Thu, Dec 25, 2014, 10:26 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed for Christmas

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Turkcell Iletisim (TKC) Message Board

dcxavier 156 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 11:03 PM Member since: Nov 22, 1999
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • I'm glad you people don't balance my checkbook.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 22, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board.

    We have our first entry. Cow selects Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR). I never heard of it before. It appears to be a good sized shale driller that has been brutalized lately. Maybe cow can add some color to his selection.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR

  • ESRX signed a deal to put ABBV's hep C treatment on its formulary to the exclusion of GILD. The treatments are both nearly 100% effective. ABBV has agreed to charge much less than GILD and provide ESRX with larger profit margins. But ABBV's treatment requires 4-6 pills per day spaced at various intervals to be effective while GILD is one pill per day. It is putting drug companies on notice on who has the pricing power. I'm sure it also has the tacit approval of the Obama administration, which is out to cut cost wherever possible.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcx_one Dec 19, 2014 9:09 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    Here are the rules.

    1. Pick one stock you think will do the best in January, 2015. Winner will be the one whose stock rises by the greatest percentage (or goes down the least if it comes to that).

    2. Stock must be priced at $1 per share or greater at close on December 31, 2014. It doesn't have to be a lousy company, but those selections are encouraged.

    3. Only one stock per person, and only one person per stock. First come, first served. It must be a stock. No options, warrants, leveraged/inverse ETF's, etc. Straight ETF's are OK.

    4. Your selection must be made by 12:01 AM ET, January 2, 2015.

    5. You will not be forced to hold your position until the end of January. At any point during the month, you can exit and your result will be final. If you declare sell during the trading session, your result will be based on the closing price that day. If you declare sell during non-trading hours, your result will be based on the closing price of the next trading day. If you go the whole month, your result will be based on the closing price on January 30, 2015.

    6. Although not a requirement, it would be good if you could provide a profile of the company, why you think it is a good choice, and whether you are investing your own money in the stock.

    7. Ongoing results will be posted semi-regularly during the month.

    8. Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    ***** The Rules *****

    1. Pick one stock you think will do the best in January, 2015. Winner will be the one whose stock rises by the greatest percentage (or goes down the least if it comes to that).

    2. Stock must be priced at $1 per share or greater at close on December 31, 2014. It doesn't have to be a lousy company, but those selections are encouraged.

    3. Only one stock per person, and only one person per stock. First come, first served. It must be a stock. No options, warrants, leveraged/inverse ETF's, etc. Straight ETF's are OK.

    4. Your selection must be made by 12:01 AM ET, January 2, 2015.

    5. You will not be forced to hold your position until the end of January. At any point during the month, you can exit and your result will be final. If you declare sell during the trading session, your result will be based on the closing price that day. If you declare sell during non-trading hours, your result will be based on the closing price of the next trading day. If you go the whole month, your result will be based on the closing price on January 30, 2015.

    6. Although not a requirement, it would be good if you could provide a profile of the company, why you think it is a good choice, and whether you are investing your own money in the stock.

    7. Ongoing results will be posted semi-regularly during the month.

    8. Good luck to all!

  • This is cross-posted on the KLIC board.

    It's time for the annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest. It is a well known phenomenon that the previous year's worst performers often do exceptionally well in January. The general explanation is that they see large tax-related selling, and end up oversold. As a contest participant, your task is to identify which stock will do the best in the month of January. There is a prize, I will give a $100 donation to the charity of the winner's choice. The contest is open to all. Full year performance from last year's contest will be posted later, if I don't forget. So sharpen those pencils, load up those spreadsheets, get your DD mojo working.

    Remember,"Cr-ppy Stock" Picking Contest, not "Cr-ppy" Stock Picking Contest.

    Rules on next message. Yahoo (jerks) shortened the maximum message length.

  • dcxavier by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Stock up almost 20% on high volume in last 10 minutes of trading today. Can't find any news.

  • Reply to

    JUNO IPO called 30x oversubscribed

    by dcxavier Dec 18, 2014 1:45 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    My prediction... Otsuka is going to have buyer's regret.

  • IMGN ADC technology is supposed to carry the drug directly to the tumor, resulting in superior outcome. At least that's the theory.

    "In theory, theory is as good as practice."

    ===

    ImmunoGen, Inc. (IMGN), a biotechnology company that develops novel anticancer therapeutics using its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology, today reported that Roche has announced top-line results of its Phase III MARIANNE study.

    The study evaluated three HER2-targeted regimens – Kadcyla® (ado-trastuzumab emtansine) plus Perjeta® (pertuzumab), Kadcyla alone, and Herceptin® (trastuzumab) plus taxane chemotherapy – in people with previously untreated HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (mBC). Kadcyla utilizes ImmunoGen’s ADC technology and is already approved to treat patients with HER2-positive mBC who previously received trastuzumab and a taxane.

    Roche has reported the MARIANNE study showed the three regimens helped people live without their disease worsening (PFS) for a similar amount of time, meeting its non-inferiority endpoint as assessed by an Independent Review Committee. However, neither Kadcyla-containing treatment arm significantly improved PFS compared to Herceptin and chemotherapy. Adverse events observed in the two experimental arms of the study were generally consistent with those seen in previous studies of Kadcyla and/or Perjeta.

  • Reply to

    OT: Shkreli fired at RTRX

    by dcxavier Sep 30, 2014 8:16 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 18, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Shkreli won by a nose over the paired entry of Mark Ahn (GALE) and Steve Kriegsman (CYTR). They worked together to write and publish misleading articles under false names on Seeking Alpha and other sites to tout their companies. They then sold millions of dollars of their personal holdings into the rallies. The SEC is currently investigating.

  • Reply to

    OT: Shkreli fired at RTRX

    by dcxavier Sep 30, 2014 8:16 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 18, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Martin Shkreli was voted worst biotech CEO of 2014 by readers of Feuerstein's biotech blog at thestreet.com.

    Congratulations Marty, well done!

  • They are a CAR-T company. I think this is helping propel BLUE today.

    The background of JUNO CEO Hans Bishop is, um, interesting. He is a long time director of AVNR, which recently was bought out by Japanese pharma Otsuka. The main AVNR product is reformulated DXM cough syrup for psuedobular affect. He was also executive VP and COO for now bankrupt DNDN. So which management team would you put your money on?

  • dcxavier dcxavier Dec 16, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    corona,

    The message board software pukes when you use the "less than" sign. That bug has been in the Yahoo software for years. It's been reported may times and they don't really care.

  • Reply to

    OT: Shkreli fired at RTRX

    by dcxavier Sep 30, 2014 8:16 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 15, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Marty is one of AF's candidates for worst biotech CEO of 2014. Vote early and vote often.

  • Reply to

    OT: Two topics BLUE and oil

    by dcxavier Dec 8, 2014 1:31 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 15, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    One more thing about oil. A second order problem is with the banks, financial companies and hedge funds who lent money to the oil drillers. If you are drilling, you make payroll before paying off the loans. It's been so long since it last happened, but oil busts have wiped out many financial institutions in the past. It has also been prominently reported that Houston had more housing starts in 2014 than the entire state of California. I don't think that is going to repeat in 2015. With exploitation of shale, the problems won't be isolated to the traditional oil patch. You need to be careful in your DD in businesses not directly involved with energy production.

  • With the good news, mutual funds will want shares of BLUE for year end window dressing.

    In my opinion, BLUE is fully valued (and maybe a bit overvalued) for beta-thal. If you buy now, you're betting on sickle cell. But if that comes in, a five bagger from here isn't out of the question.

  • Reply to

    OT: Two topics BLUE and oil

    by dcxavier Dec 8, 2014 1:31 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 14, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Gotta be really careful with energy companies. A lot of them are leveraged to the max. The companies borrowed to bring fields into production, and use the cash flow to pay off the debt. They are profitable with $100/barrel oil, but can't get enough cash to pay the debt at $60/barrel oil. They are a lot like KLIC used to be, except no one would miss them if they disappeared. The big boys have tons of cash and can easily wait out low priced oil. I think you can make out really well with the juniors if you can do the DD to separate out the winners and losers. Many of them provide detailed reports. Let us know what you find.

    Good luck!

  • Reply to

    SABCS 2014 Poster

    by cow_4_beans Dec 11, 2014 5:38 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 13, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    Search for the FDA document "Guidance for Industry Non-Inferiority Clinical Trials".

  • Reply to

    SABCS 2014 Poster

    by cow_4_beans Dec 11, 2014 5:38 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 13, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    -- "the study protocol contains an acceptable, prospectively defined margin for non-inferiority"

    BINGO! It's what I've said many times before. The margin is not something you simply pull out of a hat, there are rigorous methods for establishing it. It is complicated when comparing drug A vs. established drug B, when drug B was originally compared to placebo. I can't imagine how you would do it against TPC, when some TPC drugs like eribulin were compared to other existing treatments. For that reason, I do not believe that such a margin has been defined. I do believe that if such a margin has been calculated, HR would heavily promote the fact that NKTR-102 wouldn't need to demonstrate superiority.

    There is a lot of literature on this subject out there, the most important of which is on the FDA web site. The FDA directly states that if non-inferiority can be an acceptable outcome for approval, then the study should be designed for non-inferiority from the start.

  • Reply to

    SABCS 2014 Poster

    by cow_4_beans Dec 11, 2014 5:38 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Dec 12, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    I'll address a few things in one post.

    cow, The FDA doesn't kill any drug short of obvious safety issues, but it does ask for more studies when efficacy isn't clearly demonstrated. What happens if NKTR-102 median OS isn't statistically superior to TPC? In my opinion, the FDA would ask for additional efficacy data before NKTR-102 could be approved. That would be years plus millions of dollars. A dramatic reduction in AE's might bend the curve a slight bit. But NKTR made the decision to run a superiority study, not a non-inferiority study. What you are advocating is data mining, i.e., identifying some non-prespecified subset of robust responders and advocating for approval for that group in a larger failed study.

    tlc, 5 fluorouracil plus leucovorin is the current standard of care for second line metastatic pancan. Haven't had time to look it up, but I'm sure FOLFIRI has been tried and found not to be superior. Using MM-398 did the trick. Here's a bit of trivia... Dr. Daniel Von Hoff was the lead investigator of the MM-398 Phase 3. Does the name sound familiar to the old hands here?

    ofjames, Look up Kaplan-Meier Curve. You see those charts everywhere in presentations about cancer drugs. It is used to calculate median OS and PFS.

TKC
14.91-0.03(-0.20%)Dec 24 1:02 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.