-- "obligatory 10-k statement"
You consider the listed risk items in SEC filings as boilerplate and meaningless. They are quite real.
Dilution is pretty much out of HR's hand. If NKTR needs cash, they need cash, no way around it. Historically companies do a big hype immediately prior to dilution, NKTR is no exception.
HR states that NKTR is capable of marketing oncology drugs itself, but needs to partner pain drugs, will require a sales force beyond what NKTR can provide.
HR states that NKTR won't run another pivotal study for NKTR-102 because of resource restraints. Meetings with FDA and EMA haven't been held yet. He said that NKTR-102 approval is a long shot, given that drugs with p-value greater than 0.05 are rarely approved. Whether there is a path forward with existing data will be known by the end of the year.
Only a single NKTR-102 slide in the Jeffries presentation, buried behind Movantik, BAX-855, NKTR-181 and the Bayer candidates. Not much new to report.
-- "an indication of the path to be taken with the FDA"
That's months away. But I wouldn't be surprised if HR stated that NKTR is responding to data requests from the FDA and EMA.
No complete responses, not even a single partial response. No indication of the life expectancy of the patients undergoing treatment if given TPC rather than NWBO's injection. They used weasal words like "poor prognosis" with no data to back it up. Typical NWBO hot air. They studiously avoid running controlled trials, which is what it takes to get cancer drugs approved these days. There's a reason why NWBO didn't present at ASCO itself.
NWBO, queen of the single arm cancer studies, didn't even present at ASCO. Their presentation was outside of ASCO, though at the same location. No doubt to avoid critical commentary and ridicule at how they approach studies and present anecdotal results. But you have to admit, their booth was amazing!
Single agent IMGN853 phase 1. Seventeen patients, eight PR's, one CR.
Raising $300M in additional capital through a 10.75% preferred for a REIT this small doesn't strike me as a move that a company would make if a takeover was in the cards. A secondary for the common stock makes more sense, but that probably couldn't be done. Buying the preferred was a good short term move in April, I'm hoping that history repeats. If not, I'm stuck at 10.75%, not a bad deal at the present.
Message bears repeating... if ADK needs to pay 10.75% for capital, they can't be competitive. But I did buy the preferred below $25.50 this morning. That seems like a good deal.
imshealth collects prescription and sales data and sells it to paying customers. Occasionally data is leaked. That's how we know that Afrezza is selling poorly. Maybe someone will leak the Movantik data. Otherwise, we wait for the AZN quarterly earnings release info.
When exactly did you buy at $52? BLUE gapped from the $40's to the $70's when the ASH data was released last December and never retraced.
You guys must have shorted almost every trade at $190 and above. There were only a few thousand shares traded at that price.
The FDA endpoint is reasonable if BLUE is to collect $1M/treatment. The very first BT patient who received the prototype virus has stable good globin and remains transfusion-free many years later. The question I have is how long must study participants remain transfusion-free to meet the FDA criterion? One year? Two years? Longer?
The abstract. which I'm sure will be included in a BLUE press release, is much more than one patient. It will be all patients who have been treated as of March. There are new patients in Northstar and 205 since the ASH 2014 presentation. Data may be given for some of them, others may be reported as too recent to evaluate. There might be 206 information. The presentation at EHA will bring the results up to the present, and is likely to include even more patients.
I read 6 AM EDT for the abstract release. I'll be looking for it when I wake up tomorrow.
Hoyas, I tried to add the "killing it" thread too, but the Yahoo (jerks) message board software deleted the message as soon as it was posted.
The big takeaway I get from the cafepharma threads is that the success of Movantik is going to depend to a large extent on whether it is used daily or as needed by patients.
5/4: (Part 2)
Left off another major downside to Movantik from the above post:
Most doctors will want to RX PRN, not QD as recommended in the PI. Of course, that is their prerogative if they choose to do so. All of the Publisis and AZ reps who attended our meeting made that comment, so be ready for that dose of reality. Hey, I'd rather have a Rx where the patient uses as needed, with a few refills during the year, than no scripts at all.
If Movantik does "$150-200 billion at its peak" as the above poster stated, then Daiichi will launch the best drug it has to date. The entire hypertension franchise has only done $2 billion, so think about what you said. It doesn't matter if this drug is a blockbuster as long as we learn about the pain market. You have to start somewhere. If it's so bad, the door swings both ways.
Thanks for the update, even if it is discouraging. Better to be prepared than not.
I'm sure the previous poster meant "million" not "billion". If not, then he is crazier than KK and RL!!!
From what I'm hearing, Publisis has been "blind sided" by the co- promotional deal with DSI. 3 of their reps have already jumped ship in our territory. Their call plans have been changed for the 3rd time as well as the bonus structure. Publisis knows their K with AZ is a "one year and done".
Happy trails, and watch out for the Biavians...they'll eat you up!!
The most remarkable thing about this awful drug is how much money DSI gave up to serve as AZ's CSO:
AstraZeneca PLC chose Daiichi Sankyo Inc. to co-promote the newly approved constipation therapy Movantik (naloxegol) in the US. Daiichi paid $200mm in cash up front, and could hand over up to $625mm in sales-based milestones.
And we are on the hook for $40m in launch A&P spending. Seriously, this dog will never turn a profit for us. How the heck was this deal approved?