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Saga Communications Inc. Message Board

dcxavier 185 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 22, 1999
  • dcxavier by dcxavier Jan 30, 2015 10:32 PM Flag

    Company performance is very sensitive to US dollar strength.

    ===

    "While the impact of foreign exchange on total company sales and earnings in 2014 was very modest, as we enter 2015, the steep depreciation of both the euro and the Japanese yen represent a major financial headwind. Our earnings are exposed to the movement of these 2 currencies versus the dollar. Specifically, on the combined company, we estimate that every $0.01 change in the euro-dollar exchange rate will have an impact of approximately $1.5 million to $2 million EBITDA. And every JPY 1 change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have an EBITDA impact of approximately $0.5 million to $1 million. To put that in perspective, ranging the euro between $1.12 and $1.18, and the yen to between JPY 117 and JPY 121, we would expect to see a $40 million to $50 million headwind to EBITDA in 2015, or about $0.20 per share."

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 30, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    Congratulations of ofjames, winner of the 2015 Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest. It came down to the final day, as the top three stocks finished within four percent of each other. The month had its share of crappiness. There were financial issues with MHR and BTU, and management turmoil at SODI. Even the positive catalyst of a drug approval couldn't move RMTI.

    Let me know what charity I should direct the donation to, ofjames.

    Hope everyone enjoyed it. Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.94....-38.2%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.23....-19.5%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......56.37...+10.1%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.19......-2.1%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.79.....+5.0%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....110.14.....-7.3%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....104.83..+11.2%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.63.....+8.0%
    rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.64......-5.6%

    Total.......................................................................-4.3%

  • Eloctate sales in Q4 were $37M. Probably mostly North America since it received EMA approval in October. Next quarter will include all major markets. The Eloctate ramp is probably a good model for what to expect from BAX-855.

    It appears that these pegged factor 8's are a stopgap as companies try for a cure via gene therapy. BIIB has thrown its hat into the gene therapy ring.

    ===

    • In January 2015, Biogen Idec and San Raffaele Hospital announced they entered into a worldwide collaboration to jointly develop gene therapies for the treatment of both hemophilia A and B. The agreement will combine San Raffaele Hospital’s extensive expertise in creating vectors that deliver genetic material to cells with Biogen Idec’s deep understanding of hemophilia biology to potentially treat the underlying causes of hemophilia A and B.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 29, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    The group was barely up on a strong market day. VRTX fell nearly 6% as it received analyst downgrades. VRTX is generally considered fully valued at this price point. With only one day remaining, BOBE continues to hold a slight lead.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.99....-36.6%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.12....-20.9%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......57.29...+11.9%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.19......-2.1%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.41.....+1.3%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....114.14.....-3.9%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....104.18..+10.5%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.63.....+8.0%
    rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......15.06......-2.8%

    Total.......................................................................-3.9%

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 28, 2015 11:15 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    We didn't do well today, losing 2.8%. VRTX reported AH, beating on the top and bottom line (at least non-GAAP). United Health selected GILD's Harvoni as its preferred Hep C drug. BOBE hit a 52 week high and BTU a 52 week low. BOBE is now in the lead with two days to go.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.92....-38.9%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.10....-21.2%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......56.61...+10.6%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.21......-1.6%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.53.....+2.4%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....121.26....+2.1%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....102.45....+8.7%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.65.....+9.3% rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.52......-6.3%

    Total.......................................................................-3.9%

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 27, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    We did very well today, up 0.2% on a day that the market took a hit. This is despite the fact that BTU hit a trifecta of crappiness. The company missed earnings, lowered guidance and reduced the dividend. The competition remains very close. GALE snuck into the lead.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........2.14....-31.9%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.24....-19.4%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......56.97...+11.3%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.15......-3.0%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......11.07.....+7.7%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....123.67....+4.1%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....105.03..+11.4%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.71...+13.3% rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.97......-3.4%

    Total.......................................................................-1.1%

  • Reply to

    Perez interview- Better Irinotecan is here

    by pettitmb Jan 27, 2015 10:02 AM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 27, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    But, then again, Dr. Perez was quite surprised when Kadcyla failed its Phase 3 in advanced Her2+ breast cancer. That was despite stellar Phase 2 results. So we wait for BEACON completion.

  • dcxavier dcxavier Jan 27, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    Polls report high satisfaction with Obamacare. Maybe it's because not one single person has yet paid a penalty for not having health insurance. Not one single person has yet had their tax refund reduced for receiving too high a subsidy. Not one single person has paid a penalty for getting Medicaid when they were, in fact, ineligible. Like a tinhorn dictator, Obama decreed that the employer mandate (his employer mandate) would not be enforced. It's been all sweetness and light for the average Joe.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 26, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    The last week got off to a good start. The group was up 1.3%. RMTI announced that Triferic was approved by the FDA, but the stock finished lower. There are concerns that the approved Triferic label combined with the premium price might make dialysis providers reluctant to use it. BOBE hit a 52 week high. GILD maintains its lead, with GALE and BOBE very close behind.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.92....-38.9%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.67....-13.8%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......57.23...+11.8%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.15......-3.0%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.73.....+4.4%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....125.12....+5.3%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....107.11..+13.6%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.71...+13.3%
    rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.75......-4.8%

    Total.......................................................................-1.3%

  • dcxavier dcxavier Jan 26, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Roth Capital will pound the table for any and all potential investment banking customers.

  • dcxavier dcxavier Jan 26, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    Perez, Cortes, Awada et al get paid to run studies. They are always looking to expand the frontiers of knowledge. If the study succeeds, it's a feather in their cap and it helps them to recruit the next study sponsors. They have no direct financial interest in the outcome. NKTR-102 isn't one of those phony baloney drugs promoted by the biodreck companies, but as you note, the bar is very high. It won't hurt their reputation at all if a study fails as long as the study protocol and prosecution are righteous.

    There's an interesting story about medical and political corruption playing out in New York right now. Sheldon Silver, who has been NYS Assembly leader for the past twenty years, was indicted for bribery last week. I'm sure you are familiar with those non-stop obnoxious mesothelioma ads. Lawyers get $1.5M to $2M for every case that is resolved. Silver "works" part time for a NYC law firm that specializes in mesothelioma cases. He got the state to allocate money to the Columbia University Mesothelioma Research Center. In return for the lucre, Dr. Robert Taub, who heads the center, referred patients to Silver. Silver collected millions for simply handing over the names and phone numbers of the victims to the law firm. He did no other work on the cases. We all see politicians directing money to research and non-profits and think it's a good thing Ha!

  • There is an xkcd comic (#1478) that is perfect for the event. I wish I could provide a link, but Yahoo (jerks) doesn't allow that any more. Thanks to AF for pointing this out. BTW, the xkcd comics come with a non-commercial use license, so I don't feel guilty about reposting.

    P-value Interpretation Table

    0.001, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03 - Highly significant
    0.04, 0.049 - Significant
    0.05 - Oh #$%$. Redo calculations.
    0.051, 0.06 - On the edge of significance
    0.07, 0.08, 0.09, 0.099 - Highly suggestive, significant at the p less than 0.10 level
    0.1 and higher - Hey, look at this interesting subgroup analysis

  • dcxavier dcxavier Jan 25, 2015 8:40 PM Flag

    How about this 103 patient single arm Phase 2 from Dr. Perez?

    ======

    Patients and Methods

    MBC patients who experienced disease progression after one to three chemotherapy regimens, including at least one anthracycline- or taxane-based regimen, were randomly assigned to irinotecan in 6-week cycles comprising 100 mg/m2 weekly for 4 weeks, then a 2-week rest (weekly) or 240 mg/m2 every 3 weeks.

    Results

    The weekly arm had 52 assessable patients; the every-3-weeks arm had 51 assessable patients. In the weekly arm, the objective response (complete regression [CR] + partial regression [PR]) rate was 23% (one CR, 11 PR; 95% CI, 13% to 37%). Median response duration was 4.9 months (range, 1.9 to 15.9 months), and median overall survival was 9.7 months (95% CI, 8.0 to 14.2 months). In the every-3-weeks arm, the objective response rate was 14% (nine PR; 95% CI, 6% to 26%), median response duration was 4.2 months (range, 3.1 to 13.9 months), and median overall survival was 8.6 months (95% CI, 7.0 to 12.3 months). Treatment generally was well tolerated, especially in the weekly arm. Grade 3 to 4 adverse events with ≥ 10% incidence included neutropenia (29%) and diarrhea (17%) in the weekly arm and neutropenia (36%), vomiting (20%), dyspnea (18%), nausea (16%), and diarrhea (12%) in the every-3-weeks arm.

    Conclusion

    Irinotecan is active with good tolerability in refractory MBC. Irinotecan (especially weekly) warrants additional study as monotherapy and in combination regimens in this setting.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 23, 2015 9:27 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    The group had a good bounceback today, up 1%. BTU was downgraded by S&P. We're still waiting on the FDA decision for Triferic from RMTI. There is less than one week left, and GILD holds a very slight lead over GALE and BOBE.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.93....-38.5%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.30....-18.6%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......56.34...+10.1%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.15......-3.0%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.81.....+5.2%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....125.57....+5.7%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....105.54..+12.0%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.66.....+9.9%
    rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.62......-5.7%

    Total.......................................................................-2.6%

  • dcxavier dcxavier Jan 22, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    Part 2, safety and valuation.

    ===

    We acknowledge one key risk that can never be ruled out is safety. BLUE’s lentiviral-based approach relies on the insertion of DNA fragments into the patient’s own genomic DNA. Depending on the site of insertion, this approach runs the risk of altering the expression of other nearby genes, and in the worst case scenario causing cancer potentially. Given the integrative mechanism of BLUE’s viral vectors, we cannot rule out the potential for serious adverse events, namely leukemia, and note that the emergence of any treatment-related SAE could derail BLUE’s entire clinical program. However, we are encouraged by the fact that no evidence of insertional oncogenesis has been observed after 8 years of clinical experience with BLUE’s vectors. Given the checkered history of gene therapy, we believe long-term safety data will be absolutely necessary to assuage the lingering concerns of physicians, patients, and regulatory authorities.

    We are reinstating coverage of BLUE with a Buy rating and a price objective of $127, which is derived from a probability-adjusted NPV analysis of LentiGlobin in β-thalassemia ($80/share), LentiGlobin in sickle cell disease ($27/share), and Lenti-D in CCALD ($6/share), plus $14/share in cash. For beta-thalassemia, we assume a 45% probability that LentiGlobin will reach the market; we base this assumption on positive interim Phase I/II clinical data reported in four patients. For sickle cell anemia, we assume a 25% probability of success, as it is an earlier stage program but has been de-risked by results from the beta-thalassemia program. For CCALD, BLUE’s most advanced program, we assume a 60% probability that Lenti-D will reach the market, based on positive Phase I/II.
    concept data reported in four patients.

  • dcxavier dcxavier Jan 22, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Analyst is Ying Huang, who I believe is a recent hire. His report is much more detailed than the typical Merrill analysis. More on price analysis and safety in next post.

    ===

    With its proprietary lentiviral-based gene therapy platform, we believe BLUE is well on its way to revolutionize the treatment of severe genetic diseases. BLUE’s lead gene therapy candidate LentiGlobin is in development for two severe blood disorders, β-thalassemia and sickle cell disease. Initial proof-of-concept data in β-thalassemia are impressive, negating the need for blood transfusions in four out of four patients. However, one potential concern that remains is safety, namely the risk of leukemia. Importantly, no major safety issues have been reported after 8 years of clinical experience; further, we believe BLUE has taken the necessary measures to improve the safety profile of its vectors. Assuming long-term efficacy and safety remain consistent, we expect high uptake across all age groups and we estimate $2.5B in peak sales. We reinstate coverage with a Buy rating and a $127 PO.

    The next key event for the stock will be BLUE’s first efficacy readout in sickle cell disease (SCD), another devastating disease with high unmet need and few effective therapies available. Based on the current understanding of SCD pathophysiology, as well as supporting data from the β-thalassemia patients, we are optimistic that LentiGlobin will be effective in SCD. If favorable results suggest early signs of clinical benefit, we expect the stock to react positively. We estimate $1.9B in peak WW sales in SCD.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 21, 2015 9:58 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    Our group trailed the market badly today, down 1.2% while the market was up. GILD is now in the lead. There was no news I could find. Related to energy stocks, there is a good SA article summarizing the current situation, search for "Money Dries Up For Oil And Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start".

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.85....-41.1%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.77....-12.5%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......55.15.....+7.8%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.14......-3.3%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.36.....+0.8%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....125.08....+5.3%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....103.58....+9.9%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.60.....+6.0%
    rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.50......-6.5%

    Total.......................................................................-3.8%

  • Reply to

    Cleopatra

    by dona735 Jan 21, 2015 8:40 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 21, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    HER2+ breast cancer has its own special set of treatments. NKTR-102 would be used after failure.

  • Reply to

    102 Competitive Landscape

    by dona735 Jan 21, 2015 6:57 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 21, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    You can look at Eribulin to get a feel for sales if NKTR-102 BEACON succeeds. If you compile numbers from the 2013 Eisai annual report, it looks like Eribulin sales were 25B-30B yen, which roughly translates to about $300M. Give NKTR a home field advantage, and it wouldn't be surprising to see sales approach $500M for MBC after a few years.

    In other applications, it will compete directly with MACK's version of irinotecan MM-398. MACK has an advantage as it has already successfully formulated it in FOLFIRI, which is the main driver for irinotecan sales.

  • Reply to

    14th Annual Cr-ppy Stock Picking Contest

    by dcxavier Dec 19, 2014 9:02 PM
    dcxavier dcxavier Jan 20, 2015 10:10 PM Flag

    This is cross-posted on the KLIC board

    We did not fare well today, down 1.9%. The loss was due almost entirely to MHR. The stock was downgraded in the morning. After hours, MHR reported it is still in compliance with some loan covenants.

    Good luck to all!

    Entrant..................... Stock.... 12/31/14... Today... Change

    cow_4_beans............MHR..........3.14........1.96....-37.6%
    lonerunner_99...........BTU...........7.74........6.42....-17.1%
    flyktning....................BOBE.......51.18......55.39.....+8.2%
    dcxavier....................SODI..........4.28........4.14......-3.3%
    bugsisdog.................RMTI........10.28......10.59.....+3.0%
    gladpick....................VRTX.....118.80.....124.74....+5.0%
    ofjames.....................GILD........94.26.....103.78..+10.1%
    mwalk65...................GALE.........1.51........1.70...+12.6%
    rbtears10..................NKTR.......15.50......14.85......-4.2%

    Total.......................................................................-2.6%

SGA
43.56+0.56(+1.30%)Mar 27 4:01 PMEDT