Sak, wasn't being critical of your market decisions and support your long term bullish out-look. I always am appreciative of your sharing your thinking with the rest of us and especially find of value, your objective research which is a valuable form of discipline in purchase and sales, especially over the near-term. Thanks again. dcp
Sakeneft, one thing is certain.. since July 1st, you haven't given up much profit opportunity by grabbing profit at high-water-marks. We seem to be running-out the clock on this June-July typically weak pricing period for metals and perhaps August will show us where the strength resides. Good luck to all.
Otto, I dare you to short 10,000 shares out-right.. and if you don't have the cash.. I think you should sell naked calls... I'll take the other side of your bet and I bet that you lose.. BIG TIME! Happy 4th of July, America!
Sakenhaft, much appreciated benefit of your current technical analysis. Your timing couldn't have been much better for today's range. I sincerely do get a better feel for the day to day ebb and flow of a more thinly traded market further narrowed in a single mining issue using your approach. You have made a longer term calculation and are using Pan American in this regard as a trading tool as well. My hat is 'off' to you! Thanks so much for keeping the faithful few in your thoughts. I too, believe that we will see a sharp pullback one time further and I also believe it will come sooner, rather than later. Should this test hold, as I am confident it will, the fall months should prove interesting and profitable on the long end. Good luck to you and all herein. dcp
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sakheneft, a good strategy indeed! Don't forget to put some physicals in your tupperware!
Sakhaneft, you present a reasoned argument for continued growth, expansion and success at Pan American Silver. You offer a reasonable expectation for anyone believing that silver has become too cheap and dollars too expensive. And, for anyone believing the contrary, I believe these shouldn't be buying silver shares.. at all. The management of Pan American follows a professional approach to cautious yet aggressive planning and execution. Missteps can and have been made in the past, but learning from past errors is worth a considerable amount if the lessons produce solid results and a firm footing for the future. Thank you. dcp
The Fuel for Metals
What skeptics of the Bull market have failed to realize over the past 5-years is that the Federal Reserve has turned the stock market upside down, making bad economic news a reason to buy stocks, and good economic news a reason to sell them. The distortion keeps the real value of assets obscure and stuck in the “Twilight Zone.” The answer to this bizarre market behavior is simple: the stock market is being ruled by the Fed, not by fundamentals. In simple terms, what matters to the stock market is the easy money from the Fed, not the performance of the companies whose stocks they are buying and selling.
Indeed, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warned a year ago, on June 6th, 2013, “the equity markets are under the spell of monetary easing policies that have enabled market participants to “tune out signs of a global growth slowdown.” Investors are able to shrug off weak economic data and instead, continue to bid stock prices higher, “amid the prospect of further central bank stimulus. Abundant liquidity and low volatility fostered an environment favoring risk-taking and carry trade activity,” the BIS observed.
Under the cloak of “Infinity QE” – the Fed injected $1.5-trillion into the coffers of its agents on Wall Street, which in turn, was funneled into the stock market, and inflated the market value of NYSE and Nasdaq listed stocks by $6.5-trillion to a record $25-trillion today. Since the Fed fist launched QE in Sept ’08, the central bank has increased its portfolio of bonds by $3.45-trillion, while the value of US-listed shares has increased $15-trillion. In other words, for every $1 of QE, the Fed increased the wealth of shareholders by $4.35. Last year, every bit of news that did not fit the Bullish narrative was downplayed and soon forgotten.
Analysts estimate that 40% of the increase in the earnings per share of S&P-500 companies in the past 12-months was due to the “financial engineering” of corporate treasurers.
From June 10, 2014-Motley Fool
When you decide to buy your silver:
Since investors are often nervous about investing in silver exchange-traded products that don’t hold the actual metal, funds are being forced to buy large amounts of silver as money flows in.
These days, precious metals aren’t attracting much new capital, but this will change when we experience a significant stock market slowdown or decline. Long-term bulls in silver know, this could be a good entry point. As investor money flows into silver funds, so will demand for the actual metal.
Investors looking for silver exposure should just buy the largest producers, like Silver Wheaton (TSX: SLW)(NYSE: SLW), which processed or 'streamed' more than 33 million ounces of silver in 2013. The company remains consistently profitable, has reasonable debt levels, and even pays investors a 1.3% dividend.
Investors looking for a better yield would probably prefer Pan American Silver (TSX: PAA)(NASDAQ: PAAS) and its 3.9% dividend. Pan American also trades at right around its book value, has virtually no debt, and is sitting on $400 million in cash. The company is a terrific place to sit and wait for silver prices to recover.
Just when you are certain that new lows are to be tested... got to suck 'em in.. one more time! Yes, i believe you are targeting June & July time frame for your purchases.. yet, days like this dispels too much fear... fearful is best purchasing.. chasing is separating the casual buyers from their cash stash. Don't get me wrong, medium term is higher.. stocks are not yet done making a top.
With tough enough fingernails... silver can look rather impressive. Let's see where the white metal takes us.
Why We Are Now Selling Our Gold Positions For Silver Positions
Jun. 1, 2014 12:09 AM ET | Includes: AG, AGQ, DBS, DSLV, HL, PAAS, SIVR, SLV, USLV, USV, ZSL
Disclosure: I am long SIVR, AG, PAAS, GPL, RVM, MVG, EXK. (More...)
Summary: Seeking Alpha
Silver's performance over the last three years has been especially weak, but we believe silver is about to start significantly outperforming gold.
2013 Silver Institute data shows that scrap silver supply has plummeted by more than 60 million ounces; 2014 should see even further drops as the silver price has fallen further.
Primary silver miners didn't produce silver profitably in 2013, and may have challenges in 2014 mining silver profitably; and byproduct silver production may also see a drop.
Analysts and investors are especially bearish on silver and are positioned accordingly; thus positive news may catch the market off-guard, and being long silver is truly a contrarian position.
The annual silver market is very small at under $20 billion, and there is the potential for significant gains if even a moderate amount of money enters the silver market.
In the past we've been very bullish of gold and the gold ETFs (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)) and less bullish on silver and the silver ETFs (iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the Sprott Silver Trust (PSLV)), with our biggest reason to own silver simply being its correlation with gold. We are starting to change our mind and believe that investors should begin to allocate more of their precious metals portfolio to silver over gold. We want to stress this isn't because we're bearish on gold (quite the contrary), but rather that we believe that the potential returns on silver are potentially much better than in gold.
I fail to see Yahoo bulletin board enforcement.. anywhere. Their revamp would suggest that all their former personnel ended up in the administration of the White House. Perhaps I'm being too critical.. OR not!
As I've stated numerous times, I've been working with Gainesville Coins in Lutz, FL in buying physical one ounce silver government and mint struck coins. I also buy rarer dates in half-dollar US silver coins.. and other govt authorized strikes having lower premiums. I've stepped up my purchases these past few weeks and will complete short term purchases this morning. Confidence is high.. July-August will mark a resurgence in price.. weakness is fear driven. Fear is something Governments are now providing in abundance. Don't worry.. I've kept my silver shares in PanAmerican and will add to them now that 4% dividend yields are present. No, I don't see the dividend cut. Argue with me.. or leave it alone
As an inveterate contrarian it does my heart good to see so many bears prowling the stock-chat boards. The gloom.. so thick, you can cut it with a knife.. simply indicates a turn. When I traded commodities and commodity options, putting your money up, generally meant you grabbed the edge of your seat until the trade was closed via pulling the pin or embracing your stops. You were either a trader or spectator and investors bought shares without using leverage. Much has changed. The exception being that the psychology of traders, the trading tools and products designed to extract cash from your account in the quickest and surest manner possible. Who is your worst enemy? I know that American voters are quick to blame anyone other than the guy staring back from the mirror.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sakman, glad you 'ere on the side of caution and you handle market shifts with an alacrity that is far better than most (I include myself). My friend who buys physicals called today to indicate that he's contemplating a silver purchase imminently. He's more perceptive than most and very stingy with his money. His last large purchase (net price) came in at just above $18/per ounce. Good fortune to all. Fat Lady seems about to clear her throat.
In addition to nearing the 2013 lows we're hugging key support levels that prevent silver from moving much lower – to the $14 - $16 target area. Should this present level be broken, silver may likely move more sharply lower. Many, believing this significant it is easier to understand why this support line is not easy to break. Since gold, silver, and mining seem correlated in the short term, it’s also no wonder that silver’s refusal to move sharply lower already is accompanied by a similar refusal in the case of gold and mining stocks.
Silver is just above critical long term support
Silver has not broken down from this support
Silver has not broken up from trend line resistance*
One of these must give way in the next several weeks
No amount of pom pom waving or doom saying is going to influence it in one direction or the other
Mining stocks remain bearish, but not extremely bearish, which means that we don't increase the size of the short position just yet. Precious metals are not responding strongly to the dollar’s recent rallies so far, but it seems that investors and traders are simply waiting for a confirmation of the breakout in the USD Index. Again, time will tell. Tune out the caricatures in the media that have been wrong for years and understand gold’s real fundamentals and silver’s relationship to gold within the macro processes. It's work that is worthy of the effort and sure to last a life-time.
Bruise, you've gotten into a GREAT trade at an excellent price. Silver will likely track gold (at least initially) and though I believe a bottom is likely made in this market.. July and August will probably mark the initial up that will take us to and through lines of resistance. Silver will trade through $23-$24 and then things will get interesting. You'll get a sense of all of this when it occurs.. 'til then, we watch paint dry. Objectives? Well, I'm looking for a punch through $50/ounce and beyond that... share price remains uncharted. I believe your $17 will be bid by eager hands and you'll later be sorry that you grabbed a profit... however, there are generally more buying opportunities than profitable selling opportunities. This is my story and I'm stick'n to it!