funny just last year these P&D's were talking BILLION dollar valuation. Now they talk maybe $100M. The stock is fairly valued because without desperation financing, the company goes BK in 3 months.
not a good sign. Still have revenue for Q2 too high, almost $12.5M. Can't see how they get there. This quarter is half over and they didn't say anything that would get us that high.
This new VMS SaaS model is not working out. Fire Norm before his shares vest
Jagid got a failing grade as CEO. Ehrman a D-.
Lots of FUD and outright lies on this board. So what is the company worth? Let's do a bottom up assessment.
They have $10M in debt which would need to be paid off. Anyone buying the company would probably need to spend $20M just to take their testing to completion. So that's $30M off the top
They have patents. tons of patents. Not a single licensed patent. No patent revenue. Obviously, the patents might be worth something. Potentially a lot. It would take them another $5M just to get someone to value all their patents, search who is in violation and start legal proceedings. The market is large and licenses could be large as well. Violators would fight them vigorously and legal fights could take years and another $10M. If $1B of PGMs is used every year and their products reduce usage by 80%, potential savings are huge. Royalties are typically 3% - 5%, so $30M-$50M/year
The rest of the company is worthless. dozens and dozens of companies sell filters and such. The only value is potentially a patent license of $30M-$50M/year.
Companies are sold on based on sales multiples. So figure 1X which is somewhat generous as they don't really have any patent sales, just potential. so a sale of $30M-$50M. Offset that from the $30M off the top to pay off debt and finish testing. You get a value of $ZERO - $20M. The company is worth $30M now.
I'm saying the company is fairly valued now. Hence, the constant need to raise funds and a GOING CONCERN
from $2130K to $942K sequentially. Now didn't ole billy boy say it was a good thing when prepaids went up?
Liabilities (AP, short term debt, etc) up almost $1M sequentially
Stockholders equity down almost $5M sequentially
shelf registration limits yearly dilution to 1/3 of outstanding shares, so they can sell no more than 5M shares. At current share price, $10M does not get them through the year
It seems every CC they mention some RFP they have out there and then we never hear about it again. There was a huge DoD RFP last CC. Then Nothing about it. Alcoa and Sunoco were never even mentioned before and now they are the biggest RFP's out there.
I am not sure the VMS pipeline is as robust as they think.
and the outlook for Q2 was nothing great either. They see all the growth in Q3 or Q4.
pretty much all the M2M companies had bad Q1's except for CAMP. Either sales were up and losses were up much more, or sales missed and profits tumbled across the board.
At 10% pro-forma growth, IDSY is losing market share
They closed a building, sold off a division, fired CEO/CFO and didn't replace them, and still costs are up.
for a company so low on cash, they sure spend a ton of money.
How is this even a public company? Why doesn't Kanis just take it private and save $1M/yr in public company costs?
they are basically burning $1M/month. They have $4M as of end of March which means they are down to $2.5M now. Balance sheet deteriorated last quarter and AP is up. If they do a financing, they will want at least 6 months worth of cash or $6M. They company is worth less than $30M so without a shareholder vote the most they can raise is 20% or $6M.
They really need to get the share price near $3 in order to do a deal but it would not surprise me if the deal is in the $2.25 area.
I dumped 2K shares at $2.05 today. Still hold 2K shares.