It's really funny, lots of great feedback on $33k Profit. What is even more amazing is everyone one of these peoples account was created today. They found this post buried in CRM discussion group, so impressed they jump to the web site, made money so fast they had to setup a Yahoo account so they could comment on how great $33K Profit is.
Scary part. It must work, or why would they take the time to setup and post this #$%$.
I was able to use this to remove a stain from my shirt.
A good friend of mine has a bother that found a nickel after signing up. I can't explain the good luck other than this site.
Get out your credit card, this is so incredible.
Enron created huge returns as well for stock holders. Up until it didn't.
Growth at 30%? How much did ExactTarget cost? How much did it add to their growth? Why did Exact Targets revenue become more valuable under salesforce? salesforce did not care what they paid, because the new they were getting 10 time revenue. As long as they paid less than 10 times revenue it was going to add value. $2.6 billion for 300 million in revenue. What a deal... Oh and the 300 million in revenue came with a lose of how many million? $40?
Are you buying a company or what its stock price has done? Does the stock price or valuation mean something to you?
Describe the company in 2020: $12 billion, 4.5 times revenue, 890 million outstanding shares, $2.7 Billion in profit??? Sound good? That makes it a $60 dollar stock in 6 years. If it can make all the numbers I just stated.
Tell me the number you believe will happen. You will come up with $50 to $60 stock in 6 years. Unless you think a 20 year old company will still be trading at 10 times revenue with no profit.
It's fine to say this is a momentum play, its fine to say you know there is a bigger fool to buy the stock. But please don't try to imply that this company is worth $33 billion today. They are a $4.1 billion dollar company losing money and diluting shareholders at an alarming pace.
I agree I'm being very generous. It will never happen. But IF... big if, its still worth only $50 to $60 a share in 6 years????
I just want these bulls to tell me the numbers they expect in 2020.
I'm ok with this is a momo trade, I'm ok with I'm buying because I believe there is a bigger fool. But I'm not OK with its a great investment, without numbers of where it will be in 5 to 6 years. In 2020 it will be a 20 year old company. They will not trade at 10 times revenue. They will not get away with no profits, they will not get PE of 90.
Yep very generous, and still come up with a stock price in 2020 that is less than its trading for right now.
Really? Using that logic, every stock is a buy for you. Why would you buy SFDC which no money?
Show me the numbers. What will it be worth in 2020?
multiple of sales:
Revenue: 10 Billion
Multiple of sales: 4.5
Outstanding shares: 890 Million
Share Price: $50.56
Earnings: $1.5 Billion
What number do you want to adjust?
Say they do 12 Billion in 2020, leave everything else the same...
Share Price: $60.67
Earnings: $1.8 Billion
If SFDC can continue to grow, and if SFDC can generate $1.8 billion in profit, and if they can get a multiple of 4.5 times revenue as a 20 year old company and if they get PE30 the stock is worth $61 dollars a share in 6 years.
Tell me the numbers you expect to see?
I have not even heard a single bull argument from you.
what do you thin CRM is worth... Most important WHY?
Rasta thinks its under valued. But he also claims they make a profit.
even the people that said Buy, stated it was not worth the value but claimed it would keep going up. It might go up. But it sure is not worth the current valuation.
Did you read the article? 100% real estate ad. 100% speculation.
Not sure you point, are you suggesting salesforce now has a real estate division?
Is the land sold? If no, it's not worth more. It's worth what it sells for.
I think you're too nice to CRM. It will not bounce up so fast, and it wont bounce so high. I think we will drop another 2 to 3 points, and then maybe bounce up to $54 or $55.
People - So you believe salesforce hires better than anyone else. Or they have a special way of hiring that makes their hiring more valuable.
First Mover Advantage - Salesforce is a 10 year old company. Do they even own all their own data centers, I'm 99% sure they rent data centers (I'm mean cloud centers). Amazon has been cloud, Microsoft Azure cloud. They did take advantage of first mover, but it's over. If you don't believe it ends, then isn't IBM and Microsoft still the first mover advantage?
Growth - Where are they going to get $2.6 billion every year to purchase 300 million in revenue? Of course that $300 million in revenue came with $40 million in loses.
Every company needs good people. Every company has to have IP or something they can be best in the world at. Every company should be growing. Hopefully profitably.
Math = -3
Are you concerned about cash flow? What is $2.5 billion of deferred revenue mean? It means they already collected the money, but they can't book it till the service is performed. Ouch. Last year they only generated 4 billion, what will happen when they book revenue next year, but no cash comes in. Ouch again. No worries - they have first mover advantage.
All great so what's it worth?
Exact Target cost $2.6 Billion!!!! Will it ever generate $2.6 billion in profit from Exact Target? Will any of the acquisitions generate a profit? Take away revenue from ExactTarget and the grow is not so spectacular.
Bottom line tell me what its worth.
Can salesforce get to 10 billion to 12 billion revenue by 2020? Let say they can.
Will they trade at 4 to 4.5 times revenue?
Will they trade at 25 times earnings? Assume they have earnings?
How many shares outstanding? 890 million? Or more at the rate they are giving them away today.
Lots of big IF's...
But when you run the math it says its going to be trading at $50 to $60 a share in the next 6 years.
Show me a model where its worth more.
When you hire 1000 people in one location you stop getting the best and hire anyone with a pulse. Ouch. What are all these people doing? salesforce is cloud, there is NO SOFTWARE. Cloud is such a new concepts all the real software companies are losing to salesforce because salesforce saves them so much money, because its in the could. When everything is in the cloud, everyone gets rich. There is nothing to do, it's in the cloud.
So why does salesforce need 700K feet of office space? What are these people doing? Not developing software, because there is no software. Not customizing software because there is no software. All sales? Maybe all accounts. Professional services? 770 square feet for each new employee. Must be nap cubes.
Yesterday it was trains, today we are playing with cars (Ferrari). But you still have not given an intelligent valuation of CRM.
Normally that is an indication of no position.
A true investor. watch out, train, whoo whoo, look out shorts... warning... warning... Should like salesforce earning call. wonderful, fabulous, terrific, incredible.
Too bad none of these warnings or descriptive words have anything to do with how the company is performing.
@bodewin - What is salesforce worth? Why? Just over $4 billion. Lost $250 million. Diluted shareholders every quarter. No plans to make money. Growth is slowing drastically, lots of competition.
If... if They hit 10 billion by 2020 what are they worth?
Say 4.5 times rev. Market valuation of 45Billion. Shares outstanding... 890 Million estimate. That puts the stock at $51 a share.
Tell me what should shorts be worried about? Tell me what its worth in 2020?
OR... go play with your train.
Yes, there are people with positions pumping the stock, but I do not know of any fund or institution that pays people to pump in discussion group.
@everfoxy - I have heard people say paid pumper many times. I 'binged' it and found nothing talking about an opportunity to be paid to pump a stock. What proof do you have the someone pays another person to pump a stock?