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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

davisfoulger 924 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Aug 21, 2007
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  • davisfoulger davisfoulger 3 hours ago Flag

    It says to others that everything the author says about the bonds is true for the common, but with a growing and already higher yield.

  • davisfoulger davisfoulger 3 hours ago Flag

    Compensation was involved, but it's not quite that simple. Yahoo was treating Seeking Alpha's article listings as advertising and charging "click through" advertising pricing for them while presenting them as news headlines (can you say "misrepresentation"?). Yahoo raised its price to seeking alpha, probably because was losing eyeballs to them. Seeking Alpha said no and has moved the money it was using to pay Yahoo into paying their writers. Not a bad trade off, especially if board members on Yahoo keep referencing the articles on Seeking Alpha".

  • The deck chair reshuffling at NRF is over and the returns are coming in. Based on that I sold the new management company (NSAM) and bought NRF. I haven't brought the size of my position up the reverse split adjusted size that it was at before, as things haven't fully played out yet, but NRF was about a 5.8% yield before the reverse split and division of the company into NRF and NSAM and we have forward estimates for both dividends. NRF is expected to pay a 40 cent dividend going forward. NSAM is expected to pay a 10 dividend going forward.

    I took those actions mostly because NSAM is still high and NRF now has a yield that is almost as high as RAS. That was predictable. Indeed, here's what I said in February" "The disposition of the asset management company is a major unknown, so I'll hold those shares after the split and wait to see what happens. NRF itself will be more predictable. Cut back to its core business it's yield will probably rise and its price will fall."

    The reverse split muddies the water a bit, but here's what happened.

    1 - NSAM took the large share of the money stream (all the non-traded REITs it manages plus a rich piece of NRF). Since it isn't a REIT, it doesn't have to pay a large dividend, and it isn't planning too. For all intents and purposes, that "smart management" stole a huge fraction of NRF's earnings from shareholders. A lot of investors will like this, so NSAM's price may not get hit, but I'm out in any case.

    2 - NRF took the smaller share of the money stream. Since it is a REIT it's still paying out most of its profits as a dividend. After the reverse split and dividend allocation, NRF's dividend has been reduced from 25 cents pre-split to 20 cents pre-split (40 cents post-split on half as many shares). The combination brings NRF's yield up to 8.6% (pretty close to RAS' yield). Bottom line, its yield has risen and it's price (about $9.30 pre-split) has fallen). The split muddies things, but I was right.

  • davisfoulger davisfoulger 5 hours ago Flag

    It's about one of the bond issues. He makes some good points, but it's definitely bond oriented. Those who focus on bonds will get value.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 10 hours ago Flag

    I wish you showed evidence of thinking for yourself, gtw.

    My analysis is my own, but I do some things you don't do. First, I actually do analysis. That's pretty unusual for you. Second, I detail the rational behind my analysis so other people (including you, if you had the courage to actually do research) can check it. You remain long on accusation and short on finding any real fault with my rationales.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 10 hours ago Flag

    LOL. "Yes"? But WHY? Put yourself on the line Joel. Why should eth do something so counter-intuitive.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 18 hours ago Flag

    IRT has been forthcoming about the cap rates on the properties it has purchased. I suggest, needo, that you do a little research before making things up. I've done the research, so I most certainly CAN make that statement.

  • Reply to

    Market creates opportunities

    by stonergreg13 Aug 28, 2014 11:36 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 18 hours ago Flag

    There's really only one trading day left this month.

    We'll get a dividend announcement later this month. We might retest the low if the dividend is 18 cents, but I expect 19 cents. The market usually anticipates a dividend announcement with a price rise. It's a little early for a run up to dividend announce to start, but the announce should be in three weeks or so, so its not that early. I won't say it can't happen, but I wouldn't count on a big reduction in price from where we are now. I have money waiting if the price does pull back, but I suspect that the price is more likely to go up next month.

  • Reply to

    Market creates opportunities

    by stonergreg13 Aug 28, 2014 11:36 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    Back over $8. The market reacts emotionally to a whole variety of world events, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that a land grab in the Ukraine isn't going to affect RAS' business.

  • Reply to

    Market creates opportunities

    by stonergreg13 Aug 28, 2014 11:36 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    How is throwing darts a "better plan". It's pretty easy to name people who have been beating the indexes by playing RAS volatility and predictable long term price movement. I haven't seen any evidence, on the other hand, that you are anything but a loud-mouth loser who couldn't pick a good stock if it was presented to you on a silver platter.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    You'll have to let me know which "Communications Handbook" your "list to nowhere" appears in. I've never heard of the concept, and a search doesn't reveal any matches that place the phrase in a "communications handbook".

    Bottom line, I think you're making things up again.

    If you want to make an argument, try showing how even one of the items in my four point list is wrong. You might convince me of something that way.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Here's the problem with your thesis. You don't really know if values are out of whack or not. The cap rates that IRT is getting on its purchases have been extremely good so far. That's not an indication that values are "out of whack".

  • davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    LOL. You were saying the same thing about $9.00 at the end of August last year. I think I'll just wait and see.

  • Reply to

    Russia will invade Ukraine this week, and

    by herenowbackforward Aug 11, 2014 11:46 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    I believe I said "you never know". Meanwhile, three weeks have passed.

    But what does this headline have to do with RAS? Russia is clearly in the midst of a real estate grab, but the Ukraine isn't even a tertiary market from the perspective of IRT.

  • Reply to

    Russia will invade Ukraine this week, and

    by herenowbackforward Aug 11, 2014 11:46 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    In what universe is August 28 in the same week as August 11?

    It remains that Russia's real-estate grab is unlikely to affect rents, occupancy, RE prices, or demand for conduit and bridge loans for the foreseeable future. That's what my "sounds like you're in denial was all about.

    My the way, Ukranian Rebels insist that the Russian troops are visiting the Ukraine while they are on vacation, and Russia will doubtless claim that they are lost. Liars.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 28, 2014 1:18 AM Flag

    You haven't thought this through, needo. You don't have to, of course, there are thousands of stocks to choose from and you can pick any reason you want to avoid a subsector. You aren't required to invest in IRT. Nobody is.

    That said, your analysis is incomplete.

    1 - Yes, apartment prices are "absolutely ridiculous", and that will eventually bring about conditions that favor price moderation. That's the way of all real estate cycles. When something is in short supply it costs more.

    2 - Multi-family is in short supply right now for a variety of reasons, and while many of those reasons are directly associated with the great recession, they are very different reasons. The biggest reason is that new construction hasn't kept up with ever growing demand for housing. That's less true in primary markets, but in the secondary and tertiary markets that IRT is operating in it has barely started. 24 months is a very optimistic view of the speed with with that new construction will catch up with demand. Don't get me wrong. It will catch up. That's what makes RE cyclic, but we're in a long cycle.

    3 - We appear to be seeing a major shift in the economics of home ownership. Call it what you want, but a larger percentage of the workforce appears to be unlikely to be able to meet the conditions of home ownership (saving enough for a down payment) anytime soon. Nobody knows how much of a shift there will be, but its unlikely that we'll see 65% home ownership again any time soon. That shift favors owners of multi-family properties, and that shift will last longer than 24 months.

    4 - Multi-family is one of the most stable categories of real estate in economic downturns. Companies may abandon real estate as they downsize in downturns. Retail may have difficulty staying in business when people are cutting back on spending. But everybody needs a place to live. That's not going to change.

    You say you real estate. If you did you would know these things.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 27, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    I expected the high end of expectations to fall somewhat, so the 3 cent reduction from $1.10 to $1.07 was no great surprise, as RAS was delivering numbers that were closer to the lower end of its estimates. Of course the high end of expectations is not what you should measure management by. It's what they hope to do rather than what the expect to do.

    The two cent change in the low end of expectations is more surprising, as RAS first two quarters put it solidly on track to do better than 99 cents. The new 97 cent low end is less of a reduction and really doesn't change anything. It still sets up a dividend increases. It is still reasonable to expect at least 19 cents for 3Q and at least 20 cents for 4Q.

    It's a little early (about six months early to complain about missing numbers. That hasn't happened.

  • Reply to

    New Presentation

    by ethison Aug 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 27, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    JMP conference should be next month. Beyond that, it's simply good to have.

  • Reply to

    Upgrade

    by stonergreg13 Aug 26, 2014 9:06 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 27, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    Ah. You got my point (something needo misses). RAS is volatile (e.g. yo yo) stock. It always has been. Indeed, 2014 (at least so far) has had the smallest spread (as a percentage of the year's high) that it has had in its 17 year history. I expect that to change before the year is out and have little doubt that 2005 will retain its mantle as the year in which RAS had its smallest percentage spread (the low was 22% of the high that year). If 2014 does lose its current lead, it will almost certainly do so in the same manner it usually maintains its relatively high annual spread, by growing both the high and the low. It hasn't grown the high this year. It has grown the low. That's a principal reason why this years average price is higher than last years.

    So the stat isn't "irrelevant". It's symptomatic. It just doesn't impress you because you are more impatient than I am.

  • Reply to

    Upgrade

    by stonergreg13 Aug 26, 2014 9:06 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Aug 27, 2014 12:03 AM Flag

    Pick your time frame for the result you want, needo. RAS was up more than 50% last year ... and you were complaining about Schaffer even then. This year it's down so far, but its still up 40% from the end of 2012 and 30% from the end of August last year. In the meantime the dividend is up 80% from the end of 2012, 38% from the end of August last year, and 12% this year.

    I've said it before. Get over yourself.

RAS
8.09+0.07(+0.87%)Aug 29 4:05 PMEDT

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