update: MWP Software no longer is selling their coin or sports card products
it only took 3 days from the lawsuit being initiated
you would think with the Sequester and DoD cutbacks that bases would be clamoring for this. If it reduces vehicle counts, the base can sell off the excess vehicles and use that to pay for the software. Immediate payback. No heads have to be cut, they just cut equipment and equipment maintenance and lower insurance costs
ZIP is essentially a "brain in a jar". They have their own billing and procurement system. Their telematic device is deficient: if does not measure fuel use or mileage and only allows round trips. It is also costly to install. Avis under estimated the costs of linking back end systems and upgrading the telematic device. These costs are probably north of $100M
Fortunately for Avis, they are working with IDSY to remedy all this but Avis is dragging it's feet and wants to underpay IDSY for their efforts. Delays by Avis probably cost them $2M/month in lost synergies. The non-compete for IDSY expires in a few days. Enterprise should would love to buy the telematic solution from IDSY. It would be terrible for Avis if all this work was literally stolen from right out from under their feet. Hertz is pushing ahead with their Eileo solution and their entire fleet will have telematic connection by next year. Avis is fast falling behind.
Then there are patents. Avis has none. Hertz and Enterprise and iDSY have many. Avis will surely need to pay for infringement. Maybe as much as $3M-$5M/yr. I don't understand why they just don't go with IDSY. One can see why ZIP was so fast to agree to be bought out. They knew their technology was second rate.
HAHA! I knew this company was a scam
We believe shares of Fleetmatics Group PLC (FLTX) are grossly overvalued, reflecting few, if any, of the serious risks that warrant questioning the credibility of the company's financial statements. In this report, we discuss the company's use of various accounting shenanigans that inflate profitability, the material weaknesses in its internal controls, the inexplicable discrepancies between related accounts in its financials, and Fleetmatics' founding backer's ties to a previous accounting fraud. According to our analysis, Fleetmatics' 2012 gross margin was inflated by 400bps and reported Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS were overstated by 27% and 33%, respectively. Going forward, we believe the company faces many headwinds, with its vehicle churn rate set to continue accelerating in 2H'13 and beyond; as churn picks up, FLTX is forced to accelerate its deferred costs, potentially resulting in both a revenue and a margin contraction problem, at the same time.
We believe the company has presented itself to the investing public in a highly questionable manner and that, as a result, it has been successful in its efforts to inflate its stock price beyond any reasonable measure of valuation, enabling its insiders to cash out big before the cards come tumbling down. Based on our analysis, Fleetmatics' stock has an intrinsic value today of approximately $11 - $12 per share, ~75% below current trading levels.
just what I've been saying:
And FLTX faces a high risk of failure due to an intensifying competitive landscape characterized by low barriers to entry, limited product differentiation, and intensifying price pressure. FLTX's key network and hardware suppliers are now directly competing against the company.
I've been saying all this stuff. I agree with SA. This is just way overvalued. Sell now and ask questions later is what I would do. This is nothing but an embedded GPS enabled cell phone that phones home
check it out. Not looking good for FLTX. I've been saying on their board how overvalued they are. Has some nice charts with all the players in our sandbox including us. We are so undervalued compared to every other company.
It really puts us in perspective. Other companies in this space have multi-hundred million dollar market caps or billion dollar market caps. We could easily be bought out. I believe the new BOD member will do just that should Avis stall out.
it was his opinion on some things and FACTS on others
massive insider selling
low barriers to entry
large valuation in relation to peer greep
former founder involved in fraud
questionable growth metrics
questionable accounting methods
I would sell and see what happens. don't be caught like a deer in headlights. Get OUT!!!
if no Avis, I see a bottom at $5. At such a point, someone (dozens of potential companies) could just come in and buy the whole company. The DoD angle has potential to be bigger than USPS and WalMart but could take years. The Tire company (Bridgestone) is bigger than USPS and WalMart. They are already a customer and could decide to roll out. So downside is $1.5, upside is maybe $7 based on what is known
so what do you think of the rebuttal on TWN? You've been pretty quiet about that. Cat got your tongue?
whether you agree with fraud or not, they make a compelling case that it is simply just overvalued and has low barriers to entry. Those are two points I have been making since the IPO. They list maybe 20 other companies in the field. FLTX is just so much out of the pack of valuation that it can not be possibly sustained.
Like I said when this broke, get out and see what happens. Sitting like a deer in headlights is not what you want to do.
down $4/sh since the article came out. Under $40 now. Maybe now you guys will start to understand. Volume really picking up. I think some of the big holders are dumping
wow. FLTX down $7 or almost 16%. Huge volume. The SA article says one of their founders was involved in a fraud scheme years ago. The company made him sell out before the IPO