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Alliance Resource Partners LP Message Board

deeremanuk 3 posts  |  Last Activity: May 29, 2016 3:02 PM Member since: Dec 3, 2001
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  • With the VIX @ 13.12, M6 @ 15.38 and N6 @ 17.60 the contango is well above normal. If VIX stays flat a $75 SVXY by the end of summer is possible. Five things which could spoil this scenario:
    1. FED raises rates while economic data reverts to 1st qtr levels
    2. BREXIT - looks like it will be defeated but a major terror attack could change this
    3. Oil prices drop as glut is taken off hold - need oil to stay over $40
    4. S&P once again bounces off 2100 and 2025 support fails - with GAAP PE so high this is possible
    5. China has hard landing

  • deeremanuk by deeremanuk May 17, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    It happens once a month when the value of VXX is 100% dependent on one option. With VIX up in early trading M6 is quiet - fools rush in!

  • The S&P has formed an almost picture perfect "head & shoulders" reversal point with the only thing missing is the piercing of the neck line support preferably on strong volume. If this occurs Monday, which I think is probable, the upside potential on VXX is huge! If the above occurs I'm going to also buy UVXY and sell SVXY calls.

ARLP
15.52-0.48(-3.00%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT