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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

deep_value_investor 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2015 12:36 AM Member since: May 29, 2008
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  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Sep 2, 2015 12:36 AM Flag

    Very nice debt swap the just did at 50 cents on the dollar.

  • Reply to

    GDPAN

    by marionpolk2000 Aug 26, 2015 9:50 AM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Sep 2, 2015 12:33 AM Flag

    GDPAN is equal in seniority to GDP-PC and GDP-PD. The company can't convert it to common unless GDP skyrockets. GDPAN holders can convert it to common. None of the preferred shares would do well in bankruptcy. GDP just knocked off some debt with a swap for new debt at 50 cents on the dollar. No guarantees, but that kind of swap reduces debt and makes a bankruptcy less likely.

  • Reply to

    Giant news on Monday this company will skyrocket

    by iaglobal Aug 28, 2015 9:16 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Aug 30, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    The first 3 major problems with your "analysis" of the financials are:

    1. You omitted the preferred stock from your calculations which is senior to the common.
    2. The 250 million credit line is a meaningless number. What's meaningful is the far smaller actually available borrowing base which is currently overdrawn and the bank is forcing them to liquidate assets.
    3. The asset values are based on higher commodity prices.

    Maybe they will survive, but it's doubtful given recent events.

  • Reply to

    the value here is $30m + market cap $2.5m...

    by hunterbio Aug 21, 2015 1:40 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Aug 26, 2015 8:20 PM Flag

    It would be sporting to include the preferred stock in your calculation.

  • Reply to

    Ok, Listen Up

    by jjjjoejjj Aug 11, 2015 10:35 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Aug 14, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Robert, I realize its a complex situation. However the original poser gave a very incorrect and misleading presentation of the "facts". I'm sure you are well aware that claims are paid at the operating company level - not the holding co. The poster implied that their tiny holding co capital was the only capital cushion available to pay claims.

  • Reply to

    Ok, Listen Up

    by jjjjoejjj Aug 11, 2015 10:35 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Aug 14, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    I think you are comparing Apples to Oranges to Grapes. Mortality risk is paid from regulatory capital. Regulatory capital is not the same as holding company book value. Holding co book value is net of debt (PFX). So your analysis is completely wrong, but other than that it was an interesting post.

  • Reply to

    Conf Call: Preferred dividend covered

    by deep_value_investor Aug 11, 2015 12:54 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Aug 11, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    Both and preferred and common are speculative, but anyone wanting to play this should consider the preferred instead of the common. They may keep paying the preferred dividend and it has some pretty good covenants.

  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Aug 11, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Ethan Bellamy - Baird
    Okay. With respect to the preferred, can you give us some insight into how much coverage you would anticipate on the preferred for the balance of '15 and may be looking into '16?

    Kristian Kos - Chairman & CEO
    It looks as if from our guidance that we provided that we would have in excess of probably one to two times covered on the preferred and that allows us, they are possibly in excess of that or were higher than that. So really from our vantage point at present, when we looked at our forecast on cash flow and where we stand today in the common units that are outstanding and the distribution we have been paying to the common units in the preceding quarters, in the prior quarters. We understand that preferred has an outstanding amount that is locked in place and we're adamant on paying. We understand that we have to find a value proposition to preserve an increased value of our common equity. We understand also that we're in this litigation and it's damaging to our cash flow and the market at large is very, very tough place at present for services.

    We've got still the drilled uncompleted backlogs is affecting business, the rig count has found a bottom it would seem, but that does not mean it has rebounded or there is sort of an uptick. And so all of these we took into consideration and want to preserve the payments to the preferred and want to make sure that we focus on finding a long-term strategic path to unlock the value of the common equity of which we've discussed monetizing or separating in some form or fashion the OFS business to unlock and preserve that value.

    So that's a net answer. We feel that there is strong coverage in our cash flow to the preferred and that we're working hard to unlock the value to our common equity and then eventually, once we've unlocked that value bring the distribution back online.

  • Reply to

    Climatologist

    by bnwild56 Aug 8, 2015 11:39 AM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Aug 9, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    It's pointless trying to reason with the "greens". There is no data that will change their minds. Temperatures have been statistically flat for 18 years and now some say that they won't change their mind unless temperatures are flat for another 50 years. We'll all be dead by then.

  • Reply to

    next stop 40c

    by tdbloodstock3 Jul 14, 2015 10:19 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Jul 19, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    You have it backwards. They just closed a new 16 million credit line. They were nearly out of cash before that.

  • deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Jul 14, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    MILL common and preferred shares plummeting. Apollo may be taking a haircut on this one and will probably have to put up more cash for DIP financing,

  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Jul 14, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    See filing out this morning from MILL. Looks like they will be filing bankruptcy soon. Apollo carrying the loan at 90% of par. Might be a big write-off coming soon there.

  • Reply to

    Constitution & Truth

    by tellicherry Jul 5, 2015 8:53 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Jul 7, 2015 8:27 AM Flag

    You have it exactly backwards. The Pilgrims started off with a Communist system and nearly starved to death.. They realized this wasn't working and assigned individual land plots to families instead of one communal plot. Production soared after communism was scrapped in favor of capitalism (as it always does).

  • Reply to

    OT:Climate change. AGW CO2 no effect

    by bnwild56 Jun 4, 2015 3:24 AM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Jun 4, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    The truth is that global warming models have failed as temperatures have "paused" over the past 18 years. Most alarmists deny that the pause has happened. The serious scientists acknowledge the pause and claim it's because the missing heat is hiding somewhere in the deep oceans. Since there is no good historical data for deep ocean temperature this is sort of a "dog ate my homework" type argument.
    They funny thing is that that the longer the pause lasts, the more dire the predictions get. The data doesn't matter to those with the global warming "religion".

  • Reply to

    OT:Climate change. AGW CO2 no effect

    by bnwild56 Jun 4, 2015 3:24 AM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Jun 4, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    The ocean is not even acidic. It's become less basic by a trivial amount that can barely be measured. Funny how people who actually know so little think they are so well informed.

  • Reply to

    OT:Climate change. AGW CO2 no effect

    by bnwild56 Jun 4, 2015 3:24 AM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Jun 4, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    Higher co2 concentrations are good for plants. Parts of the world are getting greener as a result and more CO2 is getting absorbed by plants. Higher CO2 is one reason why crop yields are up. Serious scientists (not profiting from the hysteria and related govt grants) acknowledge that global temperatures (at least based on the undoctored satellite records) have been statistically flat for 18 years. Co2 is a greenhouse gas and does cause some warming, but the effect has been massively over-exaggerated. That's why 99% of the global warnings models have been consistently wrong. Of course many people will believe what they want regardless of the actual data.
    If anyone wants intelligent discussion rather than hysteria (most people don't) I would suggest the wattsupwiththat site.

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