smith, if you look at the single agent studies of th-302, you will see they were able to dose up to 670. only when th-302 is dose in combination with other chemo do we see DLT creeping up at smaller doses.
special ed tim, according to the SEC, vested options and warrants count towards "beneficial ownership".
hmmm... who's word should we believe? a regulating body or a nobody lying fool?
special ed tim is throwing a tantrum and grasping at straws b/c he's once again shown to be a liar and a fool. timmy boy just can't help being special in his own mind.
no problem beach. just to clarify, the numbers i listed includes options and warrants and not just shares. but for purpose of gauging how much interests management has in the company, options and warrant are just as important as owning shares.
special ed tim, only idiots lie about something that can easily be looked up.
e.g. it's easy to look up how many shares thld officers own so when you make such a obvious lie like officers only own "$2-3 million in stock", you should expect to be called on it and be made a fool.
looking at the sec Def 14A filing on April 3 2013, we see that: the ceo (barry selick) owns 1,505,684 shares, the inventor of th-302 (Mark D. Matteucci) owns 1,157,276 shares, and the Clinical Operations and Biostatistics designer (Stewart M. Kroll) owns 238,399 shares. considering only these three officers and assuming a share price of $4.50, we see they have $13,056,115 invested in thld.
special ed tim, once again, you show yourself to be not only a liar but an idiot.
"Confounding crossover and failed EU STS trial" were gifts from an irrational market to those who actually took the time to dig into the data.
the market believes th-302 does not provide significant survival benefits to pancreatic patients and ignored the impact of those who crossed over. the market also seem to have ignored the better than expected survival of the control arm when compared to historical data. the two year survival of the th-302 control arm was about 11% where as the expected 2 year survival should have been between 4-6%. in fact, the 2 year survival for ABRAXANE arm was 9% and it's control arm was 4%. However, note that the ABRAXANE trail had enrolled slightly more sick patients. Still, the population of the two trials were pretty similar so why did the control arm for th-302 live so much longer than the control arm for the ABRAXANE trial? The company has good reason to believe the crossover had improved the survival of the control arm. The question is how much did the crossover help? my guess is without crossover, the hr would have came in at around 0.7. My bet is we will see a hr of about 0.7 from the pivotal pancreatic trial.
the data from the EORTC 62012 trial was a gift. the market chose to focus on the fact that the trial failed. instead, they should have focus on the data from the control arm with 12 months. the population of this trial was likely a little healthier than those in the th-302 phase 2 trail in STS. So, this only adds more cred to the survival benefit seen in the th-302 trial of 21 months. in fact, if you compare the survival curve for the th-302 trail with the control arm in the EORTC trial, you'll see that as time when on, the survival benefit btw this two curves increased. if this trend is repeated in the pivotal th-302 sts trial, there's a very good chance the interim will be successful.
so, obviously the market is moving contrary to my DD. when i see this, i always bet against the market.
the new indication for the next registrational trial will NOT be in glioblastoma. thld has said that the next indication will be larger than either pancreatic or sarcoma and glioblastoma does not fit this criteria.
special ed tim, it's not about taking risk but about taking advantage of opportunities. you may attribute thld as being high risk (and the market is pricing it as such) but my DD tells me otherwise. better to follow your DD than live with regret.
as for my approach, there's nothing interesting about it, it's just common sense. to create wealth, concentrate on activities that will provide you with the best return with the least risk; to preserve wealth, diversify.
i agree with you beach; cmore is small time. opinions from ppl like him without conviction amounts to nothing. words are cheap; what matters is your action. a third of my portfolio is in this stock so you better believe i've done my DD and continue to do so on a daily basis. unlike the bashers here, who are just talk, my action speaks for itself.
as of jun 2013, 338 had been enrolled in the th-302 STS trial. since then, the trial, on average, has enrolled at a rate of about 59 patients per month. if current enrollment stays like this, the trial should be done enrolling this december.
special ed tim, you're an idiot for placing so much weight on what institutions and "professional" investors think.
of all the biotech that have made me any significant amount of money, the institutions only piled on after the fact. while i was building my positions, the smart money was selling. people don't fall for special ed tim's idiotic reasoning. he's special for a reason.
beach, tim is not an idiot, he's just special.
regardless of what special ed tim says, institutions are not the smart money; they usually only pile in after the fact and almost always over pay.
from my experience, i would prefer it if thld had no institutional ownership at this stage of the development. this way, there would be more "smart money" to fuel the run up should the th-302 pivitol trials be successful.
special ed tim, it's not about when a company became public but when it started. thld was founded in 2001 and celg in 1986. also, celg was not a pure startup since it was spun off from Celanese Corporation. so, yes, celg has been around much longer than thld.
if you were as knowledgeable about biotech as you claim, you should know that it can easily take over a decade to go from startup to having a drug on the market. so there's nothing slow about the pace thld is on with getting is first drug on the market should th-302 be successful.
you never surprise with your ability to show us how special you are. keep up the good work special ed tim.
blame this on the SEC for allowing MM to exists. there will never be a real market as long as we have MMs.
special ed tim, is it to hard for you to comprehend what you read? i said, those are the metrics that matters when looking at companies LIKE thld -- not p&l. but then again, of course you wouldn't understand since you're special.
are you looking at the right ticker? thld is getting taken down with the market. crooks will continue their games until approval is seen as inevitable.
but i agree these take downs on drip volume is a joke. if the data is good for the phase 3 trials, we'll be shooting pass 30.
special ed tim, how many times do you have to be told that p&l analysis is useless for companies like thld. for companies like thld, it's all about clinical data, odds of approval, market potential, pipeline, cash and debt, and burn rate.
take your walmart investing how-to somewhere else.