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Brightcove Inc. Message Board

ddbikessamsara 144 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2015 8:19 PM Member since: Oct 5, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Excellent article - give it a read

    by ddbikessamsara Jun 12, 2015 6:49 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 12, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    Be sure to click on the links in that article. The comparison of the injections vs Eric's quick draw on his Dreamboat at the ball game is PRICELESS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Excellent article - give it a read

    by ddbikessamsara Jun 12, 2015 6:49 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 12, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    That article pretty much sums it all up - why I invested to begin with:
    "a product that allows users to both lower their HbA1c's to levels they have never achieved - in many cases non-diabetic levels - AND does so with a simple delivery system that dramatically increases the daily quality of life of a patient - will capture a significant share of the global insulin market."

    Look at Twitter - the place is crazy with Afrezza lovers. Matt has said every patient who has tried it loves it. Unstoppable over the long term. Remember this has not even been on the market 4 months yet. It can take that much time just to get your first appointment with a busy doctor. It's all happening - Symphony is a very poor gauge of anything other than a script picked up today. Gotta be serious scripts pending - how many doctors have backlog they can't get to right now? Just takes time to work through but it's happening.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Jun 12, 2015 6:49 PM Flag

    Good summary of results and market potential (http://mnkd.proboardsDOTcom/thread/2749/article-rejected-who-guesses-why)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 12, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    All well and good, but current script count does not equal current demand. In most cases the "new" scripts we see are from patients who made appointments with their endo weeks ago. Once they waited weeks to see the endo, then found they needed to get the FEV1 test, did that test, got insurance stuff straightened out, NOW they get the script written and take it to the pharmacy where it gets filled. THIS is the point where the data is captured in Symphony. So a "new" script is actually the end point of the entire process and as such what we are seeing hit today is from demand that got started 8 weeks ago when the initial appointment got scheduled. I am not at all saying this is bad - I think demand is building strongly. The further we get into the summer the script counts should be showing even better growth than this because the scripts we are seeing now are coming from patients who started the "journey" back in March - still VERY early in the game. April-May-June is when the word really started getting out, Sam and his group started posting results, Twitter was buzzing, Amy T wrote her article etc. THAT is the big demand wave and scripts from that will be showing up soon. 8 weeks from the time you make your appointment til the time you get the script has been the norm. 8 weeks before June 5th was April 5th - so even the NEWEST scripts we see are from before the biggest demand wave began. Of course Symphony does not even capture the biggest part of scripts because it does not include the BIG chains like CVS, Walgreen, Walmart etc. I think actual demand is WAY more than this weeks Symphony data.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0R3C8yUJtHM&feature=youtu.be

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Jun 10, 2015 7:39 PM Flag

    How long is it until someone like Dr. Bode publishes an article that clearly shows Afrezza has proven to be the best option they have ever seen for lowering HbA1c levels? He has the statistics in hand from his own group of patients - we see the evidence every single day on Twitter. That is ALL it would take. It would in no way violate any laws or get in trouble with the FDA - he is just stating the actual evidence he has seen from his group of patients. ONE article from a respected doctor in a major publication stating that his patients are all showing non-diabetic glucose levels after being on Afrezza for 90 days. It drives me nuts that MNKD is essentially a punching bag for Feurstein and all the other hack "journalists" who day in and day out slam the company, without fail omitting ANY positive data. When is MNKD finally going to fight back and just drop the big one on all the roaches? They have the most effective insulin ever seen, and it does it with no needles and the accompanying bruising, scar tissue, psychological stress that go along with injections. Why are they not paying a journalist to write about this the way the shorts pay for their hit pieces? We should crowd-source a journalistic piece really showcasing the benefits of Afrezza and the easy to use feature with no needles and get some testimonials from the users. Anybody in?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Jun 10, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    It is mystifying to me how, when we see a legitimate medical miracle unfolding before us that nobody at MNKD or SNY is spreading the word. Patients like Sam, Eric, Afrezzaguy and many others now are showing A1c numbers in the non-diabetic, normal range. Unheard of, never before achieved with ANY insulin regime. WHY are Twitter and message boards the only place this information is available ?

    It is true, factual , and documented with CGM readings. There should be a paper on this by now. At minimum an article from the likes of a Dr. Bode or similar "thought leader".
    A single article in a prominent publication along with a Youtube video would be the single most effective means of both advertising the incredible benefits as well as educating the patients and doctors. True, factual, and documented - no blowback from lawyers or the FDA.

    It's incredibly frustrating to watch the likes of Feurstein and the other morons get away with basically writing any garbage they wish any time they wish and never, ever any sort of press from MNKD or SNY. If it was widely known what is happening with actual patients instead of the endless talk about labeling etc. the uptake trajectory would be unstoppable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 10, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    Nope, everything else plays fine (CNBC etc plenty of sound) - thanks.

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 10, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    For some reason my system is not playing the call. Weird - Windows 7, Adobe Flash - never had any problems before. Any suggestions? Thanks!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 9, 2015 4:41 PM Flag

    That was as of 5/29 when the stock was still at $5. Gotta believe a lot of them started covering on the breakout toward $6 last week on high volume and the overwhelmingly positive A1c numbers coming out all over the place. Over 100 million shares volume since then and unless they are just suicidal one would think a decent part of that was short covering. Guess we will see in another 2 weeks.. SO many chances for something great to come out literally any day - have to believe shorts are losing MUCH more sleep than longs recently.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Script counts

    by ddbikessamsara Jun 9, 2015 3:29 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 9, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Those are numbers that are ACTUAL prescriptions issued. If you see your doctor, get the FEV1 test done, get insurance approved THEN get your prescription filled at the pharmacy it gets tallied on Symphony - those are the numbers we are seeing. They do not measure anything but actual physical prescriptions written at the pharmacy - NOT the demand for patients who are in the process of getting prescriptions.

    If on April 1st you decided you want to try Afrezza, then you need to a) get your appointment with the doctor - many patients have to wait 6 weeks just to get that appointment. Then b) you find you have to get a FEV test but your endo doesn't have the spirometer and sends you to another office to get that test. By the time you get the test and the results from that test, and then deal with insurance stuff - this again seems to be taking another 2 to 3 weeks. So that April 1st patient is very close by now but STILL does not have the actual prescription , and so is NOT in the Symphony data. See where this is headed? For this reason the ACTUAL prescription numbers from Symphony just can't possibly have much at all of the demand from people in April - May who are pursuing prescriptions. I still think a very big wave of demand is on the way but won't be in Symphony for some time yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara by ddbikessamsara Jun 9, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    The thing to recognize when looking at Afrezza Rx data is the timing delay inherent in the process. Although these delays will doubtlessly decrease in the future as the spirometry issue is whittled down and the insurance stuff is smoothed out - for now it is safe to assume there is still somewhere in the 2-3 month range before a patient actually gets a script that gets tallied in Symphony. With that in mind the Symphony data we see today is anywhere from 2 to 3 months BEHIND the actual demand curve. I.E someone beginning the "script journey" in April would STILL not have a prescription in hand today that would be captured in Symphony with this sort of inherent delay. By default the current script counts CANNOT be comprised of much more than the February group of adopters with some March patients as well. Probably a sprinkling of others in there that may have gotten some expedited treatment but in my mind the biggest part of the April-May-June demand is in the pipeline. As that wave of demand funnels into the actual Symphony script count data I think there will be some very significant percentage increases showing up this summer. It's a pretty simple concept once you walk through the logic: the Symphony data as of 5/29 falls WAY short of measuring actual demand in the pipeline.

    So there is significant script growth coming just from the April and May group of adopters, the vast majority of which can't really be showing up in Symphony yet. Then of course there are 15,000 + influential persons on their way back from ADA who know about Afrezza now. DTC to begin soon. The big script growth is coming, just have to wait a bit longer for it to hit the Symphony data.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 9, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    Well said - I think the one flaw in your post is "that people still listen". WHO is listening? Stock action today is just a normal pullback after a huge run up recently. Healthy action, basing for next move up. Fraudstein is just a sideshow clown - NOBODY is listening.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 9, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    It is clear his "articles" have no power at all and he has become irrelevant. Not that he ever WAS relevant, but in conjunction with his short cronies they could still steal from unwitting small fry. The market is looking forward at MNKD now, not in the rear view mirror.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The shorts are greedy, mean-spirited and poor excuses for human beings but they are (generally) not stupid. Anybody that sees a group of patients unanimously reporting the best A1c's EVER in their lives, numbers in the non-diabetic range HAVE to see the writing on the wall. These A1c numbers have never, ever been achieved before no matter WHAT insulin regime was used - before now. The entire POINT of diabetes treatment is to lower A1c's. The numbers we are seeing amount to a cure - not perfect but the best ever seen and the quality of life from that is a dramatic increase. Sam has made the direct comment that for him it HAS been a cure. Everyone he knows is reporting the best results of their lives. The word is already out and spreading like wildfire. Doctors are NOT going to be able to ignore this and patients are going to demand it.
    THAT is what matters - THAT is why the shorts are soiling themselves. What is an effective cure that delivers the holy grail of non-diabetic A1c's worth? That will be decided by the market, not by pathetic smarmy journalists.

    The AF and Cramer clownshow is just that - a show produced by frauds and run by clowns. The time when they could really make an impact is over.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No way around it...

    by highlowsel Jun 8, 2015 4:36 PM
    ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 8, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Hi Highlow. We've both been around for awhile - I've been reading your posts for years. A couple of years ago I was trading MU for pennies when it was in the $5's. I kept thinking I would take a long-term position but never did. I made about $10 K trading it and finally moved on. Of course I ended up missing the REAL action from $5 to $36. MNKD is smelling the same way to me - I know it has extraordinary potential and I just can't bring myself to trade it now.

    Were you around for the old VLNC story? I was there in 1999 when the sharks shorted it down into the $3's with their convertible debt story. Turned around and ran from the $3 range to $39 in 7 months - Oct 99 to April 2000 when the Nasdaq bubble burst.

    The point for me is it DOES happen - I have been in stocks where it has happened. I see the same sort of potential here. ALL MNKD needs to do is show some substantial scripts with continued miracle stories of non-diabetic A1c's. Shorts go away and the market begins to project the future. What is a product that has shown itself to be a virtual "cure" worth? That is what will be decided over the next couple of years and I intend to be there for the ride up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 8, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    They do not own shares yet - only the right to convert at $6.80. They could sell the stock short (all shorting IS is selling shares you do not yet own and hoping to replace them with shares acquired later at a lower price) and get $7.00 right now. Then they convert and use those shares to replace the shorted shares. It locks in the $.20 profit they have right now. Or they may wait until August hoping for an even greater share price - it's their decision.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 8, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    They can convert any time they wish. They could sell the stock short right now and get the proceeds, then convert in August or any time they choose and cover with those shares. Profit locked in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ddbikessamsara ddbikessamsara Jun 8, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Apologies - $100 Million bond issue, 14.7 Million additional shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Those holders can convert at $6.80 per share. Minimal dilution at 14.7 additional shares, MNKD keeps $100 million in cash and the debt goes off the balance sheet, replaced by equity. By then of course we will be seeing signficant script growth as the pent-up demand (remember there is has been AT LEAST a 2-month delay from the time you decide you want to try Afrezza until the time you actually pick up the script at the pharmacy and it is captured in Symphony. This means even demand begun in late March has yet to show up in the script count) hits in conjunction with even MORE demand from the ADA (15,000+ influential persons just exposed to Afrezza) and DTC. Enjoy the summer folks!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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