Absolutely true. Hundreds of different sales reps from all over the country use the message board. Everyone is anonymous. That is why the site is so popular. You do not have to be guarded or worried about reprisals from your current or future boss.
The information was not gleaned from one post but hundreds of post over a 5 month period. Cheers, glty.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A common thread amongst the would be Acadia sales reps was the repeated delays in the multiple-stage interview process. Many passed the first and second round interviews but then received several postponements for the all important panel interviews.
There was much speculation about the constant rescheduling. Most reasoned that the company wanted to be more comfortable with the prospect that Nuplazid would be approved. The April 25th start date was probably no accident.
I think the company is very, very confident that Nuplazid is going to be approved. They have got a seasoned sales force lined up and will be using specialty pharmacies to roll out our little gem.
Upon approval I think we are going to get a wonderful press release describing how they are going to move very fast to get our drug out into the market place. Jmho.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You can find the closing price for Put contracts by looking for the options menu on the left side of yahoo finance page. Click on it. Now look for Puts. Scroll down you will find them. Now look for a 31.00 strike price on the left column. Now look for the closing price. You see $2.50
You would buy a hundred Put contracts at a strike price of $31.00 per share. Each contract covers a 100 shares. 100x100 = 10,000 shares covered. Each Put option @31.00 costs $2.50 at today's closing price. $2.50 x 10,000 = $25,000.
So for $25,000 you could protect 10,000 shares from any losses below $31 per share. You are protecting 10,000 x $32.40 = $324,000 worth of stock for $25,000.
You are paying 7.72 percent of your $324,000 to protect your 10,000 shares from losses under $31,
Excellent point. We are hours away from having a commercial drug that has a future potential revenue stream of $3-$10 billion in annual revenue. With approval we are now a gigantic Big Pharma target, either as a buyout or partnership. We will also most certainly receive a dozen or so upgraded price targets.
I still think we will get a good pop tomorrow, or Monday if FDA drags this out. Glty
That is singular focus. I hope for the best, for you, your family and the patients locked in mental misery. Glty and I hope we get good news first thing tomorrow morning.
I feel like I cannot stop looking at the computer while the market is open during regular and extended hours. It makes for long days.
Those concerns are real in any trial, not specific to just Alzheimer patients.
He seemed to be implying that the impact of Nuplazid is so weak that a placebo effect could generate the same positive weak outcomes as treated patients. I don't think that will be the case.
Hours away. Thumbs up to that. I am just a Johnnie come lately but nonetheless feel the heat.
Some of you guys have been here several years. It must feel like college graduation, or like seeing the birth of your first child (slight exaggeration). Congratulations to all of you. Payoff time. Cheers.
This is information off the Cafe Pharma website. Check it out. Look for the biotech start up menu. Then look for Acadia.
The information was gleaned off the message boards. All of the posters are anonymous for good reasons. Think about it. These are for the most part currently employed pharmaceutical sales reps. They are in the process of looking for new positions, commenting on the interview processes, discussing offers, describing working conditions at their current jobs, thinking of quitting their jobs etc.
They do not want this sensitive information traced back to them or their current or future employers. Is everyone telling the absolute truth -- probably not. However, you can get a broad idea from reading hundreds of anonymous posts what may or may not be true.
The appeal of the site is that it is anonymous and you can express your opinions and feel free from reprisal. Cheers and Glty.
Depends on how you hedge. Let's say you hedge your shares by buying Puts at a 31 dollar strike price. That means you have the option to sell shares at 31 even if the stock price falls way below 31, say to 10 dollars. You are protected on the downside.
Assume you have the same hedge as above and there is a short squeeze, implying the stock price goes way up to say $55 dollars per share. You get all the profit from the price rise. The Puts do not hurt you. You do not have to exercise the option. It is an option. In this case you would only lose the price the Put options cost you.
Last case, the stock price drops like a rock. Let's say it goes to 10 dollars. You exercise the option to sell your shares at 31 dollars. You only lost 1.40 per share, using today's closing price, plus what you paid for the Puts, which is a lot less than you would gave lost.
Now if you think the price is going to go back up you can buy a lot of shares at 10 dollars per share with the money you got from exercising your Put options. You probably have 2-1/2 more shares than you originally owned. If the stock returns to 32.40 you will have made a fortune.
You may indeed be a wise-man. I try not to get emotional when it comes to money and I do focus on his arguments. I find his sudden dim views to be overly pessimistic.
Maybe we won't hit 50 immediately on approval but I certainly think we will get a huge pop on approval. We will own a commercial drug that has no competitors, it will have extensive off-label potential and the company is a Big Pharma buyout target according to many people in the industry. Jmho and Glty.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Extremely negative view for someone claiming to be long. Jmho.
If I felt the stock had peaked, approval was baked-in and the price after approval would likely fall I would not be holding the stock. That would not make sense. And that is only in the short run.
If I felt ACAD would never complete another trial because of potential fallout from embarrassing placebo effects I would never own the stock again. If anything I would short it. That would be the rational thing to do.
Why would I leave if it does not hit 50, because I was wrong? Apparently that is no reason to leave. You have been wrong many times as I have so clearly pointed out and you are still here.
Do you really have to insult people you do not know. Isn't that a bit childish? Are you really that fragile?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That is interesting . So you think Spader is right. Since he has made so many negative posts as of late I must ask you when do you think he was right. Not too long ago he posted the following:
1. There is only a 65 percent chance that Nuplazid will be approved. Since 10 years of documented history shows that after a positive AdCom vote, 88 percent of the time the FDA approves the drug. What is so bad about Nuplazid? What do you and Spader know that the AdCom missed.
2. There is a 35 percent chance of outright rejection!
3. Even if The FDA approves the stock price will only hit 28-30 dollars per share. Well pre-approval we already hit 35 so I assume you don't agree with that. Or maybe you do?
4. When the price was 34 he said approval was already baked-in the price? Wouldn't that mean he is saying approval is near a 100 percent guarantee. But then how does that jibe with only a 65 percent approval probability.
5. He says he is Long, but if the current price is above his post approval price and he thinks the stock will sell off after approval, why would he be holding the stock. And if he sold his position because he thinks the price will drop after approval, isn't that what shorts believe? So is get short the stock? If he is short the stock why does he claim to be A Long?
If you have not already done so, it is an interesting read the new sales rep candidates discussing their offers from Acadia. After reading several hundred posts that span about 5 months you can draw these broad conclusions:
1. About 135 sales reps have been hired.
2. There start date was April 25, 2016.
3. Base salaries are in the 115-130k range. They will be given new cars, a Fusion for most and Escape for snow territories. They will be a bonus to sign. There are incentives. Stock options will be provided in the 2,000 range, maybe up to 4,000 shares. They will be priced in the 20s. It appears options are critical because many applicants feared an imminent buyout after approval. If a buyout occurs they will get a tidy little sum.
4. Most were anxious to work in this neuro-science field, especially with a drug that has no competitors.
5. Most felt the hiring process was excruciating and took too long. Very frustrating.
6. Since most of these applicants already had jobs as reps it was interesting to note that they all claimed Big Pharmas were targeting ACAD for a buyout. Many felt a buyout was imminent but the options were a good escape hatch.
7. Many felt the drug would be easy to market and sell.
I thought the time spent on the site was interesting and worthwhile. Cheers.
Sentiment: Strong Buy