biotechinvest1077: Your response was right on. Over the years I have lost a lot of money falling in love with a stock and holding on too long. Most of my gains have been through cutting and running and staying the course on upward moving stocks like ETRM. Gee, I'm accused of touting a stock like ETRM-duh when does a more than 100% return since I first mentioned ETRM on this board many months ago constitute bad advice!
oozhe22 has changed his iD to ERNm in replying to Seeking Alpha article "Lake Street Likes Enteromedics" (see Marketwatch website).
His ID changed but not his lying: He says the FDA protocol ended at 12 months and Lake Street is cherry picking the 18 month data. Fact is that the FDA asked for the 18 month data for its review: to my thinking that constitutes an addendum to the protocol.
You bring up a valid point: Some stocks like Google and Apple can be so-called "overbought" for years. The old paradigms before high speed black box driven trading no longer apply.
January finds the FDA wakening from its Thanksgiving-XMAS-New Years slow down. VBLOC should get an ADCOM date notice in January with the actual meeting in February or March. The FDA in announcing an ADCOM date will almost simultaneously announce the PDUFA decision date.
Alswearington: I have never shorted a stock in my life. Sorry for your loss on CYTK, but I was transparent in telling this board the day after Blum's ridiculous and premature RS that I had bailed and moved to ETRM ( avoided a further 40% haircut on CYTK and made a 100% gain on ETRM, which I'm still holding). I give valuable input to this board.
One thing we longs know is that bashers NEVER apologize for being wrong and missing out on huge profits. In the seven years I have been on the Yahoo boards I have NEVER seen a basher do a mea culpa.
With the market down today and not all the traders back, profit takers skimmed off ETRM profits and caused a surprisingly low $2.20 close. With traders back in full force tomorrow before the weekend I expect ETRM to close up, perhaps at $2.50. Notice that there have been NO institutional filings of major shareholders dumping shares. The company is being very quiet as the final negotiations with the FDA are imminent.
Considering the fact that the $2.50 strike represents an approximate 23% premium to the current trading price of the stock (in other words it is out-of-the-money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including greeks and implied greeks) suggest the current odds of that happening are 30%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, Stock Options Channel will track those odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of those numbers (the trading history of the option contract will also be charted). Should the covered call contract expire worthless, the premium would represent a 34.31% boost of extra return to the investor, or 54.94% annualized, which we refer to as the YieldBoost.
Top YieldBoost Calls of the S&P 500 »
The implied volatility in the call contract example above is 172%. Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing twelve month volatility (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $2.04) to be 120%.
Investors in EnteroMedics Inc (ETRM_) saw new options become available this week, for the August 2014 expiration. One of the key inputs that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 228 days until expiration the newly available contracts represent a possible opportunity for sellers of puts or calls to achieve a higher premium than would be available for the contracts with a closer expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the ETRM options chain for the new August 2014 contracts and identified the following call contract of particular interest.
The call contract at the $2.50 strike price has a current bid of 70 cents. If an investor was to purchase shares of ETRM stock at the current price level of $2.04/share, and then sell-to-open that call contract as a "covered call," they are committing to sell the stock at $2.50. Considering the call seller will also collect the premium, that would drive a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 56.86% if the stock gets called away at the August 2014 expiration (before broker commissions). Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if ETRM shares really soar, which is why looking at the trailing twelve month trading history for EnteroMedics Inc, as well as studying the business fundamentals becomes important.
When VBLOC achieved superiority, but not super superiority, the FDA encouraged Enteromedics to file and expect an ADCOM. This tells me that had VBLOC achieved super superiority the FDA would have approved without an ADCOM. Since the FDA is currently assessing the 18-month data, including safety, it is possible that may be enough to sway FDA approval for obesity, with additional benefits for hypertension and diabetes requiring a post-approval trial or followup period.
I get FDA email notices on new advisory meetings(all types) and have noticed very little happening in December. I expect January to bring a burst of FDA activity.
hawk: You're playing amateur Dr Freud. I made money on CYTK and my anger towards Blum is rational and controlled.
Are you in or are you out? 10 minutes left before years end. FDA loves safety and ancillary benefits(e.g., diabetes and hypertension). VBLOC/Maestro has all of those!
hawk: Negativity or positivity has NOTHING to do with buying and selling trading decisions. Blum made a VERY unfriendly move against retail shareholders with the excessive and preemptive 1-6 RS. I laid out my case and as I predicted the institutional shorts had a field day. I can't say I won't ever again take a position in CYTK; however, my trust level with Blum is quite low.
If you haven't taken a position yet I hope you buy by 12/31. The well-known "January Affect" should prove quite profitable.