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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

ddbikessamsara 66 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2015 8:19 PM Member since: Oct 5, 2004
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  • Reply to

    More Afrezza users reporting great A1C scores!!

    by end2war Jul 16, 2015 6:41 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jul 16, 2015 8:19 PM Flag

    Human biology is the same everywhere. With only rare exceptions, Afrezza will work this way for EVERY patient.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Apple...then Buffet & Berkshire, hmmm...

    by steveinanutshell Jul 7, 2015 10:48 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jul 8, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Lowest cost of energy in the world and it is only going to get cheaper. There will be even more emphasis on clean energy as climate change continues to rear it's ugly head. Solar will dominate the world, mainly because of pure economics (cheapest and guaranteed pricing for decades) AND because it is cleanest. FSLR panels only going to get cheaper and more efficient - best solar company in the world today. "First trillion dollar company" per Michael Liebreich. I'm holding in my IRA for 10 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Symphony Script for week ending 6/26

    by jxkchicago Jul 4, 2015 2:53 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jul 4, 2015 7:50 PM Flag

    Remember, the biggest part of ANY weekly script count is the end result of a process that got started at least 8 weeks ago. The new scripts we are seeing now are from a "demand event" (patient decided they wanted to try Afrezza and called for an appointment) that began in the middle of April. That is when all the eye-popping results began getting published, articles were appearing etc. By May/June demand was getting ever stronger, then of course ADA created a major wave of interest. I bet script counts will top 1,000 by the end of the summer easily. Of course by then DTC will be generating another wave of demand - critical mass of patients with the lowest A1c's of their lives will be reached and the word of mouth etc. from patients and their doctors will quickly get the exponential growth ball rolling. People will forget all about these early days - by the end of the year the demand will really be exploding - guranteed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 26, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    Well, your doctor is definitely behind the curve. Even so it just further illustrates the point that there is MUCH greater actual demand, both pent-up and actually underway, than the script counts show. It will take weeks or months for this to show up but it is coming. DTC will add even more to the backlog. We are still months away at least for even a remotely "normalized" script base for comparisons. Way too much noise from samples etc. to have a clear idea right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 26, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Most people completely miss the point with the Symphony data anyway. In these early days with the inherent 8 week delay (or more) it takes to actually GET a prescription from the time you start TRYING to get that script, the weekly script numbers are stale by at least that 8 week time frame. A customer gets his script from the doctor today after first pursuing the idea 8 weeks ago. He takes it to the pharmacy, who fills it and reports the sale in Symphony. That means the script is by default at least 8 weeks old so has nothing to do with indicating where actual demand sits as of TODAY. The latest Symphony scripts do NOT capture ANY of the demand that began in Mid-April through Mid-June - and that is exactly when the biggest part of the demand wave began. Scripts will begin increasing in a meaningful manner when that starts showing up. Repeat - "CURRENT" script counts are still only reflecting the scripts for patients that are JUST NOW getting them after starting their journey before mid-April. The biggest part by far of the demand wave has not even hit the count yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 22, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Hi Doc. You should go to mnkdproboards. It is a very well mannered and well-informed group there. Much better reception to intelligent posts and moderated to prevent the sort of madness you see on YMB. Just something to consider. Thanks for your excellent efforts here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Al Mann's comments on SNY

    by ddbikessamsara Jun 21, 2015 4:59 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 21, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    Kindly note "Sanofi had already done a great deal of work preparing for the launch -- they started EVEN BEFORE we had signed the agreement."

    Sanofi was not only so interested in Afrezza they were willing to guarantee $900 million in progress payments they WERE ALREADY PLANNING THE LAUNCH before they had even signed the agreement. I would say anybody doubting SNY's commitment is just ignorant - and that goes for the mighty Goldman Sachs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Jun 21, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    "To be able to service a larger segment of the global diabetes community we have recently entered into a partnership with Sanofi to commercialize Afrezza. Sanofi is an enormous organization which serves diabetes patients throughout most of the world -- far more than MannKind could ever have done on our own."

    "Sanofi had already done a great deal of work preparing for the launch -- they started even before we had signed the agreement. They have set up an extensive team for the commercialization and that team is hard at work in planning the launch."

    From an interview with Al last September. Who do you believe - the man who more than any other is intimately familiar with the details of things or agenda-laden hacks blaring out what a terrible deal was made?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This man is one of the most extraordinary people I have ever seen. Self-made, began by powering space satellites. Moved into cardiac pacesetters,then invented the insulin pump. Artificial hearing with cochlear implants. Artificial vision with Second Sight. Afrezza, which is already demonstrating diabetic outcomes never before achievable. Wildly successful under any measurement you can use, and most of it stems from a sincere desire to make life better for those who are suffering. Truly a visionary who's ideas have been one success after another and improved the health and lives of countless millions. His detractors are snide and smarmy "journalists", hedge fund hacks and "analysts" who hide behind their models and have never contributed one single thing toward making the world a better place.

    I know which side of the story I would rather be on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What value is SNY bringing?

    by sayhey24 Jun 20, 2015 7:28 AM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 20, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Absurd. SNY brings a seasoned, international sales presence. They bring a well-established distribution channel, supplier relationships, marketing prowess and connections, broad experience at the FDA and other regulators globally, and CASH. No way could MNKD build the infrastructure required to really distribute Afrezza on a large scale. Afrezza is not "selling itself" It is selling because SNY has been out to doctors, given the introduction to the product, given samples - got it into the position where it COULD sell. MNKD has already received $200 million and stands to receive another $700 million in pure profit, cash in hand just by fulfilling their production duties. That cash has allowed them to pay off debt and continue pursuing TS applications. If not for that cash and SNY they would be broke and dead in the water.

    They get 35% of a partnership profit that should end up extremely lucrative with time with NONE of the marketing and distribution costs - which would have been prohibitive, probably impossible since MNKD was already cash-strapped and debt laden.

    It would have been completely stupid for MNKD to try to go it alone - everyone in the world knew they were going to have to partner up and SNY is top tier - I am SO tired of everybody whining about things when the product has barely been on the market 4 months. If you "investors" aren't willing to have some patience and let the story run it's course you don't even deserve to make serious money - because that is what will be made by holding this stock for a few years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Best script numbers yet

    by joeblow180 Jun 19, 2015 5:13 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 19, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    Bear in mind the current count a) does not capture a good number of actual scripts written - many of the big chains do not report scripts at all. b) does not capture Scripts in Process - i.e. how many patients are actively trying to get a script but have not yet even had a chance to see the doctor due to backlog. A busy practice can have a waiting period of 3 months. Give it a few more months to get the current backlog processed - but of course by then DTC will be driving an exponentially GREATER demand wave. Current script counts are what you see trickling through a small hole in the dam. What happens when the dam breaks? That is exactly why Sanofi has soft-launched this. They had to be sure resources were available to deal with the deluge - they were not concerned with the trickle. Things are now approaching the "real", hard launch and these very early months will soon be forgotten.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 19, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    The insulin is still good - tested 100%. It is NOT currently certified by the FDA. Matt said that process takes time but is not particularly burdensome. It seems a no-brainer that they WOULD get it certified as soon as practicable since it is all paid for and the COGS on Afrezza would be pretty great since insulin is the main cost. They have said repeatedly it is enough to support $10 billion in sales. I can't figure out why they are paying someone else to provide insulin instead of getting that stockpile certified.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 18, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    M O N E Y is the reason. Between the massive short position (which we KNOW pull all sorts of devious schemes to further their interests) and the entrenched big pharmas who are VERY concerned about this miraculous new product that will directly take money out of THEIR pockets it seems likely there would be pressure to suppress any and all good news about Afrezza. There is certainly the OPPOSITE - every day another hit piece "article" or story that basically omits the real story of best ever HbA1c along with massive quality of life improvements.

    One can hope Sanofi has just been waiting to get everything lined up - education, production etc. before they begin the hard launch. Commission a medical writer to do a beautiful summary of the non-diabetic lives many of the new adopters are enjoying, show some pics of needles vs Afrezza inhaler - they could do a lot and my bet is they will once they feel the time is right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Statistical certainty

    by ddbikessamsara May 31, 2015 1:03 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 17, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    Patient reports continue to surface and - guess what - they are reporting the same results as Sam and his group. Best A1c's ever. Surprised - NOT. Afrezza will work this way for everyone - basic biology is not going to vary much patient to patient.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 17, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    Hard to know what may break shorts. Hard to know for sure how many shorts there ARE. Naked shorts are in the number but will never be covered since they are phantom shares.

    As to script counts, one would expect them to increase dramatically as the summer goes by. With a minimum (so far - it IS getting better) delay of 8 weeks in the early months almost ANY "new" script is the END point of a process that likely began 8 weeks (or more) ago. The demand curve for April-May in all likelihood was much greater than Feb-Mar but the "current" script count is still mainly from the Feb-Mar group of patients. Take the June 5th script count and go back 8 weeks and the "new" scripts are coming in from early April demand at best. Simple logic - if a much higher demand rate was created in April-May - as would seem likely - and that demand has NOT yet hit the script count - which is also likely - future scripts MUST be much higher as well. Time will tell if that occurs and what the market reaction will be. Just have to wait and see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sam (affrezzauser) has a blog he set up detailing his journey with Afrezza and he posted on Twitter that he has now had hits from almost every country in the world on his blog. How many people now around the world know about the amazing benefits of Afrezza? Sam is just amazing - as a human being and truly one of the best Afrezza ambassadors in the WORLD!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 14, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    The more consumers who try, the more consumers who get the same results and post articles/tweets and whose doctors pass on the great results to their colleagues. Literally unstoppable once it gets rolling - WHO would ever inject again if they get BETTER results with one simple in-draw of breath? It is so simple it is almost hard to get your head around it.

    I've always felt it odd that a smoker, who inhales a known carcinogen willingly every single day with no concern at all - would hesitate to use Afrezza. It is only in the lung for microseconds before it dissolves completely leaving no trace it was ever there. Entire daily dose has far less matter entering the lung than a single cigarette. Completely counter-intuitive and just because it is on the label seems a stretch that a smoker won't be able to get it. They want better control and to avoid needles as much as anyone else.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The new paradigm is beginning

    by ddbikessamsara Jun 14, 2015 2:36 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 14, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    Might I mention that Netflix also completely disrupted the industry. Blockbuster had been the undisputed king of the heap and Netflix sent them to the dustbin of history. Plenty of naysayers proved wildly, spectacularly wrong. Growing internationally now after complete dominance of the US market. Is there a small biotech with revolutionary products for a gigantic market this may remind you of?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Jun 14, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    I remember about 7 years ago I was a Netflix subscriber for DVD's. It was so great to get DVD's in the mail, and be able to return them just by resealing the return envelope and putting it back in the mailbox. It would be a 3 day turnaround or so to get the next one. Loved it. Then they started the instant view streaming and the very first time I used it I was hooked. I didn't have to mess with any envelopes at all, or dirty DVD's that wouldn't play, ZERO wait time. I remember thinking at the time this was the future of watching videos. Of course that is EXACTLY what happened and Netflix stock has been one of the biggest investment winners in history.

    Afrezza is setting up to be the exact same story. It is simply better in EVERY measurable way. First and foremost the KEY goal of reducing HbA1c levels. That is the universally accepted measure of any diabetic treatment success - how well does it control the glucose cycle? We are seeing direct, documented and irrefutable evidence that Afrezza is delivering HbA1c readings never before achieved on ANY insulin regimen.
    No matter what they tried, no matter how diligently they monitored things and tried to time it all with subcutaneous analogs they have NEVER been able to get A1c's like this. Many are now reporting they are living like non-diabetics - relieved of the necessity to count carbs, knowing they can correct rapidly if needed, you don't need me to tell you since the stories are all over. These amazing results are being posted by both T1's and T2's. Add to that the unprecedented ease of use. By now everybody has to have seen the videos (thank you Eric and Sam!!) and realize just the delivery system alone is a new paradigm.

    I've been saying for some time now that the laws of statistics don't lie and that the results of this early adopter group are clearly transferable to the patient population at large. Sanofi knows this - that's why they are beginning the trials to prove it. The future is Afrezza

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Afrezza vs Novolog vs Humalog

    by kimi_held Jun 13, 2015 4:44 AM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 13, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    ymphony is just a database of participating pharmacies. The big chains like CVS, Walgreen, Walmart, do NOT participate in Symphony. The largest percentage of prescription written are not reflected in the Symphony numbers. Afrezza can be gaining share - SHOULD be gaining share for obvious reasons. I am willing to bet there are at least 200% more Afrezza scripts than Symphony shows. I use CVS for most of my prescriptions but a script there does not show up in Symphony

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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