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Schwab US Large-Cap ETF Message Board

db333p 11 posts  |  Last Activity: May 23, 2016 11:47 AM Member since: Mar 12, 2005
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  • Anything past 2016 is pure guesswork imo. No one has a crystal ball on where oil prices will be then, or how stable they will be. Hence, how relevant is the Yahoo 2017 $4.52/sh estimate? What oil price is it based on?
    If oil prices stay sub-$50/bbl thru 2017, how would CVX make much more then the $1.18 number that is estimated for 2016? And- with such negative cash flow, how can they not afford to look at cutting the dividend?

  • Reply to

    The NE Truth

    by doktorpink May 18, 2016 1:07 PM
    db333p db333p May 23, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    You become foolish when you think "there is no way to lose". There are always ways to lose an investment, oftne times by circumstances entirely unforeseen. I too believe there is value in NE long term- but if oil prices stay near the +/- $50/bbl for over two years, long term debt becomes a problem.

  • Reply to

    Sold ATW

    by canvas888 May 6, 2016 10:20 AM
    db333p db333p May 6, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    I applaud your move. Look at the contract drilling revenue this quarter compared to last few quarters. And the number of contracts expiring in 2016 and early 2017. There will be a more chances to buy the drillers nearer the bottom of their 52-week averages in the next 6 months.

  • db333p db333p May 3, 2016 3:35 PM Flag

    Saying 166 is the bottom may be true, but it could also be wishful thinking. In any general market downturn, MMM will follow the market down with most other stocks. As for buybacks- I do not like them, stats in this century show most companies with large buybacks do not buy low, but often at or above the median stock price over time. I would rather a mega-cap like MMM, with stable cash flows, increase the dividend at a higher rate. That yield can keep a lid on price declines, and I would rather have the $ in my hand thru dividends to do as I will with the cash. I can buy more MMM at my discretion.

  • AAPL is no longer a pure growth story. That boat sailed years ago. The company is way to large to turn on a dime, to increase sales exponentially. So why doesn't AAPL management treat it this way? Look at a McDonalds, an Intel. They have steady revenue streams and cash flow like AAPL, and have grown their dividend accordingly over the last few years. AAPL has at least instituted and increased their dividend of late- but they need to keep the pedal to the ground. Current dividend is $2.28/sh, projected EPS $9.400 that's only a 24% payout ratio, but only a 2.4% yield at $95/sh. How about an immediate increase to $3/sh, and continue to grow it as possible? That is still only a 32% payout, but a 3.2% yld at $95/sh.

  • Reply to

    FTR Started a new long position in RIG today.

    by jennyride42 Apr 25, 2016 3:04 PM
    db333p db333p Apr 26, 2016 9:26 AM Flag

    And just how is this lower debt and less outstanding shares going to occur with the continued decreasing cash flow? Depreciation and write offs are not a long term answer. These assets you scrap or write off were once helping cash flow and revenue- now they are gone.

  • Reply to

    looks like a bottom

    by mktiscrazy Apr 20, 2016 4:28 PM
    db333p db333p Apr 20, 2016 10:37 PM Flag

    lol the people in this thread need to get a clue. You should be playing red or black at roulette in Vegas,
    not speculating in a 3X gold ETF. "I think", "I was sure"...

  • Reply to

    Possible acquisition

    by tslabullseye Apr 14, 2016 11:12 AM
    db333p db333p Apr 14, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    They are the two biggest players in storage- anti-trust issues make this a no-go from the start,

  • Reply to

    Bond tender offer

    by db333p Mar 3, 2016 2:19 PM
    db333p db333p Apr 6, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    Bump for justice. The amount of bonds tendered so far is well below 50% of the outstanding issues. After peaking above $13 per share the price has steadily eroded over the last month to around $10/share.

  • Reply to

    NOW. A $24.00 Dollar Stock.

    by sempertruth Mar 21, 2016 4:42 PM
    db333p db333p Mar 24, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    Lol you be truthful. NOW it is a $10-11 stock. Future price could be $24, but not NOW. What is
    your time horizon to hit $24? I think we have a minimum of 6 months muddling around the bottom
    end of the trading range.

  • I have sold at a small profit into this huge rally. I am not understanding the euphoria. It is a tender offer only. Let's see how many bondholders will redeem at these prices. Doesn't do squat for the anemic outlook on
    rig utilization and day rates. I can't see this settling above $10 a share in the near term.

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