Everyone on this board, it seems, frames the issue as AMRN vs. BP. BP is not a monolith single competitor. PFE, GSK, AZN, TEVA, et al each could move on AMRN as much to keep it out of the hands of their competitors and to maximize the value of the asset....I'm frankly surprised with this low pps, one of them hasn't yet made a move. Time is money, waiting a year, two or three is missing a valuable revenue stream for these BP with dwindling pipelines.
Maybe AZN will "settle" the suit by just buying AMRN
An editorial in today's WSJ puts the spotlight on the FDA and another small biotech, InterMune, but the FDA MO is the familiar. The editorial begins: "Government power can ruin fortunes, reputations and businesses, but at least the targets usually escape with their lives. Not so with the Food and Drug Administration, whose culture of political control is often lethal. This reality is all too familiar for...."
Yes, I took note of that too: Citi, Sun Trust, Goldman, etc on the call and paying attention to the story
With the emphasis on the NCE decision from FDA yesterday (no real impact for AMRN at this point),
a FDA decision this week that is a positive for AMRN is FDA launched a $20 million program to start more strictly testing generics for quality assurance. AMRN has done a good job of locking up suppliers for
their "fish oil"...so in addition to the short term NCE protection, a great portfolio of patents, any future Vascepa generic will now be subject to stricter quality control from FDA. (FDA said 80% of all prescribed drugs are generics, thus the FDA increased emphasis on monitoring their quality, especially from overseas, where most fish oil comes from).
AMRN's patent portfolio trumps the NCE in any event. Nice window dressing if they got it
but has no real effect now whether they have it or not.
Yes. The MM have done a good job of beating the pps. They have orchestrated to drive pps down to short and then accumulate. We've been seeing the accumulation phase during this base the last several weeks, Now they reverse course and start the drive up in pps.. They don't love or hate AMRN, just use it as a vehicle to make money
No one is infallible but what I like about DuBois/Camber is precisely your example of Ariad
and managements ability to turn things around. (The FDA is their problem, as with AMRN. Drug is approved and selling internationally). BTW, Camber's
10 million shares were purchased recently. They owned zero shares in 2013.
Here we see smart money v. dumb money. Camber is a small (i.e focused) very targeted investment house. Headed by a savvy, decisive and successful ACTIVIST (Stephen Dubois). Jennison is large.cumbersome
and makes investment decisions via portfolio managers who's only objective is to strive to make sure their performance at least matches their peers in the investment world. They buy stocks, they buy fixed income.
They don't earn their money because you or I can buy ETF's and do just as well. So, Jennison dumped their 5.1 million shares Camber is buying 10 million plus shares. I think I know where the smart money is flowing.