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RAIT Financial Trust Message Board

davisfoulger 579 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Aug 21, 2007
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  • davisfoulger davisfoulger 15 hours ago Flag

    Congratulations, Greg. You have a ghost. It's the ultimate compliment by the basher position here.

  • Reply to

    Saturday thoughts

    by stonergreg13 21 hours ago
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 15 hours ago Flag

    You brought it, so let's see how trading around a core position has done for me:

    Over the last two years (since the end of 2012) I'm up 75% on RAS. That's about 25% better than I would have done if I wasn't trading around a core position.

    Since the market bottom, I own 204% more shares, but have only increased by cost basis by 15%. The key: I reduced my net cost per share (or average cost) by 72% (from a split adjusted $9.58/share to $2.72/share). The net: I'm up 494% since the market bottom. That's 2.6x the S&P and 30% better than not trading around a core position on RAS.

    But what do I know. I only have the records of what I did.

  • Reply to

    Saturday thoughts

    by stonergreg13 21 hours ago
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 17 hours ago Flag

    RAS has not been "inferior and underperforming over the last two years. It did poorly in 2014, but it did spectacularly in 2013. Overall, it did quite well over the period. This is easy to confirm:

    1 - RAS rose by 59% in 2013 excluding dividends; by 69% including dividends. The S&P rose by 28% over the same period. RAS obvoiously did a lot better. Here are the numbers for those that want to double check. RAS ended 2012 at $5.65. It ended 2013 at $8.97. That's a $3.32/share gain. Dividend payments for the year totaled 56 cents (12, 13, 15, and 16 cents a quarter). I'm sure there are stocks that did better, but on average RAS beat the market by over two to one.

    2 - Excluding dividends, RAS was down from 15% in 2014. Including dividends it was down less than 5%. The S&P was up 11%. The numbers? RAS ended 2013 at $8.97, ended 2014 at $7.77 and paid 71 cents in dividends (17, 18, 18, and 18 cents a quarter). As I said, RAS did poorly on the year.

    3 - For full year 2013 and 2014, RAS is up, excluding dividends, by 36%. Including dividends it is up 60%. The S&P is up 45%. Overall that's a 25% beat against the S&P over the course of two years. That's pretty clearly NOT "inferior and underperforming". It is considerably above average.

    Greg's perspective is clarly in accord with the results that RAS has delivered.

    More realistically, however, RAS has performed considerably better than its stock price. It's dividend has more than doubled over the last two years (from 35 cents in 2012 to 71 cents in 2014. How many companies can you name that have doubled their dividends over the from 2012?

    And of course if we take a somewhat longer view (the market bottom in 2009, RAS is doing even better. Excluding dividends, it is up 293% from the market bottom versus an S&P improvement of 192% (half again as good). Including dividends it is up 379%. That's double the S&P.

    And that's all without trading around a core position, which simply improves things.

  • Reply to

    IRT's divs

    by ethison Jan 30, 2015 9:19 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger 20 hours ago Flag

    Because irrational people don't just invest irrationally, but react negatively to people who act rationally. This has been happening for a long time.

  • Reply to

    "Slave Labor"

    by khyrtfdsc Jan 30, 2015 4:00 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    LOL. Save your crocodile tears for someone who needs or cares.

    Good news. 99% of last years RAS dividend was tax free. High yield. Tax free. What a deal.

  • Reply to

    Still looking out towards 1Q

    by davisfoulger Jan 8, 2015 12:47 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    Well, it wasn't this week (no surprise, I guess), but a lot of us collected dividends today ... and 4.3 million shares collected "in lieu of" dividend payments as well. I'll take the money and patiently wait for more.

  • Reply to

    Foulger's canary

    by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Keep trying. K1. This personal attack stuff is never going take you anywhere useful. And I do have a genuine claim on the title "eagle".

  • Reply to

    "Slave Labor"

    by khyrtfdsc Jan 30, 2015 4:00 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    You appear to be back in the "creepy" zone. Your business, but this is the RAS board rather than the "Davis Foulger" board. My lead letter is an indication of nothing more than the fact that I have the respect of many of peers in an academic field. The reference to "slave labor" reflects language that full time faculty often use in referring to contingent faculty.

    Once again, however, this has no relationship to the subject matter of this board. An honorable person would never have posted it.

  • Reply to

    IRT's divs

    by ethison Jan 30, 2015 9:19 AM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    RAS numbers are out as well. About 98% Return of Capital with the rest divided between ordinary dividends and qualified dividends. The qualified dividends are something of a surprise, but given that they are taxed at capital gains rates, hardly a surprising one,

  • Reply to

    Tax Treatment of Dividends

    by stonergreg13 Jan 29, 2015 7:04 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    The preferreds were less than 100% ROC last year. I indicated, back in January of last year that the common would "be less than 100% ROC no later than 2015." The implication was that ROC on the preferreds would go to zero no later than 2015 and strongly suggested that it would happen in 2014 is subsequent posts, so I'm not surprised that it happened this year.

    That said, the preferreds are roughly 12% qualified dividends which are taxed at capital gains rates rather than as ordinary income, so preferred holders are still getting some tax benefit.

  • Reply to

    Tax Treatment of Dividends

    by stonergreg13 Jan 29, 2015 7:04 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    It is a sensible prioritization which they telegraphed a year ago when ROC dropped on the preferreds but stayed at 100% on the common.

  • Reply to

    Foulger's canary

    by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    LOL, khyrt? I have a pretty good idea of what pages you are badly misinterpreting, but they really has nothing to do with RAS or this board. I am not a member of any "minority", at least as they are currently defined (I'm pretty much a well educated and affluent male WASP). I am not persecuted by anyone (except perhaps some wackos on a Yahoo stock market board). I'm certainly not discriminated against. You have a history of reading things the way an Ostrich (or mugoo) might ... with your head stuck firmly in the ground.

    All best, but you aren't going to make money from RAS (long or short), by making off-topic allusions about me.

  • Reply to

    Home Ownership at a 20 year low

    by ethison Jan 29, 2015 4:06 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    My son lived pretty close to there until recently (they move 5 months ago). I wondered what would happen to the space after Borders folded.

  • Reply to

    " Android is stealing share from iPhone."

    by khyrtfdsc Jan 30, 2015 1:33 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    It's the smartphone market, so there are always new competitors, but Google Android powers over 80% of smartphones worldwide.

    I'd still call that "stealing share".

  • Reply to

    Home Ownership at a 20 year low

    by ethison Jan 29, 2015 4:06 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    There are lot's of ways to reconfigure a space. I can readily think of a facility just west of Boston with indoor parking that lost its bookstore anchor and most of its other tenants that would be perfect for that conversion.

  • Reply to

    Foulger's canary

    by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 30, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    Since this has been pushed on a bit, I thought I'd put an appropriate bird label on our board naysayers: Canadian Geese. They squawk loudly without saying anything meaningful, fly in formation, imagine themselves great American Patriots even as the poop all over our most cherished rights and institutions, leave a big mess everywhere they go, and are easy prey for Eagles because they generally don't know very much.

  • Reply to

    Home Ownership at a 20 year low

    by ethison Jan 29, 2015 4:06 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 29, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Malls are picking up again, but poor performers are always good candidates for full or partical conversion into multifamily.

  • Reply to

    Foulger's canary

    by ki1gore_trout Jan 29, 2015 2:15 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 29, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Honestly, K1, if you want to do bird comparison, I'm more like an eagle that swoops in for the kill when shorts try to fly too high. Goodness knows I keep eating your lunch.

    But in the end you've only written more fiction.

  • Reply to

    Home Ownership at a 20 year low

    by ethison Jan 29, 2015 4:06 PM
    davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 29, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    New capacity is no where close to matching incraease in demand. This trend is likely to last a while.

    Of course we knew all this 5 years ago.

  • davisfoulger davisfoulger Jan 29, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    I expect that, to the extent RAS raises more money, it will go with the lowest cost of funds. That probably won't be a common stock offering while RAS' yield is above 8%.

RAS
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