I'm not complianing. Not as heavy in the stock as before but think it's a safe hold for now.
If it falls back much more I'll add shares, and still think it's worth something in the $5s.
Still expecting 1600 to be the neckline for a double top or even a H&S pattern. Jobs data continues to look stable if not impressive, but then what else is new?
Even the big move in the 10yr seems played out, although likely the top is in on the bond market. Sell those bond funds immediately...as in last month.
Any meaningful break to something like 1595 would bring on more downside but could just be a trap for the bears. Major market tops are a process, of retesting those tops. It is those failed rallies that enable meaningful downside and we need at least one more failed rally before this swoon gets underway, imo.
This is to give the NSA more salacious Facebook content to sift through, as teens all across Amerika see if the thing works, then immediately post about how much sex they are having.
Duplexers can also be defined as people who live in residences which share a common wall.
The saimese twins of apartments.
The housing market has been driven to frothy proportions due to Bernanke and his merry bubble-makers, so maybe RMF'D is getting into the Buy-To-Rent craze?
May even be the set up for a H&S pattern, with the top at 1750.
Maybe I'm overthinking this, but would note that the 10yr treasury has hit the expected 2.2% mark, the top of the recent range and a very sharp move from the lows.
In other words, bonds may be ready to mean-reversion rally, heaven knows why but the move to 2.2% has been a high beta event and that is not sustainable, imo.
That bond rally would help stocks run as well. As always, never short a continuation pattern. Sometimes cash is just fine.
Still like NOK and INTC appears to be setting up for a run to 26.
Bernanke can taper if he want to, or not. It doesn't matter any more.
The Fed has lost control of the long bond. Could result in a crash and watch stocks when the 10yr gets over 2.5% yield, as that is likely to cause price pressure on stocks.
Think of all the misallocation of capital which has occured, due to the search for yield.
this could get ugly
I think another test of the top is coming and that is typical of all major market tops.
But the same economic growth will crater bonds so I like TMV even as I trade long in various stocks.
The time will come for TZA but right now the small caps are acting like it is the beginning of a big bull market. Lots of strength in the Russell 2000.
Fed's Bernanke: QE4Eva
Might even spark a stock rally, at first, but if the jobs market shows any real signs of an increase in the rate of improvement, we'll see the 10yr bond yield move sharply.
2.5% is considered the point which would start to affect stocks, so something to watch for.
I eased off my TZA position yesterday, as the Russell is actually showing strength against the S&P. Looks like investors are reaching out for more risk and that smaller cap stocks could lead the next rally.
But I continnue to hold TMV...
Looked at it some more and 1604 is likely a rally point, to either the established resistance line or to a double top.
Eased off TZA but still have TMV. If Friday's jobs report is solid then we'll see 10yr yields really start to get away from the Fed. They can only control the long bond if the market is agreeable.
That's also true of the short Treasuries, their normal tool of choice, but it is easier to affect those than the longer term bonds.
Fact is that these are abnormal yields and that won't persist.
I think 1600 is merely the pivot and expect to see 1550 as the bounce.
Time to stop overthinking the situation. QE is clearly in taper mode, and did most decidedly NOT pump the economy.
So that has left us with a market driven to excess and the same flat economy we've had for years.
Hey, at least we aren't Japan! Sure looks like a sovereign debt collapse in progress, the Mother of Black Swan events.
How will Bernanke paper that one over? With more debt?
Watch intc as it appears to have bottomed over the past few months and is poised to eat the competition alive. A retest to $22 would be plenty.
Could be set for a multiyear run.
It works better with May, but is still quite serviceable.
labor costs which plunged -4.3% on expectations of a +0.5% increase driven by a 3.8% collapse in hourly compensation that was the stunner
This was the biggest labor cost drop in four years and the biggest collapse in hourly compensation in well...ever
It's the first non-green Tuesday since January. Virtually all of the gains have occured on the last 20 Tuesdays, as that is when the Fed was pumping POMO liquidity.
Now? Not so much..
this could get ugly
I also continue to like intc and they are getting some strength based on design wins for upcoming chip rollout.
As with NOK, maybe a steep market decline causes some meaningful retest, but don't bet on it. intc could retest 24 but that chart previously broke out from an ascending triangle and continues to look bullish, so that's the primary trend.
as always the trend is your friend
"The next major theme is stagflation — this will be the legacy of the Bernanke regime.
You cannot keep real short-term rates negative for this long in the face of even modestly positive real economic growth without generating financial excesses today and inflationary pressures in the future.
Imagine dusting off the Phillips Curve and getting away with it — it's as if the Fed has changed religions as it now believes there is some trade-off between inflation and unemployment
The last time we had negative real policy rates for this long with a central bank wedded to the Phillips Curve was under the Burns-led Fed of the early 1970s.
With the EU starting to bottom out, I like NOK as a long term hold from here.
I suspect that a lot of their weakness has been to the cratered economies in their core markets, and that the latest Lumia's are going to prove to be real winners.
Yet come Fed POMO Tuesday, the market will rally.
All the gains since January have come on Tuesday and traders won't let that one go so easily.