Short SBUX, it's heading lower so why fight it.
Schultz was too greedy and now Karma's gonna bite him in the #$%$
It looks like the people are mad about the fact that Schultz won't lower bean prices, and so they will sell SBUX and short it. Probably not a good idea to buy now, since odds favor the stock plunging.
Gee, the chart doesn't look so good, do you guys think I should short this stock soon?
Spot prices are much lower now. If they do not lower prices even modestly, then this stock needs to be shorted. Schultz is a greedy SOB.
According to Google Finance, they have a debt:equity ratio of over 3x. If this is true, then they are way overleveraged but I guess they can get away with it if they are in cahoots with the other telcoms.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I agree. TWC is the pits. Their telcom monopoly is unacceptable. I too am going to short this stock when prices begin to break down. Only way to recoup the ripoff they perpetrate on forced subscribers.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I'd rather be a big dick than a big pu$$y like most of the "pros" on this MB
Only real guts I've seen here is Dumping, as annoying as he is, at least he was posting what he was doing as soon as it happened and I could see it
Oh yeah on February 12 I bought 20,000 shares of CKR at 8.30 and sold it all this morning at 11.20, man what a trade, I think I'll go get me a double guacamole bacon cheeseburger and an x-large fries, can't drink the coke though, my teeth are rotting
Like in any other situation in life, there are the stronger and there are the weaker, and so it goes within companies and their stock - you have a number of offshore drillers, and the SP of some will perform better than the SP of others, be it due to fundamentals, technicals, or any combination thereof, hedge funds, etc.
Right now, based on my comparison, RIG has really one of the weaker, whereas NE is definitely one of the stronger.
I am not saying to short RIG during a rally; I am saying that if you want to trade the offshore drillers long and short, buy NE (rather than RIG) during strong rallies (which should of course be accompanied by a falling USD/rising CL situation), and during overbought/bearish reversal situations, short RIG (and not NE). This way you are buying the leader and shorting the laggard. Right now a lot of folks here are supposedly buying a stock that is slowly beginning to trend downward, rather than buying a stock that is more stable.
A lot of technical damage has occurred on RIG (moving averages starting to point south), so while there will naturally be rallies off of oversold conditions (such as now), short sellers will be more aggressive on overbought conditions. The only safe haven is the fact that the 50 and 200 day moving averages are still bullishly aligned, and that CL is holding up pretty well.
Current price targets for RIG are anywhere from $74 to as low as $59, though I doubt it would even break $60 since major support is around $65.
Also, the frequency with which some of these so-called trades are occurring usually requires good technical foundations and does not require in-depth fundamentals, since a lot of scalping is being done and not any longer-term momentum, which is what I've been pondering with RIG, which to me is a better buy at lower prices, but again, NE seems like a better company to own.
I agree with some others here who assert that nearly all your posts about your winning trades occurred well after the market moved. The one that's really hilarious: "I shorted SPY after the Consumer Confidence number came out." However, you did not post this at 10 am ET that day, and you posted nothing about this trade until that evening when you made this claim.
Yeah, I shorted RIG on May 19, 2008, at $162.95, and covered RIG and went long on December 23, 2008, at $42.00 and sold on January 11, 2010 at $94.75, but sorry, I forgot to post it - I didn't know I needed to post real time, but I sure did OK...
I'm simply asking: please post your trades real time like you're asking me or anyone else to if you want real credibility. Not doing so devalidates anything you post.
Also, look at my RIG chart that I yesterday linked on my original post, and tell me what you see. And you also, please link some charts showing your TA skills and how you're arriving at your "assertions"; I would love to see how skilled you are at TA.
Another illiterate - not trading RIG, but if I did, I would short at $85, not $78, and I'd watch the 50 and 200 day moving averages since they're converging now.
ANd I realize RIG is not the best offshore driller to own at current levels; NE and ESV are better, and trading action has made that clear to me.
If one is playing swings then ANR, FCX, those are easier since they're truly running counter to the DXY action.
Do you even bother to look at the DXY? It's overbought and topping out at resistance now and that is what spurred the rally. Oil dropped because it was overbought but when gold was up early, that was a tell.
About Guy Adami, he's a joke - saying to buy FCX if it goes above a certain price, and saying to sell FCX if it falls to a certain price - buy high end of the range and sell low end of the range?
About RIG, the price action today was the same as the price action on February 5th - short-term overextended, and riding a broad market short squeeze. I would've thought you knew that since you sound quite sophisticated when it comes to TA.
RIG will clearly be an underperformer with the $OSX so better to run a pair trade via long NE and short RIG, which would be a much better buy at $70-$75.
I'll admit, the BS on this message board amazes me, from what I've read only straight shooter here is Petroglyph.
I'm glad I switched to trading oil and ANR instead.
Updated here, with a chart
Something was clearly wrong with RIG when it could not even keep up with the Dow Oil & Gas Index for the mid February rally.
For me, Oil (long DBO, short via long DTO) has been a better trade.
There will probably be a lot of supply feeding at the 40-week now that it will act as resistance.
No - I don't need to watch money flow to see when the market's going to reverse. I use something else. Besides, the sellers are in control, so it's a matter of watching how they behave, rather than how bulls are behaving.
What prompted your initial short at 84.50 at the open? Did watching money flow prompt you to short at that price? If so then I'd say the money flow didn't work and ultimately took a back seat to routine market behavior, of which if you understood it more you'd have a better chart set up to put on a better short.
According to my chart, selling pressure was rather light going into the close. If continued selling occurs thru Tuesday and I don't see a reading like the ones that occurred last Thursday and Friday morning, then you can be that the next oversold reading will bring some aggressive buying.
If you recall my posts over the weekend, I tried to make it clear that the so-called 'bullish tail reversal' bar on Friday occurred as a result of short-covering at an extremely oversold reading (and not during an exhaustion of the downtrend) - and that prices would bounce back up to the (falling) 5-day moving average. Well, prices breached the 5-day this morning, but the high today occurred at gap resistance (around 86) and eventually supply pushed prices back down. I did have an intraday overbought signal at that high 85 level but not on my other chart, and if you look at the nature of the slide from the high, it was a very slow one, which to me seems more bullish.
And I'm saying Tuesday or Wednesday, primarily because the Dollar is churning at resistance and quite overbought (and look at the heavy volume of the UUP the last 2 days while checking out the relatively low volume on the GLD today). The only caveat with the Dollar is that there is a clear uptrendline, which is probably the dark cloud hanging over being long the commodity group for more than a few days.
If I'm wrong and it happens at week's end, fine, I'll wait, but right now I feel better waiting for a long rather than taking on a short this late into the move, unless I get the proper signal to do so.
If I wake early Tuesday and see the futures way up, I will kick myself for not buying at 1:59 pm on Friday and then put in a buy stop or wait for an intraday oversold signal I guess. Anyways, your wait-and-see approach is sound and I agree with it completely, which is why I did not buy into the close today.
The key is to watch the Dollar Index, as it is showing increasing longer-term momentum to the upside. It forged a higher low in November and has had a strong move off of it. Currently it is testing the 80.75 level (previously failed support and where a falling 40-month moving average is), and should it clear this then next overhead resistance would be around 85, in the form of a falling 80-month moving average and a downtrendline connecting the 2002 and 2009 highs. Should this 85 resistance hold, the Dollar will top and will have formed a triangle pattern. Of course, a topping dollar should fuel a rally in the commodity groups, if for even a short time.
The strong Yen and the collapsing Euro have also been interesting to watch, but the Dollar is most important for gauging moves in the commodity groups and my feeling is that price action will remain choppy until we do get out of that congestion, but it will depend on how far the Dollar will go. Thus, keep an eye on it.
Thank you again. Let me do some further investigating at their respective websites. I will admit that I was initially considering NE before Transocean due to their low debt in addition to the Brazil exposure.
Finally, in addition to your current holdings, do you hold a land driller (Nabors or Helmerich & Payne, those types) as well?