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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

deanmortensen 258 posts  |  Last Activity: May 5, 2015 4:45 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Stilley runs another one into the ground

    by goskiing99 May 5, 2015 12:17 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen May 5, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Stilley hasn't "run (Paragon) into the ground". The market assumes Paragon will crash and burn, but to date Paragon continues to generate strong free cash flow, and is obviously not in financial distress. May and June are likely to be pivotal for Paragon as a large number of contracts terminate then. If all of those affected rigs become idle, then the future looks dim. Longs need to hope Paragon can keep at least half of those rigs working past June. Shorts like goskiing are hoping customers flee, leaving Paragon to cold stack the idled rigs. The "base case" scenario is that Paragon generates roughly $2/share or so of free cash flow in 2015. If you know what happens in 2016 and beyond, then why are you wasting time reading this? Bet on oil futures and get rich!

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen May 5, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    The rebound in Brent price is timely as a slough of PGN rig contracts terminate in May and June. It's more likely Pemex will keep more of Paragon's rigs working if Brent can hold around $70.

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy

    by goskiing99 Apr 27, 2015 8:33 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen May 5, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    And you expect the board to believe you are long PGN when you continually slam PGN? Your posts are unremittingly negative.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 30, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    WTI now at $59 and Brent at $66. The dollar is on a losing streak.

  • Reply to

    pumping up with volume

    by invest75 Apr 30, 2015 10:12 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 30, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    invest, I've never seen such a squirrely stock! FNJN is volatility on steroids!!!!!!!!!! There's almost no float, so the stock gets knocked around like a ping pong ball in a demolition derby! Most of the outstanding shares are locked up by long term institutional investors: Bessemer, Harbourvest, Eric Benhamou, and others...very little float. And, FNJN's business prospects are totally opaque. Look, one mutual fund or hedge fund guy can push the stock up or down 30% in a few minutes, because there's nobody on the other side of that trade.

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy

    by goskiing99 Apr 27, 2015 8:33 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 29, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    Look goskiing, you are a short who is perched on the PGN board like a vulture spewing gloom and doom daily. You continually spew negativity to try to drive down the stock price, but when PGN gets an extension or other positive news comes out, you fall silent. Your pretense of being long PGN shows an appalling lack of honesty. Give it a rest!

  • Reply to

    Prospector a colossal and inexcusable fumble

    by goskiing99 Apr 29, 2015 9:12 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 29, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    If PGN spikes up shorts will find their bells are in a vise!

  • Reply to

    A humble prediction

    by queen_anne_22 Apr 28, 2015 5:52 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 28, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    queen_anne_22, I'll take the opposite side of that bet. I predict NTP's share buyback will be oversubscribed, and post-buyback, the share price will initially gap down to $4.50, and then it will steadily decline to $4 or so over the next year.

  • Reply to

    Investors buy the rumors and sell on the news.

    by redbear358 Apr 28, 2015 8:48 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 28, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    form1, I would just point out that Mind CTI raised its annual dividend from 24 cents to 30 cents last year, so that indicates progress. The fact that its operating margin went from 20% in 1Q 2014 to 27% in 1Q 2015 shows that Mind CTI is experiencing strong margin expansion. The way I look at MNDO is that it is a value stock with growth characteristics. It's a value stock because it has 79 cents/share on its debt-free balance sheet, and because it pays a 30 cent/share annual dividend. It's a growth stock because its margins are expanding, and because its pursuing bigger deals. Monica Iancu says some large deals expected to close in 1Q didn't close, but she is still looking to close those deals in 2015. I realize that many MNDO investors are grumpy because of the recent stock selloff, but I took the opportunity to buy more MNDO shares. Monica Iancu may not be flamboyant like Jeff Bezos, but she keeps Mind CTI on track, and keeps dishing out cash dividends to shareholders, and she's hunting larger contracts to try to grow the company. And, she has a big ownership stake in Mind CTI. I sleep well at night knowing that Monica Iancu's interests are aligned with shareholder interests.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    14 New Vessels Through a Deal with HSH Nordbank

    by steri318 Apr 23, 2015 10:15 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 27, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    impaler, I think you make a cogent case against the TPP. I can't dispute your points. The U.S. middle class hasn't had a raise in 30 years. Basically, the U.S. middle class is eroding, and globalization is a part of the reason for that. But, there are other reasons, such as technological change. Today, factories need far fewer workers because of increasing automation. My view is that DC politicians don't have much interest in addressing income inequality and shrinking economic opportunities for the U.S. middle class, because middle class folks can't make $1 million dollar campaign donations like Sheldon Adelson can. Congress is focusing on doing the bidding of the richest 1% of Americans, who are the "lucky few" who fund their re-election campaigns. That's just the way U.S. politicians are bought, sold and paid for.

  • Reply to

    Takeaway from MNDO 1Q Financial results....

    by deanmortensen Apr 27, 2015 12:15 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 27, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    p_a, the full 1Q release on MNDO's website states that operating margin in 1Q was 27% of revenues, up from 20% of revenues in the year ago quarter. MNDO benefited from a pronounced strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies. Basically, most of MNDO's expenses are denominated in weaker currencies, but 49% of revenues were from the Americas, and I think just about all of that was U.S. customers. So, I'm not so sure your statement that "the cost basis for the company is going up, even at a static headcount, so the margin of error is shrinking" tells the whole story.

  • If you annualize the $1.65M cash flow from operating activities in 1Q, you get 35 cents/share, so cash flow easily covers the dividend, and MIND isn't currently making large capital investments. Monica Iancu referred to large deals that were expected to close in 1Q that were delayed, but she still expects those deals to close sometime in 2015. That tells me revenue and cash flows are likely to grow meaningfully in coming quarters. Monica pointed out that after paying the 30 cents/share annual dividend, MNDO still has 79 cents/share of cash and securities on its debt-free balance sheet. Long-time investors are aware quarterly results can be lumpy, and large contracts are often subject to delays in closing, but my sense is that those deals will eventually close, because MIND offers a compelling value proposition. I expect those large deals already in the pipeline to be accretive to revenue and cash flow during 2015.

  • ...but Brent is priced in dollars. The dollar has gained about 15% against the Mexican peso over that period. In other words, Brent has declined by 22% or so in pesos. So, I think there is a decent chance that Pemex will want to keep its Paragon rigs working after the existing contracts expire over the next month or so. Maybe Pemex will invoke the "well-in-progress" provisions in the contracts, as it has in a couple of other existing contracts. Paragon will likely have to cut the dayrate into the $80Ks to get contract extensions. Either way, I think Pemex will want to keep drilling. Paragon still earns a decent margin with dayrates in the $80K range.

  • Reply to

    14 New Vessels Through a Deal with HSH Nordbank

    by steri318 Apr 23, 2015 10:15 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 24, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    Impaler, it probably won't change your view on the TPP, but China is not a party to it. Basically, the TPP is an effort by Pacific Rim nations (ex-China) to try to counterbalance China's growing economic might and dominance of the Pacific region. The way I see it, most U.S. manufacturing jobs left long ago. And, the U.S. is a signatory to NAFTA, which has caused an exodus of jobs to Mexico. Wages are much lower in Mexico, so it's a de facto situation. I'm not sure it can get much worse for American workers than it already is.

  • Reply to

    Very troubling here!

    by ran.dog8011 Apr 23, 2015 1:54 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Yup! FNJN is a "show me" stock. Finjan will have to produce some real, concrete financial results to lift the stock, or else it will end up in the sub-$1 crocodile pit.

  • ...to benefit from the spread between WTI and Brent. Because of a 1970s era law, U.S. oil companies are barred from exporting crude oil from the U.S. But, refiners can and do export refined products, and the wide differential between WTI and Brent make this a profitable business. TNP will be able to command high day rates for its product carrriers as refineries ramp up output of refined products for export. That's the "sweet spot" in the shipping biz.

  • Reply to

    14 New Vessels Through a Deal with HSH Nordbank

    by steri318 Apr 23, 2015 10:15 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    I expect the Congress to give the president "fast track" authority to sign trade bills. The U.S., Japan, Canada and other Pacific Rim nations are close to signing the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which will lower tariffs and boost trade. It should be especially beneficial to U.S. agribusiness. It will probably increase trade between the U.S. and its trading partners over time. Eventually, the U.S. will likely sign a similar trade deal with Europe. Both deals will be a positive backdrop for Navios.

  • ...but Brent is roughly $65. IMHO, if Brent can stabilize at or near the current price, PGN will do fine. I'm guessing PGN can keep most of its rigs contracted with Brent in the $60s. Standard jackup day rates in the $80Ks will generate decent free cash flow for Paragon.

  • Reply to

    Insiders may be bailing out

    by goskiing99 Apr 23, 2015 2:59 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    goskiing, as usual you are spreading unfounded rumors. Insiders aren't selling. You continually sow fear and distrust of management to try to induce others to sell. Look, everyone on this board knows you are short PGN, so give it a rest!

  • Reply to

    Very troubling here!

    by ran.dog8011 Apr 23, 2015 1:54 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Apr 23, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    If some Finjan insiders want to buy cheap shares, they have only to do so. The shares are trading below $1.50, but no takers from Cisco, Bessemer, Harbourvest, or Eric Benhamou. Officers and directors aren't interested in buying any FNJN shares.

SKUL
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