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Saga Communications Inc. Message Board

dcxavier 136 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2015 9:53 AM Member since: Nov 22, 1999
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  • dcxavier dcxavier May 1, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    TSLA announced 10kWh total battery backup for $3500 (plus installation I assume). It might work for a solar house in which the battery could be recharged during the day even if the power is out. It's way too small to power air conditioning for very long during an outage. I don't think it makes much sense at all without solar on your house.

    Anything that increases lithium usage is good in my book.

  • Maintains underperform, $9 PT. He now models 40% chance of NKTR-102 approval based on BEACON, but says "we could still be aggressive". He models 2015 Movantik sales of $40M US and $8M EU. He makes an interesting point that if Movantik sales take off better than expected, then expect competitive drugs like oral Relistor and bevenopran to be advanced quickly. He believes that DTC advertising is key to increasing Movantik sales. NKTR apparently agrees, as the company stated in the CC they are providing money to support an advertising campaign.

  • Reply to

    White elephant in the room

    by ofjames Apr 30, 2015 6:07 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 30, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    I think you're being hard on HR for the wrong reasons. Absolutely nothing about the NKTR-102 path forward has changed since BEACON results were presented. The end of 2015 has always been a reasonable date for NKTR-102 review completion with the FDA and EMA. The NSCLC study was investigator (not NKTR) initiated and it's not really relevant to BEACON. It's up to the investigator to present results as he sees fit. I believe the odds are against accelerated approval for NKTR-102, meaning another Phase 3 would be required. If approved, it would likely be only for brain mets. But I wouldn't be surprised if NKTR-102 were given breakthrough designation (without AA) for that. HR is wise not to start another NKTR-102 study until this is clarified given the company's cash position.

    Did you catch the very first analyst question about AZN getting Movantik onto insurance formularies? Not many patients will take Movantik daily at $250/month out of pocket for intermittent constipation. Especially when you can buy a box of 24 bisacodyl at Dollar Tree to try first. Especially when Movantik appears to be effective when taken as needed rather than daily. Getting it on the formulary means patients pay $20-$40 copay per month rather than $250. The difference in price represents a car payment to the average Joe.

  • Reply to


    by dcxavier Apr 30, 2015 4:25 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 30, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    In: Immunotherapy company.
    Five minutes ago: Pain company
    Out: Pegylation company

  • Reply to


    by dcxavier Apr 30, 2015 4:25 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 30, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    NKTR-102 discussions with regulatory authorities expected to complete by end of 2015.

  • dcxavier by dcxavier Apr 30, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Nothing new to report. Still burning well in excess of $50M cash per quarter. Minor hunk of milestone money coming with BAX-855 later this year. For a while, it's all dependent on Movantik sales.

  • Depends on which analyst you ask. NKTR analyst Steve Byrne (who has an underperform $9 PT on NKTR) predicts peak sales of $500M in 2020. AZN analyst Sachin Jain has $300M Movantik sales in 2023.

  • dcxavier by dcxavier Apr 27, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Now 20 cents/share.

  • dcxavier dcxavier Apr 27, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Injecting a virus into the body and hoping for the best seemed like a real long shot to begin with. I believe AAVL will fail also. Extracting cells, modifying them outside the body, then reinserting has much more promise.

  • Reply to

    beta thalassemia patients

    by nu2blueinvstng2 Apr 26, 2015 8:29 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 26, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    "Cured" is one of those amorphous terms. Cancer patients are typically called cured if there is no sign of the disease five years after treatment, but that doesn't mean it won't reappear in the future. "Not in need of treatment" is a better way to think about it. BLUE is batting 1.000 so far. All patients treated to date have reached a level of good globin, after which no blood transfusions have been necessary. There have been no serious treatment related adverse events. The longer this outstanding progress continues, the greater the confidence in BLUE's approach by the medical community, hopefully culminating in FDA approval.

  • Trading as low as $22.15 in premarket. What's going on? Another buying op? There was a 370K trade on close yesterday, also.

  • Reply to

    BAX 111 Phase 3 Positive data results

    by sterno_bum Apr 21, 2015 6:39 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 21, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Well, yeah. BAX-111 is wholly owned by Baxter. NKTR had no role in its development.

  • Search for "New Blood Test Shows Promise in Cancer Fight".

  • Reply to

    Nektar set to rise this week

    by corona_and_a_cigar Apr 19, 2015 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 20, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up.

  • Once again, placebo results greatly exceed expectations. Is Ampion an effective drug that failed due to poor study design?

  • Reply to

    SCD data not likely until ASH

    by hwsimpsonshero Apr 17, 2015 4:19 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 17, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    The endpoints for SCD success are absence of symptoms and treatment related adverse events. What I would like to see at EHA for SCD is a table of patients like BLUE has provided for BT, with information like age/sex, date of treatment, globin levels, etc. It's important that BLUE report serious AE's also. It could take time for SCD symptoms to dissipate as good globin levels rise, so BLUE may want to have six months to a year of data in hand before presenting efficacy results.

  • Reply to

    Cashed out for now at $7.80 AH

    by dcxavier Mar 26, 2015 8:16 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 17, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Just got back in at $7.53. And I get to keep the change.

  • dcxavier dcxavier Apr 17, 2015 11:13 AM Flag


    The FBT ETF, which tracks the biotech index, does own stock and will do a ton of buying and selling at the close.

  • dcxavier by dcxavier Apr 15, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    Presented by Dr. Doberstein. Topics are in the order presented with notes. No mention of NKTR-171.

    1. Movantik

    2. BAX-855 - PDUFA November, 2015, launch by the end of 2015.

    3. NKTR-061 - Phase 3 complete 1Q16.

    4. NKTR-023 - Phase 3 complete 2H16.

    5. NKTR-181 - Two efficacy studies anticipated to last 18-24 months each. First with opioid-naïve patients started in February, second with opioid-experienced patients being designed. Interim analysis may result in increasing the number of patients in the study.

    6. NKTR-102 - No additional NKTR-102 studies will be started until reviews with US and EU regulatory agencies are complete. Data will be presented at future scientific events. No timeline given.

    7. NKTR-214 - IND in 4Q15. Combo treatment with CTLA-4 inhibitor resulted in durable response without further dosing in mice re-infected with tumor.

  • Reply to

    NKTR 181 Phase 3 look at the last point

    by kklausbeckerman Apr 14, 2015 8:49 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 14, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    -- "Dr. Ivan Gergel was brought to the company for one reason only - to ensure that NKTR-181 meets its primary endpoint in Phase III and is commercially approved"

    I believe that the same words were written about the late Dr. Robert Medve. It isn't easy. NKTR is going with another withdrawal test for Phase 3. This time, it's back pain instead of OA of the knee, NSAID use is not permitted and acetaminophen is the rescue drug. Under Dr. Medve's design, it would be clear that NKTR-181 was superior to NSAID's. That isn't clear from the new study design. Recent retrospective study reviews appear to show that acetaminophen is not effective against back pain. We will see if that affects study results. NKTR also could run a parallel arm efficacy study, NKTR-181 vs. NSAID's. That would provide clear evidence of the superiority of NKTR-181 to NSAID's.

    This isn't a slam dunk by any means.

40.71+0.72(+1.80%)May 1 4:01 PMEDT