Down 25% today on high volume. 450K vs the daily avg. of 150k shares. Today being the start of the 4th Q if any tutes sold they don't have to report till Jan. The Melanoma expanded trial might be our next shot at promising data. Not a happy camper here, but I believe EP/IL12 still has a serious chance of success.
Justice on the Adxs board. [old post]
Beginning with David Mauro’s defection from Merck in October, 2014, we’ve seen an accelerated defection of high level executives into key roles pointing to impending commercialization of product.
1) David Mauro (Merck) - Oct 2014 - CMO
2) Mayo Pujols (Merck UK) - Feb 2015 - VP manufacturing
3) Thomas Hare (Incyte) - May 2015 - VP clinical ops
4) Fred Frullo (Onconova) - May 2015 - VP regulatory affairs
In the recent update CC, our CEO also described how they are now getting high volume of incoming inquiries by execs wanting to defect to ADXS.
The most significant defection to me is David Mauro’s. At Merck, he held a key role leading the group that evaluated combination PD1 regimens. In a TheStreet interview he states that Merck was initially uninterested in vaccines. However, LmLLO’s demonstrated ability to affect the TME (tumor micro-environment) caught their attention. Merck spent 5-6 months pressure testing LmLLO before agreeing to collaborate on a clinical trial combining Keytruda+LmLLO. Significantly, PD1 has not shown prior efficacy in Prostate cancer, so Merck must have seen compelling enough evidence that LmLLO could affect the TME, thus potentially making a significant difference. Mauro states “it was an opportunity to take Keytruda into a tumor where it has not worked well in the past”. In the interview, Mauro also stated initial results might be ready at end of 2015 or early 2016.
The cluster of defections in Feb-May of this year for VPs of manufacturing, clinical ops and regulatory affairs, all point to impending commercialization. Likely first to support Aratana (canine osteosarcoma) & Biocon (India Cervical). But perhaps also an indicator of how fast things are moving in this hot I/O sector, and that efficacy, combined with low toxicity, may afford accelerated approval of any one of our 4 orphan indications in the US, or more important to me - the PD1+LmLLO combination (perhaps now leap-frogged by the direct-to-phase2 IDO+LmLLO trial).
I've kept close watch on Adxs all year. Almost sold Oncs in Mar to buy Adxs at $12. Then I watched as it ran to $30 Lol. Looking at the 1yr return, Adxs 200% , Oncs -40% ....could call this 'a tale of two cities'
Cash , $100 million - - - Oncs 25 million
Employees 20 - - - - - - - Oncs 40
Adxs with 98 institutional owners. Oncs with 10.
Adxs 64% tutes, Oncs 6%.
Ending the 2nd Q,,,, 42 new institutions bought and 70 increased positions. Obviously the big money likes their chances with this vaccine company. (ps- there has yet to be an approved cancer vaccine) Even with the IO numbers, adxs is still high risk .
At $10 a share the percentage upside to share price is very real. I call 100% by year end, $20.
" hey rbruff .. good to hear from you. Our Trvn is going to be fine. You own* 1k @ $5.85" - 8/10/15
I didn't want to buy on margin [trial results are never absolute] but we definitely missed out on Trvn, a smooth 100% upside after ph II results. 100% within one month, a record I'll never break.
The point ? At first read I was disappointed .......after sleeping on it, it's 'ok'. Full of words like 'can', 'potential' [possibility], 'hypothesis' [belief] -
We've got plenty of time to figure this out. Remember, it's what the company doesn't tell you that's as important as reported data. Was there an increase in til's ? .. .. . . . . .
The point ? Definitions for the board to read (PR, SD) ....we also went up against a "highly aggressive" cancer and I have no doubt the patients were nearing the e .. . . . . : (
"If MCC study confirms raising TIL’s, then MCC study confirms every other logical consequence of thpresence of CD8+ T cells, which seems to correlate with improved prognosis and long-term survival in malignancies, such as melanoma."
Presently we're down 20% on higher than average volume, contributing to the sell down is no mention of an increase in TIL's. The TIL increase is our calling card. This is why we are in. Is there clinical data to support Oncs science or are we holding only pre-clinical data ? Several months ago I thought I had read of CD8+ t cell production in patients who had received EP/IL12 . Tia.
guti, thanks for staying logical and not getting caught up in emotional replies ("everyone should put this guy on ignore") Lol
I know I read of the CD8 response ...and other data that bode well for success. More tomorrow.
"Immune correlative data SUGGEST that ImmunoPulse™ IL-12 CAN increase tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and MAY promote a tumor-specific CD8+ T-cell response" - no definitive results.
4 cycles of IL/12 (cohort B), one patient of 12 showed stable disease. This is why we need Keytruda.
Immune correlative data PROVE that ImmunoPulse™ IL-12 WILL increase tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and --- PROMOTES a tumor-specific CD8+ T-cell response. The results are in and this is what cannot be said.
" . . .our findings support the HYPOTHESIS that intratumoral IL-12 DNA with electroporation promotes tumor immunogenicity. The results confirm the POTENTIAL of this approach to make a clinically meaningful impact on patient outcomes for this virus-associated cancer."
Words such as hypothesis and potential are of no material value. (Go ahead, cuss me out) Don't care.
Combo results are Oncs only chance for market cap increase.
- MCC data this weekend, 3rd Q closes on Wed - Checking the nasdaq site shows SIX PERCENT of shares owned by tutes. As of today this is a huge vote of no confidence by institutional investors. I'm hoping the final mcc results will change that. As a biased owner of shares, I can't see why the tutes are not interested. Is it the process of electroporation that keeps them on the sidelines ? I don't have the answer.
LBIO shows 75% , 48 new positions ending the second Q. Their 'process' is complicated and expensive.
TRVN at 57% - - before the efficacy data of last week, resulting in a 100% increase in share price.
INO which closed the day with a lower per share price than Oncs has 32% IO.
Institutions don't always get it right....... . ... . I guess we're here for the combo results, with or without the big money. Glta
After reading the MCC abstract/data ..' EP-IL/12 leads to regression of . . .non injected tumors.'... . . Dr. Meininger joining Oncs .,, confirmation of success (?)...possibly...or probably....hmm . .glta.
Trvn, today's close is the 100% upside update. This reminds me of a song by the band Ministry (1989), titled SO WHAT ! They played loud music, stop, scream SO WHAT !! and get back to music. - Oncs #1.
guti - U of South Florida news with/ patent is nice, but....we also have two companies competing (engineering) for a new 'go anywhere device - The competition has increased to three ? Thnks.
Ino was a buy several yrs ago at .50 - their run is over. Punit has plans. EP-IL12 combo approval in about two yrs. Round numbers, Oncs $6 Ino $7 - update June/Asco .
All Oncs trials are open label, which 'should' lessen the price volatility found in double blind trials.
Ttph down 80% , Akba up 70% on after market news/results. Did he say "frequent updates". . . .
"In the case of Merck's drug, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) said in final draft guidance that it should made available for certain patients with advanced melanoma."
In due time . . . . . .Combination of Keytruda/EP-IL-12 .. . . . .WORLDWIDE.
Enjoy your holiday/birthday on Mon. Thanks for the kind words last week, much appreciated. - I like our chances with Oncosec . .. . there is a serious unrealized upside potential here. Long and holding. GL.
Intraday high $10.29 , 70%+
"The science of Trvn, I read up this past weekend. Earlier P values stat sig. Results of their Ph IIb this quarter. This company is undervalued and a stat sig result will change that. Significantly." 8/4
"A line in the sand. Holding. Two possible outcomes, 1) bankrupt 2) own the bank. GL" 8/25 .
The political thread, plenty of good comments .'cept the first one - Lol (c'mon flight, laugh a little : )
rbruf, I looked at my buys and sells going back 5 yrs or so. Time for a new plan. Cldx at $3.95, sold around $6...hit $40 last year(?) Acad 5k #$%$ $2.50,,, hit endpoints, sold at $8..eventually ran to $50 (a cool quarter mill, whoops) there are others. A line in the sand. Holding.
Two possible outcomes, 1) bankrupt 2) own the bank. GL