someone step up to the plate on this thing. i know those quarterly reports are scary and yes there will likely be more development-related earnings write-offs, but you buy at these levels and hold for 5-10 years and you're likely to make out really well. obviously no guarantees, but the risk/reward is getting pretty darn attractive.
who thought that with the great recession, high unemployment, etc., this would be a growth business, plus not correlated with the business cycle, therefore a great way to disperse risk. oops. what a dud.
There's a lot to like about the GEO story, the fact that the business is not really correlated with the business cycle, the international exposure, the growth potential, merger synergies and increasingly the valuation, but this stock just has not performed for a considerable time. I know that the pipeline of contracts is attractive, just hope they start getting some awards. Waiting on a stock for 3-6 months is one thing, waiting for 18-24 months becomes a lot tougher. And they seem to continually get "dinged" for minor perceived negatives, but get no credit for future potential (but yet unrealized) positives.
The last 18 months have been very disappointing for this stock. Company still faces an uncertain spring selling season and continuing commodity cost pressures but the last quarter's results were somewhat encouraging. Given how low the P/E multiple is, I'm wondering if anyone thinks that in 12-18 months' time, investors may have a different view of this company's prospects?
Why own this instead of Boeing? The last 18 months have been pretty disappointing. Of course that could change but is there reason to expect that it will?
what's up with this stock? earnings have doubled this year, justifying the stock price move. unlike other stocks that have just experienced multiple expansion, this stock seems to deserve its move. but for some reason it's been underperforming since the end of july. earnings estimates for next fiscal year still look way to low. yet even on consensus estimates, it trades at a big discount to SMG and PETM.
this isn't the only one where the shorts will get burned by not having done real work and simply shorting something b/c it looks expensive and they don't understand the fundamentals.
Occurred intraday which is why the stock dropped 30 cents around 1pm but apparently it bounced right back. I wonder what those 1q #s will look like.
I'd like to add my 2 cents on the P/E ratio analysis. The notion of using a P/E valuation metric for an emerging technology company that is just turning profitable is ridiculous. If you think that pricing is going to continue to deteriorate or OC is going to eat Align's lunch such that Align will never grow revenues from roughly a $200mm annual rate, then that's one thing. Good luck to you if you think that by the way because you'll be proven wrong. But if you haven't drunk the OC koolaid yet, consider thinking about valution on an enterprise value to sales basis. ALGN trades at roughly 2x EV/sales which is a significant discount to its peers. For a company with the potential to post 70% gross margins and 20%+ operating margins not so far down the road, this is very cheap. Obviously the operating leverage hasn't kicked in and won't kick in to a significant degree this year because Align needs to "anniversary" the price cuts that were instituted in 11/05. But by the end of this year, as we look into 2007, we could be looking at 15-20%+ sales growth in 2007 and significant operating leverage. At 4x potential 2007 sales of $250mm+, this could be an $18 stock by year-end. It's not about the past. It's about the future and the future looks pretty bright for ALGN.
yup, exactly. i'm looking forward to earnings in april. seems like business is pretty good at algn, notwithstanding "the sky is falling" thesis propagated by the shorts. anyway, we'll find out soon enough, won't we?