***** The Rules *****
1. Pick one stock you think will do the best in January, 2014. Winner will be the one whose stock rises by the greatest percentage (or goes down the least if it comes to that).
2. Stock must be priced at $1 per share or greater at close on December 31, 2013. It doesn't have to be a lousy company, but those selections are encouraged.
3. Only one stock per person, and only one person per stock. First come, first served. It must be a stock. No options, warrants, leveraged/inverse ETF's, etc. Straight ETF's are OK.
4. Your selection must be made by 12:01 AM, January 2, 2014.
5. You will not be forced to hold your position until the end of January. At any point during the month, you can exit and your result will be final. If you declare sell during the trading session, your result will be based on the closing price that day. If you declare sell during non-trading hours, your result will be based on the closing price of the next trading day. If you go the whole month, your result will be based on the closing price on January 31, 2014.
6. Although not a requirement, it would be good if you could provide a profile of the company, why you think it is a good choice, and whether you are investing your own money in the stock.
7. Ongoing results will be posted semi-regularly during the month.
8. Good luck to all!
This is cross-posted on the NKTR board.
It's time for the annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest. It is a well known phenomenon that the previous year's worst performers often do exceptionally well in January. The general explanation is that they see large tax-related selling, and end up oversold. As a contest participant, your task is to identify which stock will do the best in the month of January. There is a prize, I will give a $100 donation to the charity of the winner's choice. The contest is open to all, but the competition will be tough, you are likely to be up against defending champion gladpick and *four time* champion rash_more. Full year performance from last year's contest will be posted later, if I don't forget.
Remember,"Cr-ppy Stock" Picking Contest, not "Cr-ppy" Stock Picking Contest.
Rules on next message. Yahoo (jerks) shortened the maximum message length.
According to the NKTR-102 poster from the Phase II single arm study, the preliminary estimate for median survival was 10.3 months from all patients/protocols. Remember that treatment doesn't end for patients in the Phase II when they progress, they move on to other drugs (like they are in the Phase III).
The Eribulin Phase III results, quoting from the paper, were as follows...
"762 women were randomly allocated to treatment groups (508 eribulin, 254 TPC). Overall survival was significantly improved in women assigned to eribulin (median 13·1 months, 95% CI 11·8-14·3) compared with TPC (10·6 months, 9·3-12·5; hazard ratio 0·81, 95% CI 0·66-0·99; p=0·041)."
I believe the two month number was chosen because a lesser survival is not likely to be statistically significant. Also, look at the range of survivals from the different TPC drugs, 9.3 to 12.5 months. You can bet that doctors have refined their skill at selecting third line drugs since the Eribulin study. Dr. Perez believes she can beat TPC including Eribulin by two months? My skepticism isn't based on an unfounded guess, it is based on formally released data.
Dr. Perez also convinced NKTR management to pay her a handsome sum of money to run the study. What do you think she is going to say?
How in the world did Dr. Perez conclude that NKTR-102 is likely to extend OS by two months over the physician selected best available treatment? It certainly can't be based on the single arm Phase II results, can it? I'm thinking the best NKTR could realistically hope for is non-inferiority with a superior side effect profile.
The term "interim data" is a misnomer. It's really a continue/discontinue statement. Unless the study is discontinued for some reason, NKTR will remain blinded to the patient outcomes.
There is nothing new to report. NKTR will remain blinded to the results for at least one year, except for the interim statement from the data monitoring committee.
Different stages in breast cancer treatment. Neratinib is for newly diagnosed patients prior to surgery. NKTR-102 is third line for MBC patients who cannot benefit from surgery. The drugs do not compete.
By extraordinary, I mean that NKTR-102 meets statistical significance for OS/HR superiority with only half the patients evaluated. The words "doesn't work" mean that TPC meets statistical significance for OS/HR superiority with only half the patients evaluated. Anything in the middle means the study continues.
The NKTR-102 interim report is going to come from the DMC, not NKTR. It will be one of the following three statements.
1. NKTR-102 demonstrates extraordinary efficacy, all patients will be switched to NKTR-102.
2. Results are indeterminate, study to continue.
3. NKTR-102 doesn't work, study is terminated.
Outcome (2) is most likely. With (2), NKTR will remain blinded to the patient outcomes.
No, haven't bought back in. Put a slug of the proceeds into the REIT MPW in the past month, which has a slightly lower return than NKTR from when I sold, the rest is still cash. I'm still wary of the two things hijacked mentioned in his more recent post, the AdCom meeting and a secondary.
ONCY announced Reolysin Phase II results for head and neck cancer today. AF shows how selective reporting and judicious use of subsets can make a failed study appear successful. Worth a read.
SLXP plan A for Relistor is to convince FDA that many years body of evidence for Relistor is sufficient to approve both subcu and oral for chronic pain, but AZN study is insufficient. Plan B is to convince FDA that preapproval CV outcomes study required for all non-hospice applications. If A and B fail, Relistor (subcu version) is relegated to niche applications and oral is dead.
$70M is factored into year end cash position. On the last CC, CFO John Nicholson said "As a reminder our year-end cash guidance includes the $70 million milestone payment from AstraZeneca for the acceptance of the U.S. NDA file for naloxegol which is expected this month."
What's important now is the March AdCom for mu-opioid antagonists. AZN/NKTR have been preparing diligently for it even though they haven't yet been invited to present. Now that the NDA is accepted, we'll see if an invitation occurs.
Here are two reasons why Canada runs acceptably to them. They have a free rider on prescription drug cost. They can price them at variable cost because the US picks up the fixed expense of drug development. Drug development expense includes costs for drugs that fail and never make the market. The US also is a relief valve for patients with the ability to pay and immediate need for medical procedures. Cities like Detroit, Buffalo and Seattle pick up a lot of high net worth Canadian patients. That window will shut if the US switches to single payer, there will be a lot of complaints if US citizens are forced to wait for resources that foreigners move ahead in line for.