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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

deanmortensen 991 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 19, 2016 7:48 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2009
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  • deanmortensen by deanmortensen Apr 19, 2016 7:48 PM Flag

    Those who kept the faith got rewarded in the end. Paul Rooke's strategy of transitioning Lexmark into high-value software products ultimately created shareholder value, even though the strong dollar has eroded the value of foreign revenues. I'm guessing that some large shareholders must have gotten antsy and pushed Rooke to sell the company.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 19, 2016 7:42 PM Flag

    Lexmark has some debt in its capital structure, and Apex & PAG will assume the debt.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Mar 29, 2016 12:40 PM Flag

    So far, so good. I expect NRF to complete its $500 million buyback, which will reduce the share count by 20% or so, and will increase AFFO by 25%. Rinse & repeat.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice to see TK getting a li'l love today....

    by deanmortensen Mar 16, 2016 2:38 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Mar 18, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    I'm not sufficiently familiar with Euronav and other shippers to offer an opinion. Best of luck...

  • Reply to

    Nice to see TK getting a li'l love today....

    by deanmortensen Mar 16, 2016 2:38 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Mar 17, 2016 4:20 PM Flag

    As a rough rule of thumb, a stock is worth 10X EPS or so. But, the multiple that applies to a specific stock is a function of many factors, such as the market multiple, expected earnings growth, stability of revenue, earnings and cash flow, industry sector, etc. Personally, I don't think it's worth putting too fine a point on the TK valuation analysis. The way I see it, if TK's existing contracts are mostly honored (on a going forward basis), then the stock is worth a lot more than its current price. My guess is that management's redirection of cash flow from dividend payouts to fund capital projects will produce greater shareholder returns over the long-term. However, "Mr. Market" may not reward TK with a higher stock price until capital market conditions ease up so TK can access capital, and can reinstate the $2.20 annual dividend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice to see TK getting a li'l love today....

    by deanmortensen Mar 16, 2016 2:38 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Mar 17, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    clemens, the quarterly dividend was 55 cents prior to the recent dividend cut to 5.5 cents. Management states that the only reason for the dividend cut is the "capital markets dislocation", which basically means that Teekay can no longer access capital markets on reasonable terms. As a result, management is redirecting free cash flow from dividend payouts to funding committed growth projects. Management has stressed that the only reason for the dividend cut is the capital markets dislocation, which CEO Evensen believes is "temporary". Evensen anticipates that when capital markets reopen, the dividend payout will be reinstated.

    I'm guessing that unless the price of oil drops below $30 and stays there, the existing long-term contracts of TK, TOO and TGP will be honored in general. Under a scenario in which the contracts are honored, and capital markets become available to fund committed growth projects, then TK stock valuation should be anchored by a $2.20 annual dividend. If little growth in the dividend is expected, then TK might trade at $18 or so. If the dividend is expected to grow over time, one might expect the valuation to reflect that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • TOO has been on a tear this week, and TGP had a nice run too. TK owns big chunks of both--it's the 'mother ship'. I think those contracts will hold up pretty well. You look at the offshore drilling rig companies--their contracts held up even when oil prices collapsed. (Except for Mexico contracts that had an 'escape clause' already written into the contracts.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • deanmortensen by deanmortensen Mar 14, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    Nobody wants to sell today? I believe TOO is way undervalued, but, heck, it's up 33%!!!!!!! Doesn't anyone want to sell a few shares on a 33% price spike?

  • A sub-$13 stock price will enable Northstar to buy back over 20% of its outstanding common shares, which will boost EPS and CAD/share by over 25% because of how the math works, under the existing $500 million buyback authorization.

  • Reply to

    #$%$

    by ericjoyner Feb 26, 2016 2:21 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 26, 2016 3:14 PM Flag

    It will be great if NRF is able to complete its $500 million share buyback program with an average share price under $13. That would allow NRF to buy back over 20% of its outstanding common shares. That will increase EPS and CAD/share by over 25% because of the way the math works.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How many shares will I have after bankrupcy?

    by mike007_1956 Feb 13, 2016 6:44 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 13, 2016 8:25 PM Flag

    mike, there are roughly 86 million shares currently outstanding. During the bankruptcy, roughly 44 million new shares will be issued to the senior unsecured bondholders per the terms of the PSA. You started with 2000 shares before the BK, and at the end of the BK, you still have 2000 shares.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 13, 2016 6:30 PM Flag

    bobo, I'm long PGN, and have been since late 2014. I rode PGN all the way down from $8, and I've never sold a single share. I'm not trying to spread rumors, but am just pointing out that with oil at $30, there are a lack of tenders for offshore rigs. So, in the worst case, if the oil price remains stuck at or below $30 for the next two years, I'm guessing PGN can make it through 2017, and then will need to restructure again. That isn't my "base scenario". I expect the price of oil to recover this year, and then bounce between $40 and $60 for a few years. But, I have little confidence in my own oil price forecast.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 12, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    insider, I have to admit that the outcome of the bondholder negotiations has far exceeded my expectations. My assumption going in was that the bondholders would not negotiate in good faith, because if the simply waited and stalled, Paragon would eventually default, at which time the bondholders would take control of the company and trade debt for 100% of equity. IOW, I always assumed that existing shareholders would be wiped out in any restructuring. My take is that Stilley has struck a deal on very favorable terms to existing shareholders, so I'm ecstatic with the restructuring. This deal should allow Paragon to continue to survive for a couple more years, during which time oil prices may recover.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 11, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    mattmateuchi, fair value is exactly what I'm getting at. For most equity reits, fair value is something along the lines of the current value of owned properties less debt. That analysis may not apply to NRF, because of the permanent management contract with NSAM, and other governance issues. My point is: Those issues are an obstacle to NRF shareholders realizing the economic value of NRF's assets, and are the likely reason why there hasn't been an activist run at NRF in spite of its depressed stock valuation.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 10, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    Gee! What a brilliant idea! You mean all we have to do is hire GS to tell us how to 'unlock shareholder value'? Why didn't I think of that! I guess that's why NRF pays NSAM $200 million a year! I think we should all insist that Hamo receive a special grant of 100,000 more NRF shares for his brilliant idea to hire GS!!!!!!

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 10, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    bigkahuna, good luck with that! With all the insider trading at SAC Capital, they couldn't pin it on Steve Cohen. Chances are slim that Hamo will get nailed. NSAM's officers & directors insurance will cover any lawsuits. If there is so much unrealized shareholder value in NRF, why don't I see a flurry of SEC filings as activists buy share stakes in NRF? Or, for that matter, why don't Hamo and his cronies pick up some cheap shares for their own accounts?

  • You can take a stab at doing a valuation analysis based on the owned CRE and other assets. But, that permanent management contract with NSAM, amounting to $200 million annually, combined with the continuous suction of incentive compensation (ie, share grants) to Hamo and his cronies is a drag on cash flow and stock price appreciation. And with Land and Buildings taking a stake in NSAM, and demanding board seats, while pushing NSAM management to 'monetize' its contract with NRF, it's hard to say what will happen to NRF. One has to wonder, "Since NRF shareholders have no control over the NSAM management contract, and since Hamo and his cronies have sold most of their NRF stock, will NRF shareholders receive the benefits of NRF's huge asset base?" NRF governance is so conflicted and murky, it's hard to know if NRF will be managed for the benefit of NRF shareholders, or for NSAM shareholders, or for activists who desire a quick pop in NSAM's stock price.

    It is noted that NRF stock trades for maybe half of the current asset value, but I don't see activists scooping up cheap shares of NRF with the goal of pressuring management into liquidating NRF and returning cash to shareholders. Why no interest in NRF from activists? A: It's that awful, permanent, $200 million annual external management contract that NRF is stuck with. An activist would be unlikely to prevail on Hamo and Co. to liquidate NRF, since Hamo and NSAM are loathe to let go of that plum contract and regular gifts of free NRF shares.

  • Reply to

    An Activist Run at NRF....

    by deanmortensen Feb 9, 2016 2:52 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 9, 2016 8:36 PM Flag

    dave, I agree with your point that NRF should be buying back its own stock with excess cash flow. Buying back NRF stock at its currently depressed price yields a 30%+ cash-on-cash return.

  • Reply to

    An Activist Run at NRF....

    by deanmortensen Feb 9, 2016 2:52 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 9, 2016 4:40 PM Flag

    Hahaha! Thanks for the humor to lighten things up. I suppose there's no point in crying as NRF stock spirals lower every day. The interests of NRF shareholders count for zip with NRF management. Even activist hedge fund guys are afraid to take a significant stake in NRF because of the legal entanglement with NSAM. If the NRF board represented shareholders' interests, they'd liquidate NRF, and then distribute the cash proceeds to shareholders.

  • Reply to

    KBW

    by octopusink Feb 8, 2016 5:57 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Feb 9, 2016 4:28 PM Flag

    If NRF management wants to restore investor confidence, they could start by holding onto the free shares they keep awarding themselves, instead of selling most of them. Also, management could take shareholder-friendly actions, such as liquidating some assets, and then using the cash proceeds to buy back NRF shares, which would be immediately accretive to EPS and CAD. However, one must consider the fact that NRF management is conflicted because of the non-terminable management contract between NRF and NSAM, the fact that both boards are nearly identical, and the fact that Hamo and his cronies own more NSAM shares than NRF shares. They are advancing their own selfish interests, not representing the interests of NRF shareholders.

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