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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

deep_value_investor 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 12, 2015 4:32 PM Member since: May 29, 2008
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  • Reply to

    This is NOT an indebted shale oil company.

    by itsanhol Dec 4, 2014 5:09 AM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 7, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    You could read any of the financials or their presentations. Costs them about $15 to get oil out of the ground and $15 to truck it to market. The trucking costs are declining. PTA is a low cost producer with more debt than cash. They can make money at $68 Brent. It's not an indebted shale company as another poster pointed out. Lower oil hurts every oil company, but PTA gets hurt much less than most. Stock is still trading at enterprise value / 2015 cash flow of less than 1.5X even with oil at current prices.

  • Reply to

    Time to buy

    by sfjdds Dec 16, 2014 2:01 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 17, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    FXEN gets about 90% of their revenues from selling natural gas in Poland. They are still getting very favorable pricing (about 2X what it sells for in the US).

  • Reply to

    very disappointed today!

    by donnyphan Dec 17, 2014 7:03 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 18, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    Crude is going to zero? Maybe the gas station will pay me to fill up my car. Maybe not - LOL.

  • Reply to

    Lots of Insiders sold recently.

    by poppye88 Dec 19, 2014 8:59 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 20, 2014 12:49 PM Flag

    poppy, you might want to look more carefully at the form 4 filings footnotes. Insiders received "phantom" shares as part of their comp package. They "sold" a portion of the phantom shares (which track the performance of real GDP shares, but are not actually real shares) to cover the taxes due. The "sale" is not an open market sale of a real GDP share. It basically means they got a cash bonus based on the share price and surrendered a portion of the bonus to pay the taxes.

  • Reply to

    GDP in debt danger?

    by nsleesman Dec 20, 2014 10:39 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 21, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    They didn't seem very concerned about that covenant on the last conference call. Perhaps it's because of the pending 61 mil asset sale will lower debt. Perhaps it's because of hedging and hedging gains. Perhaps it's because they could sell hedges for large gains. Perhaps it's because production (largely hedged) is increasing so Q4 EBIDTA will be higher. Perhaps it's because that getting a waiver (after paying a small fee if) they do slightly violate a covenant is not uncommon.

  • Reply to

    GDP in debt danger?

    by nsleesman Dec 20, 2014 10:39 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 21, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    Fact: I didn't own GDP at $30 in June 2014. I've been buying GDPAN and GDP-PD over the last couple of weeks. Like how those traded last week. I'm not in the GDP common, but it had a good move last week. If I use your logic does trading last week prove they are not in trouble? Does the rally in the common prove the asset sale will successfully close in a few days? Here are a few more inconvenient facts for shorts by the way. GDP is only 50% drawn on their bank credit line. The bank credit line is only 1/5 of their debt. Insiders have been buying bonds. The amount they owe on the credit line will drop more when they close the gas asset sale shortly.

  • Reply to

    GDP in debt danger?

    by nsleesman Dec 20, 2014 10:39 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 21, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Here's the actual discussion from the seeking alpha transcript of the Q3 conf call. CFO says he doesn't see a problem with the 4X covenant issue. Definitely an issue to watch, but I don't think it's a critical issue that shorty should be hanging his hat on. If they close the asset sale next week, the issue probably goes away. Maybe hedge gains add to EBIDTA. Maybe they pay a small fee to the bank to waive the covenant. CFO certainly didn't seem to be losing any sleep over it:

    Phillips Johnston - Capital One Securities, Inc., Research Division
    Okay. And then now just a question for Jan. You're in compliance with all of your financial covenants, but can you talk about where the third quarter shook out just on a net debt-to-EBITDA basis, as defined and calculated by the, I guess, the 4x maximum covenant? And maybe what you project going forward.

    Jan L. Schott - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President
    We were below our -- I think our covenant is the 4x total debt-to-EBITDAX, we were slightly below that, but don't see a problem going forward with what we have in place with our credit facility and the financial covenants, so...

  • deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 21, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    Sorry shorty, but oil is trading higher.

  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Lots of BS being posted. Oil trading within a few cents of flat this morning. GDP higher in pre-market. 61 mil asset sale expected to close this week.

    Disc: Long GDPAN & GDP-PD

  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    Just put solar panels on my house in Delaware. Went with a no money down lease option from Sungevity. Use Referral code 1147466 at their web site to get the same deal I did which was the 20 years lease with no money down and $500 cash back when the system gets turned on. I locked in 12.5 cents / kWh for 20 years and my local utility is already at 15 cents / kWh. No hassles with the install (took 2 days onsite) and I'm not responsible for any maintenance or insurance costs. Paperwork and sales process was easy. SCTY is a good choice also, but I went with Sungevity as I liked their no-money down lease option. Getting the quote was easy also. No onsite visit needed. They looked at the house in google earth and did the quote based on that. System production is guaranteed and lease payments get reduced if the production is less than the guaranteed amount, It's pretty much foolproof savings if you live in a state like Delaware with high electric rates and high state rebate. Delaware paid several thousand dollars towards my 7KW system (thank you tax paying suckers) which allowed the vendor to lease it on such great terms to me with no money down.

  • Reply to

    Just Put Solar Panels on my house!

    by deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 3:08 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    Solar is really a good deal if you live in a state with high electric rates and state incentives like Delaware. I can't believe how much the taxpayers chipped in for my system - LOL. The incentives are nuts and it's almost like free money to pay no money down for a lease, get 500 cash back and lock in a lower electric rate for 20 years. I know that SCTY is a good company, but Sungevity (Use referral code 1147466 to get the $500 cash back bonus) did a good job on my house and am giving them a plug. Makes sense to get a couple of quotes to keep SCTY honest even if you like them.

  • Reply to

    Just Put Solar Panels on my house!

    by deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 3:08 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    They are still private and not in every state, but not a tiny company. I was impressed and would consider participating if they did an IPO. It actually took the power company (Delmarva) almost as long to do the paperwork so the system could be turned on as it took to get it installed.

  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Dec 23, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    So the 61 mil natural gas asset sale closed right on time and for the previously announced amount. Guess the shorts don't want to talk about that. Think the CFO had that in mind when he said they would hit the 4X EBIDTA covenant so they can keep paying my preferred dividends. Liquidity just jumped from 135 mil to 180 mil and don't hold your breath for $20 oil or even $50. Tax loss selling is ending. Time to covers shorts.

  • Reply to

    Shorts

    by nostracumass Dec 23, 2014 9:51 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 24, 2014 12:30 AM Flag

    GDP already bottomed near $3 and has been heading higher since then. The bottom is already in on the preferred issues as well. The par 50 GDPAN preferred convertible is trading at 11.50. That's 23 cents on the dollar. Haven't seen values like that in high yield preferred issues since the financial sector preferred issues right after the financial crisis.

  • Reply to

    Just Put Solar Panels on my house!

    by deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 3:08 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 24, 2014 12:46 AM Flag

    In doing the paperwork to sign over the Delaware grants to the leasing company, I noticed that the grant amounts would have been about twice as large for a non-profit organization installing the same system. Any Church or non-profit in Delaware that hasn't done this is passing up free money.
    I think it's really foolish of Delaware (situations is similar for some other states) taxpayers to contribute several thousand dollars to put solar panels on my roof. What a bunch of suckers! Most solar systems get installed on expensive homes. This is a reverse robin hood program to subsidize well off home owners - LOL. Don't see why taxpayers should pay 2X as much to subsidize a church. Don't see why they want to pay thousands to help me get low lease payments, but no reason to turn down free money when it's offered. If I don't take it someone else will.
    Anyway, if anyone is looking at getting a Sungevity quote and has questions, drop me an email. Yahoo mail is mrpanick. From what I've seen solar is a great deal for the consumer and a terrible deal for the taxpayers who insist on subsidizing it. I believe the same is true for SCTY.

  • Reply to

    Just Put Solar Panels on my house!

    by deep_value_investor Dec 22, 2014 3:08 PM
    deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 24, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    True, but I still wouldn't give them a plug if they hadn't done a good job on my house and it wasn't really a good deal. People thinking of putting panels on their roof, should get a couple of quotes and see how the bids come in.

  • deep_value_investor by deep_value_investor Dec 26, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    The politicians are already looking to take advantage of cheap oil and nat gas prices to implement massive taxes. My utility has high electric rates because they already pay massive taxes and have expensive mandates. On one hand you have massive taxes on electricity and on the other hand the state and federal govt pay you huge incentives to generate your own. I think it's a crazy system, but anyone not putting solar panels on their house is paying massive taxes and passing up free money.

    Disc: Installed Sungevity system on my house. Very pleased with it. Use ref code 1147466 to get their $500 cash back deal.

  • deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 26, 2014 8:34 PM Flag

    Oil was down today and you shorts struggled hard to close GDP below 5. The stock wants to go higher. Keep dreaming about $2. The bottom is already in.

  • deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 28, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Could be the last chance for shorts to cover below $5.

  • deep_value_investor deep_value_investor Dec 28, 2014 8:15 PM Flag

    It's unbelievable how fast they see an "opportunity" and want to tax it - LOL. The taxes that go on your electric bill are already endless and that's still not enough for them. I'm not worried about "climate change". Putting solar panels on your roof is the only way to lock in lower electric and take the "tax me more" bullseye off your back.

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