hedge Funds know retail investors are extremely nervous before a binary event. They know they can scoop up a lot of cheap shares, take out stops, by shorting a million or so shares. Easy money for them. I have seen it done with on both good and bad companies. Companies that had successful trials and obviously with companies whose trials failed.
By and large I think Celsion management played it straight. They seemed genuinely shell-shocked at the conference call.
I understand that. Thanks. However, it was more of a strategic trading question. The hedge fund managers have programmed their algorithm to take down the pps to a certain point. They have committed x-amount of dollars to do it. At some point they will have beaten down the optimal amount of retail investors.
Now, they must calculate when to buy back knowing full well that there are a lot of other shorts waiting for the bottom to hit before covering. After all, after the bottom is hit the first one to cover maximizes profits. There are also a lot of daytraders and speculators on the side ready to jump in at the first sign of a recovery pop.
So where do you think the bottom is? Don't say zero we are not children. We both know companies can limp along for decades if they desire. I don't know the answer but I anticipate some spike recoveries. Maybe short lived but they could be significant even if they are only last a few days or weeks.
I am glad the BPAX story helped you. Others have told me similar things.
My rule is two weeks before a binary event, I am on hyper-alert status. If the company does anything suspicious I bail. The rule saved me again this time. Conference cancellations, lack of press releases when one is expected, no advertising of major events on websites etc. are all huge red flags.
Cheers and GLTY on all future trades.
4 hours and 1 minute before the close actually. I gave my reasons. Perhaps you should have paid attention? You seem to have trouble with details and accuracy.
I am watching in utter amazement the brutal efficiency of an algorithm trader grind the pps lower and lower.
Shorts, okay you guys won. However, at some point you have to cover in order to bank your profits, right? At what point do you do that? Comments.
SRT, you are a professional trader emeritus. Where and when do you think the slow takedown of the pps will end? Or do you think hedge funds will cover only when Celsion offers secondaries? I would be very interested in your opinion. At some point the short masters must reverse the process, but when and where in your expert opinion? Will we know it happened by a huge spike up in the pps, or will algos slowly allow the pps to climb?
I think we are watching a bunch of day traders playing "cat and mouse" with a pps that is critically injured. Could the pps escape. Sure, but like the critically injured mouse, it us not likely and if it does it won't get very far. Jmho
Totally out. Just watching this tragedy unfold.
Jmho but it is risky to be in a company where management has just been shell-shocked. I don't think even they know which direction they will pursue.
If they suddenly decide to go for broke and ramp up all the other trials it will increase costs significantly. They will need to raise more and more money and that will be tough to do at such a low pps, and it could prove devastating to investors.
In the weeks and months ahead after combing the data they may find some group, combined with some strata that appears to ave benefitted from ThermoDox. At that point I think the pps could rally some. Right now it looks like day traders will be playing with dead cat bounces and avoiding dilution minefields. Pretty risky stuff.
Cheers and Glty.
I am taking a bit of a break and just watching the action here. This will be a classic story of a failed but once promising liver trial. There was so much optimism on the part of investors, including myself, and management. I almost held through the binary event but I could not shake the significance of the Cowen Healthcare conference cancellation.
I agree with you that there is money to be made in bios; however, eternal vigilance and constant DD is the price you pay if you want to be successful.
I have not started looking seriously for a new bio but soon will. VICL, DARA, KERX are few I glanced at. At some point I will concentrate on one and get totally absorbed and committed.
Cheers and Glty.
It really depends on their new corporate strategy. Do they continue with the Heat trial and also ramp up the pipeline trials?
At our current burn rate $25 million gets you year plus. However ramping up other trials will add to costs.