I've spoken about head winds before - a slumping European economy, declining euro, the shadow of regulations in a lack of dividend, despite fair earnings. They may be shifting. The European economy may be bouncing back a little sooner than expected, the euro is recovering from its lows (its up about 10%), and the dividend has been issued. We are solidly over 16. Perhaps we are finally recovering.
We do seem to be marching towards that. Slowly, but steadily.
The earnings seemed to have come out nicely, and the dividend issued. We are nicely over 16 in early trading. Maybe the march will continue.
I remember one time in about 2003 or so that the stock steadily rose for nearly 4 weeks. Every day it was up; maybe only a few pennies or so (and the euro price might have been off on a few days, but the euro was up which still resulted in a US up day). If we could only repeat that.
There are two pivotal events coming up.
There should be a confirmation of a dividend within the next couple of weeks. I don't doubt it, but confirmation will be a helpful boost as there may be an element of doubt out there.
Earnings are also coming out within two weeks. Although consistent in the past few years, they usually seem to be a little on the light side. A nice quarter would be helpful.
Having both of the above fall into line would ease the way into the upper teens.
The Premarket has already reports a rise to about 110.50. Time will tell if that holds and expands. But I'm betting it does. As the next 10 days play out, the market may have to price in a $2 billion price. If that is the case, then the profit for this quarter will jump to over 1.50, making $5 a share for the fiscal year we're in more likely, if not a full year profit of 5.25. At A 25 pe, that puts you at 130. But I would suggest that the pe ratio multiplier should slowly come down a little over the next 5 years.
First, I take an optimistic perspective. Some might want to take my words with a grain of salt.
I believe that Avengers 2 will do $750 domestic, and $2 billion worldwide. It did 207 the first weekend the first go around, but I have read that ticket sales for the May 1 opening are ahead of the first Avengers. It could easily do 250 the first weekend, and, if it held at that rate, it would do about 750 (about the only thing holding it back are the movies it runs into after, including Tomorrow Land). Yes, the Mayweather may hurt a little, but I would be that will only make Friday night busier. Sequels don't alway do better, but the history of Thor, Avengers, and Iron Man (at least IM3) shows real nice increase. Worldwide, remember China only logged in 86m - it could easily do 200+.
Star Wars is bigger than Marvel. It crosses ALL generations, from 5 year olds to 80 year olds (and probably a few before and after). Grandparents will want to take their grandchildren, and the parents in between will tag along. In its first 3 weekends, it will do 300m, 150m, 80m (530 total), and it has 8 days of school vacation in between - 25 million for each of those days may be low - you will have 750 after three weeks, and it will glean much more thereafter. And worldwide it will be crazy - I bet china could approach 500 (but 250 is more realistic).
So far this year, we have had a nice year - Into the Woods did nicely, Cinderella great (I saw one commentator say that 200 million was slim - but I bet it hits that, and that is a big victory). Even McFarland, which was pegged at 30 million, is approaching 45m, as Disney is building a nice niche for sports movies).
I thought it was strange that Tomorrow Land was opening 3 weeks after Marvel - but I recently realized that Avengers will serve as a platform for it - the previews will play before each Avengers, creating excitement and momentum.
I will continue with the next post as I am running out of space.
And after another week, we are still hovering at around 15 - sometimes we seem to be about to break nicely over it, sometimes we just seem to fall back. The euro certainly isn't helping. I'm hoping that there is a strengthening of the European economy, which will increase the euro price, and a similar rise in the euro. Both would move this into the higher teens.
In the interim, we will have to await earnings and the confirmation of earnings. If the earnings are decent, and the dividend is confirmed, I think you might see a 5 - 10 % rise.
We have aways to go.
And if the head winds of the euro weren't there, we would be in the high teens (although I would suggest that the low euro boosts the price).
Then, again, we shouldn't complain - we were about 12.50 two months ago. As the european economy improves, and the euro returns (imho) , we should see renewed highs. Maybe the 20's. Although an extended timeline may be in order.
I think you have 20% to go on the price of the stock on a euro basis, and another 20% to go on the price of the euro. That could mean a price in the low 20's.
The headwind that we have experienced over the past 6 months have not really left us - yes, Greece is a little better, but Russia is still a mess, and the european economy isn't much better. And the euro is lower, with the added uncertainty of Europe buying a lot of euro bonds. The uncertainty of zero interest rates is adding some headwinds, but ING is acting nicely by breaking 13 - if it can go a little further, and the euro begin to rise, we will see nice progress. IF . . .
Now I know why you left - Disney broke through 106 and set a nice new high!! You said it wasn't going to be able to do it today!!!!
we seem to be doing very nicely. If only the Euro was a little stronger. If it was 5 cents more we would be safely over 15. - 25 cents more, and we would be nearing 18
The earnings are out, but they are hard to read. Estimates were about 54 cents, and the announcement says about 17 cents, but one report, when stripping out certain items (which may be quite reasonable), says about 63 cents.
When one looks to sales, the estimates were around 925 million, and the actual amount was 939.5 million. This may be more objective, and certainly give reason to think that the items "stripped out" were justifiably stripped out.
With the late news on Friday about the settlement with Greece, ING should do nicely on Monday. Look for it to be pushing 13 euros and $15.
I know that I said that Greece wasn't a big deal, but it will still give it a nice push. Settlement of the Russian issues in the long term is more important. Greece is 2% of the European economy. Russia has much more of an effect.
And I would suggest that ING has behaved very nicely with the headwinds of Greece and Russia. Maybe its the suggestion of negative interest rates in Europe, and the issuance of ING dividends. With continue progress, we could be in the upper teens by the end of the year.
And, although today the US market is closed, overseas ING seems to be stretching its winning streak. It was over 12.50 euros at one point. Its strength is comforting. If we can merely see this price stabilize and a euro in the mid 1.20's, we will begin to push toward 16.
As you see, these split were some time ago, under different management.
I believe that Disney is frustrated that there are so many single shares outstanding. Similarly, they are frustrated by the costs of sending earnings reports and dividends to these single share holders. A split doesn't help.
Well, we broke that initial level nicely. And, to my surprise, it is up nicely overseas to 12.30 + euros, which is a new high. I thought yesterday's "breakout" would have eased a little. Maybe there was good euro economic news, or the spread of "negative" interest rate in Europe is making ING and its new dividend more desirable.
I have a "hope" that we will see 18 this year, and the 20's next.
Tomorrow will be a tough day. It closed here at 13.75, while it closed overseas at 12 euros - the later translates into 13.68, so ING has to open overseas stronger than it closed on a very nice day.
But maybe the Binckbank ADHD people will buy ING tomorrow.
It's not so much Greece, as it is Russia and the general European economy.
If Russia can settle down, and the European economy improves, then you will see two things. Three things - first, settlement of the Russian controversy and greece will give stability (which is what you are seeing today regarding Russia). Second, the economy improvement will move ING up. And third, you will see a rise in the euro. If the Euro was merely 1.3, you would see a price pushing 16.