bmapes, what you're smelling is your upper lip. as for why they would do another offering, why don't you start by doing a little bit of critical thinking.
my guess is they will do another offering in 2014. wouldn't surprise me if the company is already shopping around for a deal and this is why "they" are keeping a lid on the price. my hope is thld will wait for the sts interim results since this will tell wall street that the company is confident of getting positive results and will potentially allow the stock to run up into the data release.
A US person who beneficially owns ADSs (as determined for US federal income tax purposes) and who
elects to receive additional ADSs instead of cash will be treated as receiving a distribution and therefore subject to US federal income tax consequences similar to those of a US person who receives a cash dividend, but the amounts of the distributions will be different for US federal income tax purposes. Such a US ADS holder will be treated as receiving a distribution in an amount equal to the fair market value of the shares underlying the ADSs received, determined as of the date of their distribution. For US federal
income tax purposes, such a US ADS holder will have a basis in its additional ADSs equal to the fair market value described above and a holding period for such ADSs that begins on the day following the date of the distribution.
look at the poster (TH-302 Maintenance Following TH-302 Plus Doxorubicin Induction: The Results pf a Phase 2 Study of TH-302 in Combination with Doxorubicin in Soft Tissue Sarcoma), at the company's website, for the phase 3 trial design if you want to more detail.
the trail design was designed assuming an HR of 0.75. however, if the true benefit is anything like what we saw in the phase 2 trial and if the control is either 12 (as assumed in the design) or less (as historically expected) than the true HR would easily be around 0.6 and could possibly be even near 0.5. So, if the HR comes in at around 0.6 or lower, the interim would be easily powered over 80% to see a significant result.
of course, there's a risk in reading too much into small single arm results, but considering the strength and consistency of all the th-302 data to date, i think the HR for STS is smaller than 0.75; so our chance of getting positive interim results should be pretty good.
smith, if you look at the single agent studies of th-302, you will see they were able to dose up to 670. only when th-302 is dose in combination with other chemo do we see DLT creeping up at smaller doses.
special ed tim, according to the SEC, vested options and warrants count towards "beneficial ownership".
hmmm... who's word should we believe? a regulating body or a nobody lying fool?
special ed tim is throwing a tantrum and grasping at straws b/c he's once again shown to be a liar and a fool. timmy boy just can't help being special in his own mind.
no problem beach. just to clarify, the numbers i listed includes options and warrants and not just shares. but for purpose of gauging how much interests management has in the company, options and warrant are just as important as owning shares.
special ed tim, only idiots lie about something that can easily be looked up.
e.g. it's easy to look up how many shares thld officers own so when you make such a obvious lie like officers only own "$2-3 million in stock", you should expect to be called on it and be made a fool.
looking at the sec Def 14A filing on April 3 2013, we see that: the ceo (barry selick) owns 1,505,684 shares, the inventor of th-302 (Mark D. Matteucci) owns 1,157,276 shares, and the Clinical Operations and Biostatistics designer (Stewart M. Kroll) owns 238,399 shares. considering only these three officers and assuming a share price of $4.50, we see they have $13,056,115 invested in thld.
special ed tim, once again, you show yourself to be not only a liar but an idiot.
"Confounding crossover and failed EU STS trial" were gifts from an irrational market to those who actually took the time to dig into the data.
the market believes th-302 does not provide significant survival benefits to pancreatic patients and ignored the impact of those who crossed over. the market also seem to have ignored the better than expected survival of the control arm when compared to historical data. the two year survival of the th-302 control arm was about 11% where as the expected 2 year survival should have been between 4-6%. in fact, the 2 year survival for ABRAXANE arm was 9% and it's control arm was 4%. However, note that the ABRAXANE trail had enrolled slightly more sick patients. Still, the population of the two trials were pretty similar so why did the control arm for th-302 live so much longer than the control arm for the ABRAXANE trial? The company has good reason to believe the crossover had improved the survival of the control arm. The question is how much did the crossover help? my guess is without crossover, the hr would have came in at around 0.7. My bet is we will see a hr of about 0.7 from the pivotal pancreatic trial.
the data from the EORTC 62012 trial was a gift. the market chose to focus on the fact that the trial failed. instead, they should have focus on the data from the control arm with 12 months. the population of this trial was likely a little healthier than those in the th-302 phase 2 trail in STS. So, this only adds more cred to the survival benefit seen in the th-302 trial of 21 months. in fact, if you compare the survival curve for the th-302 trail with the control arm in the EORTC trial, you'll see that as time when on, the survival benefit btw this two curves increased. if this trend is repeated in the pivotal th-302 sts trial, there's a very good chance the interim will be successful.
so, obviously the market is moving contrary to my DD. when i see this, i always bet against the market.
the new indication for the next registrational trial will NOT be in glioblastoma. thld has said that the next indication will be larger than either pancreatic or sarcoma and glioblastoma does not fit this criteria.
special ed tim, it's not about taking risk but about taking advantage of opportunities. you may attribute thld as being high risk (and the market is pricing it as such) but my DD tells me otherwise. better to follow your DD than live with regret.
as for my approach, there's nothing interesting about it, it's just common sense. to create wealth, concentrate on activities that will provide you with the best return with the least risk; to preserve wealth, diversify.
i agree with you beach; cmore is small time. opinions from ppl like him without conviction amounts to nothing. words are cheap; what matters is your action. a third of my portfolio is in this stock so you better believe i've done my DD and continue to do so on a daily basis. unlike the bashers here, who are just talk, my action speaks for itself.
as of jun 2013, 338 had been enrolled in the th-302 STS trial. since then, the trial, on average, has enrolled at a rate of about 59 patients per month. if current enrollment stays like this, the trial should be done enrolling this december.
special ed tim, you're an idiot for placing so much weight on what institutions and "professional" investors think.
of all the biotech that have made me any significant amount of money, the institutions only piled on after the fact. while i was building my positions, the smart money was selling. people don't fall for special ed tim's idiotic reasoning. he's special for a reason.