It's what happens when you use a data mined subset from Phase 2 for a Phase 3 troal design.
-- "out of a concern that an earlier disclosure could have led to a premature buyout of NKTR."
hijacked, that comment is positively klausian!
The truth about NKTR and HR isn't what they say, it's what they don't say. There are always issues that aren't mentioned until failure occurs.
105 disappears without a trace after years of hype.
171 where are you?
181 fails Phase 2 efficacy after being compared with oxycodone.
192 fails Phase 1 safety(!) following numerous discussions about its unique properties.
The VG strategy appears to becoming a one-stop shop for communication services for small and medium businesses. They don't appear to be best-in-class in any one area. But the idea is to hit a cost/capabilities price point that competitors can't match. An integrated product set has the potential to reduce customer IT support expense.
CPaaS technology will take market share from 1-800 phone service. Rather than having to go to a phone and calling, customer will be able to click on webpage and talk directly through phone or tablet. Amazon already has that feature built into their Kindle, called the Mayday button. We have Amazon Prime, and my wife uses it to talk to Amazon about any problem she has with them. Nexmo helps VG build that capability into a business website.
Also, Forbes did an article yesterday about new VBS advertising campaign. Search for "Vonage Ad Campaign Claims Disruption Is Finally Coming To Video Calls".
Article from John Mauldin yesterday included a table that shows how far out the yield curve negative rates go in other countries.
20 years: Switzerland
10 years: Japan
9 years: Germany
8 years: Austria, Netherlands
7 years: Belguim, Finland, France, Sweden
5 years: Denmark, Ireland
3 years: Italy(!), Spain(!)
Lowest yield is Swiss 3 year at -0.94%. Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Finland and Denmark all have 30 year yields under 1%. He is predicting actuarial disaster for European insurers.
I've had some back and forth with some KMPH bulls about this. We are all familiar with the ongoing opioid/opiate addiction epidemic. A few years ago, the FDA provided guidance about what would constitute abuse deterrence in new opioid drugs. I believe that this guidance is now obsolete. Where I live, they are projecting 500 deaths due to overdose in an area of about one million people. Yikes! That's more than one per day. But the general problem isn't abuse of prescription drugs. With a crackdown on pill mills, prescription drugs are too expensive to acquire in abuse quantity illegally, and the existing abuse deterrents are difficult to work around. The problems are the cheap, powerful street drugs... heroin, black market fentanyl, and genuine weapon-grade drugs like W-18. The issue is no longer how to stop abuse of prescription drugs, it's now preventing the addiction to begin with.
Drugs like KMPH Apadaz have tremendous abuse deterrence but do nothing to prevent the addiction. That's why I think the drug will be a poor seller even if its abuse deterrence is recognized in its label. NKTR-181, with its slow crossing of the BBB, has the potential to avoid the initial addiction. One issue that needs to be addressed is the maximum 400 mg dose, which may not be particularly effective. I think the FDA is trying to get ahead of the curve, recognizing that higher doses may be in the cards. It will be interesting to see the structure of the new human abuse liability study, and whether the possibility of higher therapeutic doses will be discussed.
There are also new, non-addicting drugs in research/preclinicals. Keep an eye out for any of them to enter the clinic.
Nexmo is number two. Problem is that if you want an analogy, Nexmo is to Twillio as Bing is to Google. Nexmo is a distant number two. It's much harder to use and doesn't have all the features that some B2B customers demand. VG provides the external termination end that Twillio has to contract out (and is one of their few weaknesses), so that's a plus for Nexmo. Nexmo needs substantial investment to become competitive with Twillio in other areas.
A good deal for NKTR. It looks like they will get $30M of the $50M required for the study up front, so it works out to about $20M over the next 3 1/2 years out of pocket. Not much in the big picture. The wild card is the number of patients in the study, hopefully 350 holds. It's essential that the study suffice for both US and EMA approval.
Except for the PD-1 inhibitors, immunotherapy has been a virtual flop. See what happened to Rintega a few months ago. Provenge, anyone?
Both NKTR-102 and 105 were super superior curing cancer in mice. There may still be some poster presentations on the NKTR website.
Some math... 8K scripts times $150 wholesale is $1.2M per week, or about $60M per year. Need to kick it up an order of magnitude.
Not only is SNFCA deep in home construction loans, they are doubling down on mortgage servicing rights. In the MSR biz, you get to keep a portion of the monthly mortgage payment. Banks sell them off to companies like OCN and PHH. The idea is that you pay money up front to buy MSR's and get it back over time doing the collection. Problem is that in a falling rate environment people refinance and the MSR ends at that point. It's a losing business right now.
Another interesting NCE in the pipeline is TRVN oliceridine (TRV-130). It's first application is for specialized surgical/hospital use.