Avis and rental was not even mentioned. This should have been a big AvRamp year with low fuel prices. Letting this lay dormant was a mistake
IF revenue gets to $100M, this is a $30 stock. $25M in profits or $$2/sh, PE of 15
So essentially a doubling of revenue would lead to a 8X in share price. Buying here is like buying a long dated option
after listening to CC and just now reading the transcript, here are some key notes:
- company has doubled down on Norm. Norm is now in charge of Engineering. Was formerly Mike Ehrman. Looks like a demotion for Mike. Possibly Mike let the VAC4 issues get by him. Now Mike reports to Norm
- Toyota had 100 VMS units in Q3. That is $250,000 over 5 years if using the new SaaS model. Will have a "few hundred units in Q4". After market Toyota sales don't start until this month, so that should add as well. Have over 1000 units out for bid in their portal.
- Raymond had only $550,000 in sales due to issues with the VAC4 which are now resolved. Will grow sequentialy their orders this quarter. So the TotalTrax argument was total BS. It was simply issues with the VAC4
- GM finished 1 year pilot of VMS and will roll out thousands of units over the next few years
- Ken, Norm, and Mark Stanton?(VP sales guy) have divided up the top 50 customers and are going directly after them with help of BOD to talk to folks in the C-Suite rather than some shmoe at each warehouse.
- SG&A ($5M) and R&D ($1.1M) expenses will be flat this quarter.
- Fired implementor MME
- gave great detail on CAMP relationship with Toyota. CAMP product is really 2nd rate. Not sure why they bothered with a product like that. Why couldn't IDSY license DiDBox product to them? CAMP is a supplier of parts to IDSY
- gave guidance of up to $11.5M (break even) revenue in Q4 and profitability in 2016
- won 1500 unit TAMs contract which was previously with a competitor
- AvRamp has been dormant. Wonder if Larry T just sleeps at his desk all day
It's little things like that which give me pause. They said a while back the Toyota add on market would start July 1. They just said on this CC it started Nov 1. It's only 4 months, but why can't they get stuff like this right?
seriously, are you mentally disturbed? Recurring revenue went UP to a record, not down. The 10K TAMs units will add to recurring revenue. They just landed GM which has potential to be a 10% VMS customer for years to come.
top registry set is to graded coins as graded coins are to raw coins
the sets are more liquid. As there are pictures and detailed descriptions of the coins, they are known throughout the world
same as people in Fantasy Football leagues. Bragging rights and competitiveness
top sets are easily sold. Incomplete sets will notify you when the missing item is found or will notify you if a better item comes in anywhere it is sold on the internet
top sets are written about in trade journals and some even get awards and cash prizes
exactly. Same #$%$&P, Moody's, Fitch, AM Best.
Company also keeps track of historical sale and pricing information. they also have population reports of years, mint marks, and coins graded at each grade. Dealers and collectors pay for that information. 15%-20% of income is derived from selling of information
The also have a dealer network where dealers pay a monthly fee to be able to buy/sell coins to other dealers on this network. Kind of like a stock exchange for dealers. Maybe 5% of revenue
they also have a 3X year Expo at Long Beach. They get celebrities to come in and sign autographs which they then authenticate. Maybe 5% of revenue as well.
They also licence their "PCGS" name to a currency company that authenticates paper money. About $100K+ in revenue/yr just for the license.
do some research
- when graded by CLCT PCGS or PSA, it is guaranteed authentic. The grade is guaranteed to be no worse than the grade on the holder. The company will pay you the difference in grade if for some reason you send it back to them in the holder and they re-grade it lower.
- as the most prestigous grading company, their grade is more valuable then their competitors. They are considered "the experts". PCGS has 50% market share, PSA 95%.
- with a card, the guarantee also covers trimming and alterations.
- with coin, the guarantee covers foreign substances, artificial coloring, and tooling
- because of the grade and the fact they have a unique picture of the item, insurance companies will give you a break on the cost of insurance. If stolen and then sent in for regrading, even out of the slab, because of the unique picture, your item can be recovered.
- the item is more liquid and can be sold sight unseen on dealer networks.
- walk into any show or dealer store with a graded item and you can walk out with cash. I have.
- when graded and a picture taken, your card/coin can be entered into online "sets". Collectors vie for the best set. The best set can be worth multiples over a slightly lessor set. It is highly competitive.
A raw Mantle card might go for a few thousand. A graded one upwards of $340,000. Certanly worth the $50 fee
if your brain was in a jar, would you still be stupid?
Yes Frank, it does make it more valuable. Are you going to buy a $340,000 Mantle Rookie card raw?