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Saga Communications Inc. Message Board

dcxavier 134 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2014 9:11 AM Member since: Nov 22, 1999
  • Reply to

    Smart Aquarium: There’s an IoT kit for that

    by jamulmike Mar 13, 2014 11:35 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 16, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    Stock price dropping premarket, I guess the aquarium business isn't as strong as you thought.

  • Reply to

    I was waiting for nktr to go

    by junkbond13 Apr 15, 2014 3:54 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 15, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    NAZ bounced off the 200 day moving average. NKTR rises and falls with the waves.

  • Shkreli is now the CEO of pharma company Retrophin (RTRX). RTRX is an M&A company, it does not do any development of its own. Here's how it works. RTRX recently acquired Manchester Pharma for their drug Chenodal. Chenodal has been around since the early 1908's and is a nasty drug. It is used to dissolve gall stones for patients in which surgery is not an option. Shkreli's first order of business after acquisition was to raise the price of 100 pills from $9400 to $47K. RTRX announced today that they expect to double previous revenue estimates for 2014 and 2015 as a result of the price hike. RTRX is also pursuing orphan designation for Chenodal for treatment of cerebrotendinous xanthomatosis (CTX). It involves an aggressive effort to get physicians to diagnose CTX in patients. RTRX intends to charge over $100K per 100 pills for this application.

    Someone should clue Henry Waxman into this guy. In case you're wondering why health insurance costs are rising.

  • They can't seem to turn the technology into a promising drug.

  • Search for "Cancer ‘Miracle’ Patients Studied Anew for Disease Clues"

  • Reply to

    what is the true value of this company?

    by mwalk65 Apr 11, 2014 12:33 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 11, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    NKTR recently finished the FOLFIRI Phase I.

  • Reply to

    What sector will get crushed next ??

    by corona_and_a_cigar Apr 11, 2014 8:30 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 11, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    You could be right. Margin was at all time highs earlier this year. It usually chases the momo sectors. It's very ugly when brokers close out clients with market sells after collateral falls below limits. The good news is that there are often screaming bargains to be found in the wreckage for those with dry powder. I'm overweight with REIT's and other high dividend stocks at the moment, they are holding up very well with the declining interest rates. I'll look to switch over if the current decline becomes a rout.

  • Dance Pharma (DNCE) filed for an IPO. Their product is inhaled insulin, and they have just completed a Phase II. The CEO of DNCE is... (drum roll please)... John Patton, co-founder of NKTR.

  • This is why the stock dropped a couple of weeks ago and why Lifetech sees trouble ahead. Inducing possibly irreversible cardiac problems is never good. Even if not fatal, heart problems limit further treatment options.

    "QTC prolongation grade 3 was observed in 5% of patients and resolved in most cases upon dose reduction."

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech decline may have much more to go

    by dcxavier Apr 5, 2014 4:13 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 8, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    NKTR closed today at a price lower than when I sold last fall following the NKTR-181 Phase II failure. Quite a roller coaster ride.

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech decline may have much more to go

    by dcxavier Apr 5, 2014 4:13 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 7, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    TZA is the 3x inverse of the Russell 2000, not the Russell 3000. The Russell 3000 was up over 1% as of Friday, but that's not relevant to the discussion.

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech decline may have much more to go

    by dcxavier Apr 5, 2014 4:13 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 7, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Good grief, it's mm. You brought up TZA as a hedging vehicle. Let's look at it. The Russell 2000 index was down 1% YTD as of Friday. Was TZA up 3%? Nope, TZA was down 4% YTD, 7% decay in three months. A wonderful mm-endorsed investment choice.

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech decline may have much more to go

    by dcxavier Apr 5, 2014 4:13 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 7, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    Avoid *all* leveraged and inverse ETF's. They suffer from a phenomenon called decay when held longer than a single day. FINRA has stated that these ETF's are suitable for day trading only. They will all trade to zero over time no matter what happens to the underlying security or index. It has nothing to do with fees or other methods of skimming money. It's all about the mathematics of daily leverage or inverse. The math has an incredibly counterintuitive effect over time.

    Here's an example, using large numbers to exaggerate the effect.

    Day 0

    Index = 100
    Inverse = 100
    2x Index = 100
    2x Inverse = 100
    3x Index = 100
    3x Inverse = 100

    Day 1: Index up 10%, so Inverse down 10%, 2x Index up 20%, 2x Inverse down 20%, 3x Index up 30%, 3x Inverse down 30%

    Index = 110
    Inverse = 90
    2x Index = 120
    2x Inverse = 80
    3x Index = 130
    3x Inverse = 70

    Day 2: Index down 10%, so Inverse up 10%, 2x Index down 20%, 2x Inverse up 20%, 3x Index down 30%, 3x Inverse up 30%

    Index = 99
    Inverse = 99
    2x Index = 96
    2x Inverse = 96
    3x Index = 91
    3x Inverse = 91

    Since Index is 99, wouldn't you expect

    Inverse = 101, instead $2/share of decay
    2x Index = 98, instead $2/share of decay
    2x Inverse = 102, instead $6/share of decay
    3x Index = 97, instead $6/share of decay
    3x Inverse = 103, instead $12/share of decay

    Inverse *is not* the same as shorting.

    These funds are plain rotten, and it has nothing to do with the issuers stealing money. That's why there is a movement to outlaw them and some brokers refuse to trade them for clients.

  • Reply to

    Why the biotech decline may have much more to go

    by dcxavier Apr 5, 2014 4:13 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 7, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Shorting against the box or using options isn't a viable option for management who have to report changes in position. Nor do single stock plays work if you want to hedge a large position very quickly. Inverse and 2x/3x funds suffer from decay if held more than one day, which is mathematically based and has nothing to do with fees.

  • dcxavier by dcxavier Apr 7, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    Why is that?

  • Google "Jim Cramer: Looks Like 2000 Is in Play".

    How large holders of stocks can "cash out" without actually selling. It looks quite suspicious if biotech execs take their money off the table, so they could short a basket of similar stocks instead. Cramer's story is about tech, not biotech, but it works when related stocks all move together as a group, as the biotechs have done in the past couple of years.

  • Reply to

    Someone is trying to shake the tree.

    by kklausbeckerman Apr 3, 2014 10:21 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 3, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Biotech in general is getting whupped again today. NKTR rode it up, now it's riding back down.

  • Reply to

    AcCom chances

    by bearcat626 Apr 1, 2014 2:49 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 2, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    Afrezza was given the go-ahead by the AdCom yesterday. Long term safety issues including the risk of lung cancer and COPD weren't considered significant by the panel. Reduced hypoglycemia won the day as an argument for approval despite mediocre efficacy. This bodes well for the mu-opioid antagonist AdCom, as there have been no outright safety signals in either Relistor or naloxegol.

  • Reply to

    AdCom insight

    by dcxavier Mar 31, 2014 11:05 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Apr 1, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Thank you for your response, Mr. Webb.

    I like to think of this AdCom as a game of poker between SLXP, AZN and CBST.

    SLXP has the weakest hand. The AdCom resulted from the CRL for subcu (not oral) Relistor for chronic pain. SLXP is nominally presenting a body of evidence argument for its approval based on its uncontrolled Phase III plus years of use of the drug in palliative care. SLXP is then hoping the evidence will be strong enough to warrant future approval for oral Relistor. The subcu product will essentially be dead once an oral drug in this class hits the market.

    AZN did a one year 800+ patient one year open label safety Phase III, which NKTR followers are very familiar with.

    CBST should not be underestimated. They own Entereg, and are probably closer to the FDA on the long term safety issue than either SLXP or AZN. After discussion with the FDA, CBST implemented a 1400 patient one year double blind safety study for CB-5945. The study is fully enrolled and is expected to complete in December.

    I expect SLXP to fail in their quest to get the AdCom stamp of approval for their Relistor business plan. That leaves Relistor as a dead end product, unless... the AdCom votes to require a preapproval CV outcomes study for all drugs in the class. That levels the playing field, and leaves subcu Relistor the only approved drug in this class for years to come.

    It will be interesting to see where the AdCom draws the line for what constitutes a sufficient safety study for approval for long term use. That's where your MNKD comments seemed relevant to NKTR. A panel with strong GI and pain control interest would likely be focused on efficacy, while cardiologists would tilt the questioning to CV safety.

    I currently have no position in any of these stocks, but previously owned NKTR for years, sold when the NKTR-181 Phase II results were reported last fall.

  • Reply to

    AdCom insight

    by dcxavier Mar 31, 2014 11:05 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Mar 31, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    As far as I know, the panelists haven't been announced yet. Although the panel has been selected, because there is a date in June set. If the panel is dominated by GI specialists, I would expect the questioning to be more focused on efficacy, labeling, etc.

    AF does a good job live blogging FDA review panels. He will be covering the Afrezza review all day tomorrow.

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