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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

deanmortensen 119 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 5, 2015 7:52 PM Member since: Feb 15, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Luxor Capital Filing NRF

    by cdouprey Jul 7, 2015 12:47 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 7, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Collect a 10% annual dividend while you wait for NRF to spin off NRE, and probably more "pure play" reit spinoffs after that. What's not to like?

  • Reply to

    Smart Money Buying

    by artsietopology Jul 7, 2015 4:05 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 7, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    I like the NM-PH preferreds at $18.14 yielding an 11.9% annual dividend. What's not to like?

  • China stocks rose over 150% over the last 12 months, mostly on furious stock buying by small investors on margin. It was a classic stock bubble fueled by China's economic authorities who encouraged small Chinese investors to buy stock. Now the air is fast coming out of the bubble, and Chinese authorities are desperately trying to keep it from deflating, fearful that the stock crash will clobber the broader economy, but investor panic has set in. Investors are dumping their stocks as the market continues to spiral lower. The cascade of selling has much farther to run. All the gains of the last 12 months have to be erased before the market can find a bottom, because economic fundamentals don't support these price levels.

  • With the peso getting beaten up, oil is expensive when priced in pesos. It should make Pemex want to drill.

  • Reply to

    The Mexican Peso has taken a beating...

    by deanmortensen Jul 8, 2015 6:51 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 10, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    True--but Paragon has idle rigs in the Mexican GOM, and even a low priced contract is better than no contract. Paragon can afford to offer a very attractive dayrate.

  • ...according to FINRA's corporate bond data website. Paragon's bonds are priced for bankruptcy.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 13, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    docpvh, I am long PSEC, but my sense is it's very unlikely the PSEC BOD will actually proceed with a share buyback. First, where is PSEC going to get the cash needed to buy back shares? PSEC management is taking pains to avoid increasing the leverage ratio, because doing so could adversely affect its investment grade credit rating. If PSEC had large holdings of liquid assets that could easily be sold at the valuation they are held on the balance sheet, then the BOD could explore the possibility of selling those assets to raise cash to be used for a share buyback. Unfortunately, PSEC doesn't have large holdings of liquid assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, bills and government-backed mortgage bonds.

  • Reply to

    Solid FSR-adds $180 million backlog

    by cben15606 Jul 13, 2015 4:15 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 13, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    bigluke, I agree with your assessment. It definitely inspires confidence that PGN continues to score extensions. It shows that even in the current low oil price environment, there is demand for Paragon's workhorse rigs. I'm looking for Paragon to produce $150 million or so of free cash flow (before capital investment) in 2Q, and a combined $200 million in 3Q and 4Q. Business is holding up fairly well, and Paragon's finances look sustainable at this point.

  • Reply to

    Solid FSR-adds $180 million backlog

    by cben15606 Jul 13, 2015 4:15 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 14, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    My explanation is that the bonds are thinly traded. So, although a few bonds do trade at distressed prices, few bonds actually change hands. Ie, the trading volume is very low. The big holders aren't selling. So, it may not be possible to take a significant new position in PGN senior bonds, because they don't trade much. If a trader charged in and tried to buy up blocks of PGN bonds, he'd drive up prices in short order because there's no liquidity. When that is the case, it's hard to know what the "real" price of the bonds is.

  • Reply to

    Solid FSR-adds $180 million backlog

    by cben15606 Jul 13, 2015 4:15 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 14, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    goskiing, my sense is that few PGN bonds actually change hands. The bonds are thinly traded. If PGN management wants to buy back a significant chunk of their bonds, they have to find a bondholder who is willing to sell. My understanding is that none of the big PGN bondholders are willing to sell at the currently distressed price of 34 cents on the dollar. To buy back a meaningful chunk of bonds, PGN would have to run a tender, and then hope one of the big holders changes his mind and parts with some of his PGN bonds. It might be worth a try.

  • Even though Brent price has swooned to $57/barrel or so, much of the price drop is due to dollar appreciation. In Mexican pesos, Brazilian reals, or even euros, oil hasn't dropped nearly as much. Also, I think the company's work is 60% or so workovers and development drilling. Paragon is able to compete on price for those contracts with its "fit for purpose" standard jackup rigs.

  • Reply to

    CHECK OUT PACER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by truthbetoldkids Jul 14, 2015 1:06 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 14, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    Aw, c'mon, tells us what it says! Don't be a tease!

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 16, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Lost in the discussion of PGN's senior bond discount is the fact that few bonds actually trade. These are extremely illiquid bonds with only a few smallish trades. The biggest holders of PGN bonds aren't selling. I'd say the bonds market value is "indeterminate", because there isn't an actively traded market. In other words, whether you are trying to buy a decent size chunk of PGN bonds, or whether you are trying to sell a chunk, you'll end up moving the price way up or down, because there's nobody on the other side until the price moves significantly. For bond price discovery you need a reasonable volume of trades, which happens to be lacking for PGN bonds.

  • Reply to

    July 15 GOM bids

    by goskiing99 Jul 15, 2015 6:39 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 16, 2015 9:14 PM Flag

    Yes, the auction was a failure. It doesn't appear that oil companies are eager to spend a lot of cash to explore for oil in Mexico, and pay 40% of pre-tax profits to the Mexican government for the privilege of doing so. Maybe if they change the auction terms so instead of "production sharing", the bidders can bid straight cash for the blocks.

  • Reply to

    Price Action today

    by foo_star Jul 17, 2015 10:04 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 17, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    Probably some money manager figured out that NM stock trades for roughly the market value of its stockholdings per share in NNA and NMM. Or, maybe he figured out that NM's dividend is completely covered by the dividend payments it receives from the aforementioned stockholdings in other Navios Group companies, so that even if NM's dry bulk operations are breakeven for the quarter, NM's common dividend is 100% covered by the dividend payments it receives from its stockholdings. In other words, when you buy NM stock, you get its dry bulk shipping business essentially thrown in for free.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A Jury may never see this case

    by truthbetoldkids Jul 17, 2015 9:13 AM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 17, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    truth, you have a point. Because the reality is, even if Bluecoat, Sophos, FireEye, or one of the other defendants were to prevail in court, it still loses financially because of the enormous expense of putting on a defense. It often makes more business sense for a defendant to just settle, even if he thinks he has an even chance to win in court. Either way he has to pay.

  • Reply to

    July 15 GOM bids

    by goskiing99 Jul 15, 2015 6:39 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 17, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    I suppose the Mexican government can sweeten the terms and run a new auction. They expected there would be a lot of interest among oil companies to participate in Mexico's opening of new oil basins.

  • deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 22, 2015 8:24 PM Flag

    So, does the Summary Judgement Order mean that the judge has determined that Blue Coat did in fact infringe, and the jury trial is just to determine the amount of damages? (I have no legal training.)

  • On Finjan's website it states a Summary Judgement Order was entered against Blue Coat. For laymen like myself, exactly what does this mean? Clearly the after hours stock price spike suggests somebody thinks it is important.

  • Reply to

    PGN: Value Play ?

    by crafttennis Jul 22, 2015 5:57 PM
    deanmortensen deanmortensen Jul 24, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    xgrk88a, the way I see it is: Shale oil output is likely to remain flat through the end of 2016 unless the price goes up. Global oil production ex-shale and ex-OPEC will decline in 2015 and 2016. Total global oil consumption tends to grow 1.5-2 million barrels annually. I'm guessing that by 2017 or 2018, oil consumption will exceed supply, which will mean oil prices will rise, and then N. American shale producers will ramp up output. Higher oil price will mean more demand for rigs of all types. The big, western oil companies like BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell, etc. are cutting back on investments, which will lead their production to plateau and drop in a year or two. There's actually very little spare capacity available to meet steady demand growth outside of N. America. But, N. American can't ramp up shale oil output with WTI at $50.

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