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Weatherford International plc Message Board

ddbikessamsara 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 20, 2015 3:00 PM Member since: Oct 5, 2004
  • Reply to

    All 5 star ratings on WebMD

    by ddbikessamsara Mar 20, 2015 1:38 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Mar 20, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    Come to think of it - one can NEVER find any sources saying anything bad about Afrezza other than from financial weasels like Feurskunk and Goldmine Sucks trying to manipulate the stock price. The drug itself is an immense boon to people suffering and it will only be a question of time until word of mouth and the actual drug superiority gets lots of headlines as well as lots of sales.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Mar 20, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    Getting good reviews everywhere I can see. Watch the videos on the Forbes article and read the amazing results being experienced on the Affrezzauser twitter and articles. This is not a question of IF, merely WHEN. Blockbuster a-comin' - just hold tight.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by jmf0386 Mar 4, 2015 4:04 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Mar 4, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Not in the press release - should come out in the call. All time high backlog and strong momentum should make for good guidance I would think.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by jmf0386 Mar 4, 2015 4:04 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Mar 4, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Looks pretty good to me. Huge revenue beat + beat eps by .02. Gross margin improvements, all time backlog high. I'll bet the call is enthusiastic - should be up AH and tomorrow I would think. Upgrades on the way I would also think.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    penny stock pushers

    by georgjungle Feb 13, 2015 10:20 AM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Feb 26, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    Funny how a small stock like this gets more spammers than almost any board around. Not many "real" posters doing much. I bought in recently after it dropped back into the mid $3's. There are a number of big institutions holding this stock and it seems to me with good execution they can get things back on track. It doesn't seem to me the market has disappeared, they just lost focus trying to do multiple things and lost track of the real bread and butter. I like the new CEO and believe the market is there for SREV. Lot of cash on the balance sheet and if they execute well no reason this can't get back to double digits. Institutions will be pushing for a sale of the company is my guess.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Missed the Revenue Guidance on the call?

    by lottaluckeh66 Feb 9, 2015 5:29 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Feb 10, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    Interesting indeed! I was a bit nervous since I had a much larger position than I should have - just couldn't resist adding more down around $7. The guidance was ok but nothing stellar and knowing the history of this stock I would not have been surprised to see a selloff into the $6's. Sold half my position at a decent gain today and keeping the other half for long-term. Hope it went well for you today -

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Missed the Revenue Guidance on the call?

    by lottaluckeh66 Feb 9, 2015 5:29 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Feb 9, 2015 8:17 PM Flag

    Yep. This has turned into a longer-term holding. Plenty of cash and the future is promising so I see no reason to sell at these levels. I think it would make a great acquisition - merge some admin and R&D functions with a larger player and this would be a very profitable acquisition. I'm holding - lots of upside with patience and the buyout is always a possibility.

  • Reply to

    Missed the Revenue Guidance on the call?

    by lottaluckeh66 Feb 9, 2015 5:29 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Feb 9, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    Revenue guidance $270-290 Million for 2015. They have cut out a lot of 3rd party equipment sales which had 0 margin but made revenues higher in the past. That makes revenues look lighter now but they have replaced it with much higher margin gear of their own. Cash flow for 2015 projected break-even to positive. Slow but steady progress it seems and there are always wild cards for new deals coming in - they stated numerous times they were being conservative.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jan 26, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Last time it hit this level - in 2011 - it proceeded to quadruple over the next year. This is poor execution, not lack of demand for the products. Just get the marketing fixed and that is not a difficult thing to do. Plenty of cash, no debt, good product demand, and 5 year low is a pretty compelling buy signal to me. Strong buyout candidate as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Link to Rockov's involuntary sale

    by ease98a Jan 22, 2015 11:57 AM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jan 22, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Directly from the form 4 : "Units sold involuntarily. These units were held as collateral for a loan and were sold as a result of a decline in the Issuer's unit price."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jan 22, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Absolutely absurd statement. Directly from the form 4 : "Units sold involuntarily. These units were held as collateral for a loan and were sold as a result of a decline in the Issuer's unit price."

    He obviously had put the units up as collateral for a loan. When the unit price declined as a result of market forces the lender forced the sale to protect their own interests. Nothing whatsoever to do with Rockov's own view of either his company's prospects or his outlook for oil prices.

    It just drives me crazy when people who know nothing start throwing out ignorant statements.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Dec 30, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    I'm looking at the Q3 summary BBEP filed on 11/5/2014. Here's a rough, very simplified projection - EXCLUDING QRE since not enough data yet for that;

    For Q3 2014 they sold 1.904 million barrels of oil, or 21,155 bpd. Looking down further at the hedges in place for 2015 I see they have a total hedged oil volume of 18,433 bpd at $93.61. Just for a simple picture I am saying that $93.61 is the total average price they would have received this year. Now assume the same level of production for 2015 as the Q3 average - 21,155 bpd.

    21,155-18,433 bpd hedged at $93.61 leaves 2,722 bpd unhedged and sold at market prices. Since nobody really knows I'm just throwing out $50 as the market price per barrel for 2015. So they would have a revenue reduction in 2015 of $43.61 ($93.61 avg '14 price less $50 '15 market price) per barrel x 2,722 unhedged bpd or $118,706 per day. For the year that is $43.4 million less in oil revenues. Oil is about 82% of the revenue base.

    For the 9 months YTD Q3 total revenues were $659 million. Again rough and dirty annualize that to get approximately $879 million in total revenues for 2014. 82% of that or $720 million would be oil sales. $43.4 million less oil sales from above on that $720 million = 6.03% decline. Assume even a higher decline for the other components of NGL and gas and say even a 10% overall revenue decline from the 2014 annualized estimate of $879 million. That's a revenue drop of $88 million. While not pleasant by any means it is hardly a catastrophic development. I don't think it will be that bad because gas is also well-hedged and I have a hard time believing oil will stay at these levels more than a few months at the longest.

    While admittedly a very rough estimate that leaves out the QRE impact it gives me a sense that even with $50 oil for the full year they are not going into the disaster zone.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Dec 29, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    BBEP had a $146 million gain on derivatives in Q3. That's when oil was still over $90. That same level of hedging PLUS QRE's - which was stronger than BBEP - should have been in effect during Q4 as well. With oil prices cratering like they did in Q4 these guys could conceivably double the Q3 gain - maybe $300 million. I admit I am not a specialist on hedging but common sense tells me the Q4 gain HAS to be pretty big. Derivative gains are a component of EBITDA, thus one of the big determinants both of distibutable income and debt covenants. They are also nicely hedged for 2015 as pointed out in another post.

    It would appear to me that just for EBITDA purposes the hedges are going to cover the distribution as well as debt covenant concerns. Again I am no specialist in the area but unless this oil price stays around for well over a year there does not appear to me to be any major problem. Anyone more knowledgeable than me feel free to chime in. The distribution will run them a little over $100 million cash per quarter. If they notch a $300 million gain on derivatives for Q4 does anyone know how much of that converts to cash? I assume there is a counterparty somewhere that has to pay off - it can't all just be accounting entries.

    Anyway, just opening a topic that maybe some people more knowledgeable about the hedging story may be able to build on. I know Harold Hamm and Continental Resources cashed out their hedges at a massive gain and intend to ride out the downturn at current prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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