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BGC Partners, Inc. Message Board

deanmortensen 113 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Feb 15, 2009
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  • Reply to

    14 New Vessels Through a Deal with HSH Nordbank

    by steri318 Apr 23, 2015 10:15 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen 5 hours ago Flag

    Impaler, it probably won't change your view on the TPP, but China is not a party to it. Basically, the TPP is an effort by Pacific Rim nations (ex-China) to try to counterbalance China's growing economic might and dominance of the Pacific region. The way I see it, most U.S. manufacturing jobs left long ago. And, the U.S. is a signatory to NAFTA, which has caused an exodus of jobs to Mexico. Wages are much lower in Mexico, so it's a de facto situation. I'm not sure it can get much worse for American workers than it already is.

  • Reply to

    Very troubling here!

    by ran.dog8011 Apr 23, 2015 1:54 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Yup! FNJN is a "show me" stock. Finjan will have to produce some real, concrete financial results to lift the stock, or else it will end up in the sub-$1 crocodile pit.

  • benefit from the spread between WTI and Brent. Because of a 1970s era law, U.S. oil companies are barred from exporting crude oil from the U.S. But, refiners can and do export refined products, and the wide differential between WTI and Brent make this a profitable business. TNP will be able to command high day rates for its product carrriers as refineries ramp up output of refined products for export. That's the "sweet spot" in the shipping biz.

  • Reply to

    14 New Vessels Through a Deal with HSH Nordbank

    by steri318 Apr 23, 2015 10:15 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    I expect the Congress to give the president "fast track" authority to sign trade bills. The U.S., Japan, Canada and other Pacific Rim nations are close to signing the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which will lower tariffs and boost trade. It should be especially beneficial to U.S. agribusiness. It will probably increase trade between the U.S. and its trading partners over time. Eventually, the U.S. will likely sign a similar trade deal with Europe. Both deals will be a positive backdrop for Navios.

  • ...but Brent is roughly $65. IMHO, if Brent can stabilize at or near the current price, PGN will do fine. I'm guessing PGN can keep most of its rigs contracted with Brent in the $60s. Standard jackup day rates in the $80Ks will generate decent free cash flow for Paragon.

  • Reply to

    Insiders may be bailing out

    by goskiing99 Apr 23, 2015 2:59 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    goskiing, as usual you are spreading unfounded rumors. Insiders aren't selling. You continually sow fear and distrust of management to try to induce others to sell. Look, everyone on this board knows you are short PGN, so give it a rest!

  • Reply to

    Very troubling here!

    by ran.dog8011 Apr 23, 2015 1:54 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    If some Finjan insiders want to buy cheap shares, they have only to do so. The shares are trading below $1.50, but no takers from Cisco, Bessemer, Harbourvest, or Eric Benhamou. Officers and directors aren't interested in buying any FNJN shares.

  • deanmortensen by deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    If Finjan insiders don't have enough conviction and confidence in the company and the value of its patents to want to buy the stock under $1.50 share price, then why should I buy the shares?

  • Reply to

    now this is out of control

    by truthbetoldkids Apr 23, 2015 10:43 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    I think what's most troubling is there is no bottom to the stock price. None of the company directors or existing Finjan investors are willing to step up to the plate and buy more shares, even when the stock is spiraling downward, notching a set of new all-time lows. Presumably, those guys know more about Finjan and its business prospects than retail investors. The Finjan insiders lack conviction and confidence to buy more shares. Yes, I see Hartstein and Noonan attending all of these security conventions and symposiums, such as RSA, and touting Finjan and its IP. But, I don't see them taking their own advice by buying some shares. In terms of technical analysis, the stock still hasn't found downside support. If Finjan is really an innovator, and really has valuable patents pertaining to "behavior-based threat detection and prevention", then why aren't the insiders interested In buying the shares for less than $1.50?

  • Reply to

    This is a steal at this level

    by joltenjohn Apr 22, 2015 4:21 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 22, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    If Finjan has valuable IP, one would expect insiders and others "in the know" to grab some cheap shares here. Bessemer Partners, Harbourvest, Cisco, and other institutional investors could pick up more shares for almost nothing, if they were so inclined. But, they aren't so inclined. That's what's troubling. FNJN's share price keeps spiraling lower, but nobody steps up to the plate to buy the shares. If Phil Hartstein et al really think the shares are worth something, then one would expect they could scare up some buyers to keep the share price from sagging so low.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 22, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Frankly, no. Finjan prefers a lump sum payment to an ongoing royalty stream, mainly because when licensees pay a portion of their revenue as a royalty, they tend to cheat, which requires constant monitoring and dispute resolution. Better just to make them pay a one-time lump sum--at least that way there is certainty Finjan gets paid.

  • Reply to

    PGN bonds are moving up on good sized purchase

    by ibc123 Apr 21, 2015 3:36 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 22, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    I wish Paragon would buy back its bonds! When Paragon's bonds are trading at 41 cents on the dollar, and when Paragon then sits on its hands, that sends the wrong message to the market. It sends the message that Paragon is in a severe liquidity crunch and can't afford to buy back its own debt at a fire sale price. It's crazy! Stilley thought Prospector was such a steal at $500M (including debt) that he swooped in and snapped it up in a heartbeat, but now that Paragon's own debt has been trading at 34-41 cents on the dollar for months, he apparently doesn't think that debt is an attractive buy at that price. Is there any solvent corporation that wouldn't be interested in buying back its own debt at 41 cents on the dollar? Crazy!!!!!!!!!

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 21, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    If Blue Coat wants a portion sealed, and if Finjan agrees to Blue Coat's request, that pretty much guarantees that Blue Coat will pay up. But, that's a lot of "ifs"...

  • Reply to

    Waiting for official word but I think

    by truthbetoldkids Apr 20, 2015 10:12 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 20, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    Bingo! Finjan could use a win!

  • Reply to

    Q1 Forecast 2015

    by pismire_03 Apr 19, 2015 8:21 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 19, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    pismire, there are 85.5M shares. So, you estimate that 1Q free cash flow per share will come in at $1.41 or so? (I can live with that. Yes--I can definitely live with that!)

  • Reply to

    I think we have a good chance to win this

    by truthbetoldkids Apr 17, 2015 11:42 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 17, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    truth, for the non-lawyers among us, what exactly does it mean that the judge granted the Motion for Partial Summary Judgement? Is Blue Coat now forced to buy a license from Finjan?

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 16, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    When it comes down to it, BlueCoat's private equity owners won't want to spend the $$$$ to go to trial. So, the odds are they settle. Finjan is offering a license on reasonable terms, so why not settle? If Blue Coat drags this out through delaying tactics, it will cost Blue Coat more in the long run. The conservative choice for Blue Coat is to settle, and private equity guys are conservative.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 16, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Tough to guess the outcome. Neither side wants to go to trial. I have little doubt that Blue Coat infringed Finjan's patents. The private equity buyers of BlueCoat have to choose between settling now, or choosing the expense and distraction of a trial with an unpredictable outcome. If BlueCoat thinks it can shoot down Finjan's patents-at-law, then it will choose the latter. The private equity guys are conservative, and they won't go to trial unless they are 90% sure they will prevail over Finjan. BlueCoat's legal team has done the legal research and determined to the best of their ability whether Finjan's claims are valid. That will inform their decision on how to proceed.

  • Reply to

    What happened to 'Dar the great' and NSAM

    by genesis_gekko Apr 15, 2015 9:49 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 15, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    I don't think short-term price moves of NRF are indicative of anything other than investor antsy-ness. I plan to sit tight, and give management time to execute their business plan. The volatility may continue. Hamo has a stellar track record at creating value for shareholders. I like his vision of spinning off pure play reits, such as the European property reit, which will likely trade at a lower yield/higher multiple of FFO. It appears that after the European property reit spinoff, Hamo can "rinse and repeat" with a healthcare reit, and maybe a few more pure-play reits. What's not to like?

  • deanmortensen by deanmortensen Apr 15, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    My sense is that Paragon will do fine if Brent stabilizes at $60 or so. At $60 Brent, many shelf drilling projects are profitable. And, 60% or more of Paragon's work is development and workovers, which will continue in any case. Paragon is still very profitable with standard jackup rig dayrates in the $80Ks. The IEA says oil demand will grow by 1 MBD or so in 2015. It just makes economic sense that the higher cost barrels from oil sands, shale and ultra-deepwater will bear the brunt of the capex cuts. Shelf drilling is among the lowest cost barrels to produce outside of onshore middle east.

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